Differences of Opinion of Public Information and Speculative Trading in Stocks and Options

We analyze the effects of differences of opinion on the dynamicsof trading volume in stocks and options. We find that disagreementsabout the mean of the current- and next-period public informationlead to trading in stocks in the current period but have noeffect on options trading. Without options, we find that disagreementsabout the precision of all past and current public informationaffect trading in stocks in the current period. With options,only disagreements about the precisions of the next- and current-periodinformation affect stocks and options trading in the currentperiod. Our results suggest that options trading is concentratedaround information events that are likely to cause disagreementsamong investors, whereas trading in stocks may be diffusiveover many periods.     

Focus Groups and the Development of New Products by Technologically Driven Companies: Some Guidelines

Manufacturers of consumer goods frequently have used focus group discussions to learn about consumers' reactions to both new and existing products. Typically, results of these discussions have led to the exploration of new concepts and the identification of new opportunities. Edward McQuarrie and Shelby McIntyre have developed a series of practical guidelines to help industrial and technological companies use focus groups during the process of concept development and refinement. The group's discussion provides insight into how the product may be received by buyers in the marketplace.     

Targeting Child Labor in Debt Bondage: Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications

Despite recent multilateral efforts to single out child laborin debt bondage as one of the worst forms of child labor, severalimportant questions have yet to be addressed: How pervasiveis the phenomenon? Are there systematic correlations betweenthe incidence of children in debt bondage and the economic,legislative, and financial development indicators of the economy?How does an understanding of these correlates affect the waynational and international policy measures aimed at targetingthis form of child labor are perceived? This article addresseseach of these questions. The empirical findings suggest strongcorrelation between the likelihood of the incidence of childlabor in debt bondage with the stage of development of an economy,the stage of financial development, and enforcement of corelabor rights. Building on this evidence, the article presentsa theoretical model that highlights the drawbacks and meritsof a number of policies aimed at putting checks on child laborin debt bondage.     

Note on the behavior of residual security returns for winner and loser portfolios

Portfolios are formed directly and exclusively upon residual return behavior in the months prior to portfolio formation. The empirical behavior of residual return in the post-formation period is then examined. Based upon the overall time period studied (1932 through 1977), the average residual return is essentially zero in the months subsequent to the portfolio formation. However, systematic (i.e., non-zero) residual behavior is observed in particular years. Moreover, the results suggest the possibility that ‘abnormal’ returns observed after certain events (e.g., earnings announcements) may at least in part reflect more general phenomena associated with being ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in terms of residual returns in the months previous to the event.     

University education in futures studies: A Mark III survey

Following two earlier analyses (1970 and 1972), the Mark III survey of 1974 explores the extent and quality of university education in disciplines identifiable as future-oriented. The initial research revealed a somewhat stagnant situation. There is a decline in systematic futures courses at the university level, while there is now a stronger trend towards “futurisation” of conventional subjects on one hand, and to practice-oriented non-university educational activities on the other. The most significant developments appeared in long-range planning, policy studies and peace research. Representation of methodologies shows systems research as perhaps the most, and social sciences as a less important contributor. Identification of “futurism” and clarification of the concept remains the dominant problem.