Response style corrected market segmentation for ordinal data

Survey data collected for market segmentation studies is typically ordinal in nature. As such, it is susceptible to response styles. Ignoring response styles can lead to market segments which do not differ in beliefs, but merely in how segment members use survey answer options and which possibly occur in addition to the belief segments. We propose a finite mixture model which simultaneously segments and corrects for response styles, permits heterogeneity in both beliefs and response styles, accommodates a range of different response styles, does not impose a certain relationship between the response style and belief segments, and is suitable for ordinal data. The performance of the model is tested using both artificial and empirical survey data.     

A Sample Survey Based Linguistic MADM Method with Prospect Theory for Online Shopping Problems

In MADM problems, the attributes are often rated in linguistic variables, some researchers transform them into numerical values through some formulas. However, it might be inconsistent with real human thinking in some extent. In order to deal with such problems, a sample survey based MADM method with prospect theory is proposed. Firstly, through sampling survey, we collect the data in single point format corresponding to the words, and establish the codebook by mapping words into fuzzy sets, after that fuzzy operation rules are suitable for them. Secondly, based on the reference points, the gain and/or loss matrix is obtained, in accordance with the value function, the prospect value matrix is constructed. Finally, if the attributes are independent, the weighted prospect value of each alternative is computed, if the attributes are dependent, the Choquet integral based prospect value of each alternative is computed. The alternatives are ranked in descending order respect to the defuzzified values. The first alternative is chosen as the best decision result. The feasibility of the proposed method is illustrated through an application in online shopping problem from real life.     

A Sealed-Bid Two-Attribute Yardstick Auction Without Prior Scoring

We analyze a two-attribute single item procurement auction that uses yardstick competition to settle prices. The auction simplifies the procurement process by reducing the principal’s articulation of preferences to simply choosing the most preferred offer as if it was a market with posted prices. This is done simply by replacing the submitted sealed bids by yardstick bids, computed by a linear weighting of the other participants’ bids. We show that there is only one type of Nash equilibria where some agents may win the auction by submitting a zero price-bid. Using a simulation study we demonstrate that following this type of equilibrium behavior often leads to winner’s curse. The simulations show that in auctions with more than 12 participants the chance of facing winner’s curse is around 95 %. Truthful reporting, on the other hand, does not constitute a Nash equilibrium but it is ex post individually rational. Using a simulation study we demonstrate that truthful bidding may indeed represent some kind of focal point.     

Multiple Attribute Group Decision Making Method Based on Utility Theory Under Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Environment

In this paper, a kind of multiple attribute group decision making problem is studied, where there is no original information about the weights of importance of the attributes and the decision makers (DMs), and the attribute values are given in the form of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IVIFNs). To solve this problem, a new method is proposed based on utility theory. In the proposed method, the weights of importance of the DMs and the attributes are all determined by using the intuitionistic indexes of related IVIFNs. And then, the alternatives are compared by using their composite interval indexes which are generated based on utility theory. Finally, two numerical examples are proposed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Tourist Satisfaction and Destination Image of Vietnam's Ha Long Bay

Although considerable work has been done on destination image as a whole, far less research has investigated the differences in destination image assessments for domestic versus international visitors in developing countries. This study offers findings that illustrate the differences in perception of destination image, satisfaction attributes, and intention among domestic and international visitors to Ha Long Bay, a United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization World Heritage Site in Vietnam. The results of a survey on 650 tourists suggest that international visitors to the Ha Long Bay region have higher standards and are more critical in their evaluation of services than domestic visitors when judging this destination. Destination image is a common factor determining the level of satisfaction of both groups. Basic and augmented services were found to influence international visitors’ future intention toward the destination. This finding implies that the destination managers of Ha Long Bay need to improve current standard of augmented services to yield higher visitors’ propensity to recommend and return to the destination.     

The Business Economist’s Toolkit

Business economists are not members of the high church of academic orthodoxy. Our tool kit includes research functions, such as business cycle analysis, demographics research, data analytics, primary research, diversity of thought, and client research. It also includes personal skills that should be cultivated and practiced, such as curiosity, maintaining a nonpartisan view, humility, courage, and effective communication.     

Reserves and cash flows under stochastic retirement

Uncertain time of retirement and uncertain structure of retirement benefits are risk factors for life insurance companies. Nevertheless, classical life insurance models assume these are deterministic. In this paper, we include the risk from stochastic time of retirement and stochastic benefit structure in a classical finite-state Markov model for a life insurance contract. We include discontinuities in the distribution of the retirement time. First, we derive formulas for appropriate scaling of the benefits according to the time of retirement and discuss the link between the scaling and the guarantees provided. Stochastic retirement creates a need to rethink the construction of disability products for high ages and ways to handle this are discussed. We show how to calculate market reserves and how to use modified transition probabilities to calculate expected cash flows without significantly more complexity than in the traditional model. At last, we demonstrate the impact of stochastic retirement on market reserves and expected cash flow in numerical examples.     

Fiscal policy reforms and dynamic Laffer effects

This paper looks at the conditions under which a dynamic Laffer effect occurs. Using a basic model, we explain and reconcile selected findings in the literature. We numerically show that a lower tax rate on capital income is the best candidate for obtaining a dynamic Laffer effect—here defined as an improvement in the long-run budget balance of the government. Moreover, ignoring the stock of initial debt and changes in labor supply lead to an overestimation and underestimation of the effect, respectively. Finally, we show that when lower taxes on factor income are financed by higher taxes on consumption, there exists a wide array of combinations for which there is an improvement in both the long-run government budget balance and lifetime welfare. These combinations, however, differ in their implications for labor supply and immediate welfare effects.     

Does conditionality in IMF-supported programs promote revenue reform?

This paper studies whether revenue conditionality in Fund programs had any impact on the revenue performance of 126 low- and middle-income countries during 1993–2013. The results indicate that such conditionality had a positive impact on tax revenue, with strongest improvement felt on taxes on goods and services, including the VAT. Revenue conditionality matters more for low-income countries, particularly those where revenue ratios are below the group average. Moreover, revenue conditionality appears to be more effective when targeted to a specific tax. These results hold after controlling for potential endogeneity, sample selection bias, and when revenues are adjusted for economic cycle.     

The political economy of pricing and capacity decisions for congestible local public goods in a federal state

This paper studies the political economy of pricing and investment for excludable and congestible public goods in a federal state. Although the model applies to many local congestible public facilities (such as libraries, museums and public swimming facilities), our main motivation is the problem of providing and pricing road infrastructure in federal states. The two-region model we develop allows for spill-overs between regions, it takes into account congestion, and it captures demand heterogeneity both between and within regions. Regional decisions are taken by majority voting; federal decisions are taken by a minimum winning coalition in a legislature of regionally elected representatives. We have the following results. First, when users form the majority in at least one region, decentralized decision making performs certainly better than centralized decision making if spill-overs are not too large. Centralized decisions may yield higher welfare than decentralization only if users have a large majority and the infrastructure in a given region is intensively used by both local and outside users. Second, if non-users form a majority in both regions, centralized decision making and decentralized decision making yield the same socially undesirable outcome, with prices that are much too high. Third, the performance of decentralized supply is strongly enhanced by local self-financing rules; this prevents potential exploitation of users within regions.