The Evolution of Gay Travel Research

This paper explores literature relating to the gay travel market. It argues that the current discourse in this area has largely concentrated on the demand‐led approaches such as the motivations and demographic profiles of gay travellers and the use of gay space. However, in light of societal change as well as the increasing role of technology, there is a need to revisit the demographic, motivational and behavioural characteristics of gay travellers, particularly in the context of their use of gay space. With this in mind, this paper highlights a number of significant opportunities for future research into the gay travel market. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Microfinance institutions and public policy

Many governments and nongovernmental organizations have adopted policies to promote the growth of microfinance institutions (MFIs). The appropriate level and form of support for MFIs are discussed in this paper on the basis of a review of key MFI characteristics. Governments are also responsible for the regulation of MFIs; here, some principles concerning the extent and coverage of MFI regulation and supervision are developed.     

Developing Mortality Improvement Formulas

Abstract

Longevity improvements have contributed to widespread underfunding of pension plans and losses in insured annuity portfolios. Insurers might reasonably expect some upside from the effect of lower mortality on their life business. Although mortality improvement scales, such as the Society of Actuaries Scale AA, are widely employed in pension and annuity valuation, the derivation of these scales appears heuristic, leading to problems in deriving meaningful measures of uncertainty. We explore the evidence on mortality trends for the Canadian life insurance companies, data, using stochastic models. We use the more credible population data to benchmark the insured lives data. Finally, we derive a practical, model-based formula for actuaries to incorporate mortality improvement and the associated uncertainty into their calculations.     

Measuring Basis Risk in Longevity Hedges

Abstract

In examining basis risk in index longevity hedges, it is important not to ignore the dependence between the population underlying the hedging instrument and the population being hedged. We consider four extensions to the Lee-Carter model that incorporate such dependence: Both populations are jointly driven by the same single time-varying index, the two populations are cointegrated, the populations depend on a common age factor, and there is an augmented common factor model in which a population-specific time-varying index is added to the common factor model with the property that it will tend toward a certain constant level over time. Using data from the female populations of Canada and the United States, we show the augmented common factor model is preferred in terms of both goodness-of-fit and ex post forecasting performance. This model is then used to quantify the basis risk in a longevity hedge of 65-year old Canadian females structured using a portfolio of q-forward contracts predicated on U.S. female population mortality. The hedge effectiveness is estimated at 56% on the basis of longevity value-at-risk and 81.61% on the basis of longevity risk reduction.     

Markovian Approaches to Joint-Life Mortality

Abstract

Many insurance products provide benefits that are contingent on the combined survival status of two lives. To value such benefits accurately, we require a statistical model for the impact of the survivorship of one life on another. In this paper we first set up two models, one Markov and one semi-Markov, to model the dependence between the lifetimes of a husband and wife. From the models we can measure the extent of three types of dependence: (1) the instantaneous dependence due to a catastrophic event that affect both lives, (2) the short-term impact of spousal death, and (3) the long-term association between lifetimes. Then we apply the models to a set of jointlife and last-survivor annuity data from a large Canadian insurance company. Given the fitted models, we study the impact of dependence on annuity values and examine the potential inaccuracy in pricing if we assume lifetimes are independent. Finally, we compare our Markovian models with two copula models considered in previous research on modeling joint-life mortality.     

Predictability of stock markets with disequilibrium trading

This paper analyses the predictability of a hypothetical market with freely negotiated prices on which exists a censoring of one-period returns which are in excess of an arbitrary level (‘floor’ and ‘ceiling’). It is shown that the expected value of returns (adjusted for drift) conditional on last period information regarding the censoring are equal to zero (and therefore the market is not predictable in mean) if there is no intertemporal spillover on the market. A simple simulation model is proposed and applied for the analysis of the effects of intertemporal and cross-spillovers resulting from quantity constraints. Statistical predictability tests are proposed, based on the corrected Student-t statistic of a regression of returns of some information concerning the previous censoring. An illustrative empirical analysis of six main time series of returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange confirms their ex-ante, but not ex-post, predictability.     

Allocation of time for meal preparation in a transition economy

The decision of how much time to allocate to meal preparation is an endogenous variable to be determined by the opportunity cost of time, preference between market and nonmarket goods and leisure, and household production technology. Using consumer survey data collected in Bulgaria in 1997, this study measured the effect of household income on the amount of time allocated to meal preparation after controlling the effects of demographic, socio‐economic and other characteristics of households. We used the first‐hurdle dominance model to distinguish non‐meal preparers from meal preparers. Since the overall pattern of allocating time between market work, household activity and leisure in a particular country is likely to be conditional on the stage of its economic development, this study presents a unique opportunity to assess the rationality of the time allocation behavior of consumers in an economy in transition from a centrally‐planned to a market‐oriented system. Results showed that household income did not influence the decision of how much time to allocate to meal preparation. While the insignificant linkage between income and time allocation to meal preparation could be due to the differences in preference and household production technology. It can be also attributed to the legacy of four decades of a central‐planning system and underdeveloped food manufacturing and service industries. ©2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.     

The Internet,employment and Polish migrant workers: communication,activism and competition in the new organisational spaces

This article discusses the content of Polish community–administered websites and trade union engagement. It is based on three sources of data, firstly, semi‐structured interviews with Polish web administrators and trade union officers in the north of England. Secondly, audits of the location of Polish administered UK websites undertaken in April 2007 and 2008. Lastly, an in‐depth thematic questionnaire was undertaken of websites in November 2008. The key findings are that the Internet is an increasingly systematic feature of new migrant politics and representation. Further the trade union movement is not ‘at odds’ with independent and virtual forms of communication and representation. It does pose questions of how to combine and coordinate these and create a more meaningful and sustainable dialogue based on a politics of empowerment.