An Alternative for Time Series Models

Two methods for construction of new stochastic processes with discrete time are presented. One of the methods employs as the defining tool “triangular （more specifically ＇pseudoaffine＇） transformations” which are extended from the Euclidean R^n to infinite dimension space. They transform any well-known discrete time stochastic process into the constructed one. The other more flexible method is the “method of parameter dependence”, extended to infinite dimension. Properties of the obtained stochastic processes （by either method） indicate the possibility to apply them for financial analysis, as an alternative for the classical time series models. The advantage of the presented models over the existing ones first of all relies on expected better accuracy. This follows from the fact that the typically held assumption on Markovianity in the existing models can easily be relaxed. The defined processes may incorporate a quite long memory including, among others, the k-Markovian cases for k _〉 2. Regardless the non-Markovianity of the models they still are tractable in an analytical or numerical way. The stochastic processes defined in this paper provide more flexible and more general tools than the existing time series models for modeling financial problems. Among others, they make it possible to incorporate the influence of environmental （explanatory） random variables on the underlying stochastic models＇ behavior. These additional features turn out to be describable by the method of parameter dependence. Some suggestions for an associated preliminary statistical analysis are included.     

Political hazards,experience, and sequential entry strategies: the international expansion of Japanese firms, 1980–1998

We find support for the role of experiential learning in the international expansion process by extending the stages model of internationalization to incorporate a sophisticated consideration of temporal and cross‐national variation in the credibility of the policy environment. Using a sample of 3857 international expansions of 665 Japanese manufacturing firms, we build on the concepts of uncertainty and experiential learning, to show that firms that had gathered relevant types of international experience were less sensitive to the deterring effect of uncertain policy environments on investment. One implication of our results is that research on international strategy should emphasize understanding the political institutions that constrain or enable political actors, just as entry mode research has done. A second implication is that research in the stages model of internationalization should give the same weight to the policy environment as a source of uncertainty to a firm, as it has given to cultural, social and market institutions. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dividend-Driven Trading Strategies: Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange

This study presents an analysis of dividend-driven trading strategies based on dividend yield growth effects in the Polish stock market in the years 1994–2004. Results indicate that the dividend yield growth portfolios were capable of beating the market in the entire sample period. Their performance, however, was not consistent over time and the highest returns were obtained during final years. Empirical findings based on the analysis of different types of portfolios demonstrate the importance of dividends as a source of significant fundamental information items from stock market companies. At the same time, they show that a dividend investment strategy for the Polish stock market is most successful when the selection of stocks for the dividend yield growth portfolios is subject to further restrictions, most notably concerning company size.

Privatization of state-owned enterprises in Poland

The transition from centrally planned to market economies in Eastern Europe has become a field of debate in economic literature since the late 1980s. Privatization plays a very important role because it is also a sensitive political problem. Privatization is a key element of the several reform packages that are being applied in Poland. This paper examines the different ways that small- and medium-sized enterprises were privatized from 1990 to 1995 using statistical data of the Ministry of Privatization [1995]. Analyzed enterprises are presented by the following group of projects. Capital privatization, direct foreign investment, joint stock companies awaiting privatization, and other methods of privatization are connected with the special program designed for firms with bad financial standing.     

The institutional environment for multinational investment

This article posits that the effect of political hazards onthe choice of market entry mode varies across multinationalfirms based on the extent to which they face expropriation hazardsfrom their potential joint-venture partners in the host country(the level of contractual hazards). As political hazards increase,the multinational faces an increasing threat of opportunisticexpropriation by the government. Partnering with host-countryfirms that possess a comparative advantage in interactions withthe host-country government can safeguard against this hazard.However, as contractual hazards increase, the potential benefitto the joint-venture partner of manipulating the political systemfor it's own benefit at the expense of the multinational increasesas well, thereby diminishing the hazard-mitigating benefit offorming a joint venture. A two-stage bivariate probit estimationtechnique is used to test these hypotheses on a sample of 3,389overseas manufacturing operations by 461 firms in 112 countries.     

Social and economic changes: Poland 1989–95

The systematic transformation in Poland began with enormous expectations of the people concerning results of the re-establishment of the market economy and economic freedom. Four and a half years after the start of reform, overwhelming popular disillusionment and frustrations have caused the spectacular comeback of the post-Communists. Some of the frustrations have been rooted in the radical changes in income distribution and the growth of poverty. An even more important factor than changes in wages and other income distribution has been changes in the relative position of different professions, sectors of economic activity, and industries and regions.     

Effective Management of Own Funds in Polish Cooperative Banks

Today cooperative banks belong to the most significant financial institution in the world. Moreover, they can compete with commercial banks. The own funds of the cooperative bank are important in their activity. The main goal of this paper is to investigate how much the level of the own funds of the Polish cooperative banks influenced their efficiency. The research pertained to operating cooperative banks in Poland. The following measures of the efficiency were used in the research： return on Equity （ROE）, net profit, index C/I, and financial margin. The results of the study indicate that banks from the Quartile III （highest aggregate own funds）, had the highest net profits, the highest ROE, the lowest C/I value, the lowest ROE, and the lowest financial markups. On this basis, it remains to be recommended that banks of highest aggregate own funds continue expansion of own funds which will increase lending capacity and subsequently contribute to higher effectiveness.     

Technological substitution forecasting with a model based on biological analogy

Although many models of technological substitution processes exist, only a few deal with multilevel technological substitution and still fewer may be easily applied to forecasting of real multilevel substitution processes. We propose a stochastic model of multilevel technological substitution and a forecasting method based on this model. In the author's opinion, the developed algorithm may be easily applied to forecasting various technological substitution processes. An example of the application of this algorithm to forecasting of world energy consumption is presented. The algorithm makes possible an investigation of the impact of future innovation on the system's behavior.