Game Theory and Economic Modelling. by David M. Kreps

Data from the National Science Foundation (2014) indicate that at least one PhD in economics was awarded to a Swarthmore College graduate in every year since 1966. The authors’ purpose in this article is to consider factors that may have contributed to the high number of PhDs in economics awarded to Swarthmore College graduates. While there is little doubt that self-selection plays a significant role, they describe curricular and environmental aspects of the economics department at Swarthmore that may have contributed to this outcome.     

In Memory of Michael Watts (November 3, 1950–December 5, 2014)

In an experimental economics simulation, Ukrainian teachers of economics chose free riding responses at a rate similar to those found by Leuthold in an undergraduate class on public economics at the University of Illinois. The authors speculate that those who become academic economists may do so because they have certain insights in deductive logic.     

Relevance weighted likelihood for dependent data

The relevance-weighted likelihood function weights individual contributions to the likelihood according to their relevance for the inferential problem of interest. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the weighted maximum likelihood estimator were previously proved for independent sequences of random variables. We extend these results to apply to dependent sequences, and, in so doing, provide a unified approach to a number of diverse problems in dependent data. In particular, we provide a heretofore unknown approach for dealing with heterogeneity in adaptive designs, and unify the smoothing approach that appears in many foundational papers for independent data. Applications are given in clinical trials, psychophysics experiments, time series models, transition models, and nonparametric regression. Received: April 2000     

Herding in analyst earnings forecasts: evidence from the United Kingdom

We present an empirical analysis of herding behavior in analyst forecasts of earnings-per-share. Herding is defined as 'excessive agreement' among analyst predictions, i.e., a surprising degree of consensus relative to the predictability of corporate earnings. The data are for U.K. companies between 1986 and 1997. We examine the effects of forecast horizon and analyst coverage on forecast accuracy and dispersion. The evidence supports overoptimism, overreaction, and herding in analyst forecasts.
G1, G14     

Should you set up your own sales force or should you outsource it? Pitfalls in the standard analysis

Should you set up your own sales force or should you outsource it? The standard analysis is cost based and assumes that the direct sales force is a fixed cost and that the outsourced sales force's cost varies with sales. The standard analysis then calculates the sales volume at which the direct sales force's costs equal the outsourced sales force's costs and suggests that for sales volume above that quantity, firms should use a direct sales force. This analysis has two problems. First, several other cost factors are not considered in the standard analysis. Second, the standard analysis considers only cost, ignoring coverage efficiency and selling effectiveness differences between the two sales forces. Both problems will be detailed and developed in this paper.     

Economic impacts of highway infrastructure improvements part 2. The operational model and its application to Ontario communities

The environmental assessment process in Ontario requires an assessment of the economic impacts of highway infrastructure improvements. This paper describes an operational model that is based on the analytical framework introduced in Kanaroglou et al (1997). The model makes use of widely available data and can be used as a planning tool for fast and efficient assessment of short term direct and indirect local economic impacts in terms of a community's sectoral employment levels. The accuracy of the assessment can be improved by modifying the model parameters using information collected locally. The model can presently be applied to communities in Ontario.