On the Class of Erlang Mixtures with Risk Theoretic Applications

Abstract

A wide variety of distributions are shown to be of mixed-Erlang type. Useful computational formulas result for many quantities of interest in a risk-theoretic context when the claim size distribution is an Erlang mixture. In particular, the aggregate claims distribution and related quantities such as stop-loss moments are discussed, as well as ruin-theoretic quantities including infinitetime ruin probabilities and the distribution of the deficit at ruin. A very useful application of the results is the computation of finite-time ruin probabilities, with numerical examples given. Finally, extensions of the results to more general gamma mixtures are briefly examined.     

Stock Return Predictability of Residual‐Income‐Based Valuation: Risk or Mispricing?

In an influential paper, Frankel and Lee (1998) conclude that the stock return predictability of the value‐to‐price ratio (V/P) results from market mispricing. This paper confirms whether the V/P reflects the rational risk premiums associated with the V/P factor or is better explained by market inefficiency. Following Daniel and Titman (1997), this paper examines whether the V/P characteristics or the V/P factor loadings predict stock returns. The findings show that the V/P loadings are positively associated with average returns even after controlling for the V/P characteristics in both time series and cross‐sectional tests. The overall results suggest that the mispricing explanation of the V/P effect is premature.     

Factor supply interruption, welfare loss and shortage management

Factor supply shortage is a common problem faced by a firm. Solutions for allocating the limited supply include rationing, interruption and pricing. While previous research has examined the welfare losses generated by each solution, there is little evidence on their relative magnitudes within a common framework. The objective of this paper is to specify a model of firm behaviour under service interruption to estimate the welfare loss of service interruption. The same model is used to estimate the loss due to a price increase intended to resolve a supply shortage. Using water consumption data collected for Hong Kong, we find that relative to pricing, service interruption is inefficient for water shortage management.     

Cointegration analysis of the intensity of the ERM currencies under the European Monetary System

This paper examines the (long-run) intra-zonal elasticities between the spot exchange rates of the deutschemark and other major ERM currencies (French franc, Belgian franc, Dutch guilder, Danish krone, Italian lira and British pound) under the EMS. The findings show that under the fixed-but-adjustable rate system, the hypothesis of no cointegration can be rejected for all chosen ERM currency pairs and unit restriction on zonal elasticities can be accepted for almost all cointegrated currency pairs. On the other hand, under the fixed-rate system, Danish krone, Italian lira and British pound fail the cointegration test and the zonal elasticities for all cointegrated currency pairs are rejected to be unity. The study signifies less intense linkages of the ERM currencies without parity realignments. Finally, the deutschmark took the role of error-correcting process for one cointegrated currency pair under the fixed-but-adjustable-rate system, and it performed the same role for two pairs under the fixed-rate system. Hence, deutschmark should not be assumed a priori statistically exogenous under the EMS     

Regional Financial Arrangements: A Survey of the Literature and Recent Developments

This article summarizes recent studies on regional financial arrangements (RFAs) and examines the role played by global multilaterals and RFAs in emerging crises. We also review the major RFAs with regard to their basic organizational structure, activities, legal framework, and lending facilities. Finally, we discuss the attributes needed for the sustainable development of RFAs and we look at how they can expand their role for economic cooperation in the associated regions.     

Endogenous Sequencing in Strategic Trade Policy Games Under Uncertainty

This paper examines a strategic trade policy game with endogenous timing. A trade-off between commitment and flexibility is identified. The equilibrium timing of trade policy decisions is shown to highly depend on the degree of demand uncertainty. When demand uncertainty is low, countervailing duties will never be used because the home government always sets its import tariff before the foreign government sets its export subsidy. When demand uncertainty reaches a threshold level, the home government starts to find it optimal to move second with positive probability. As a result, we provide an economic rationale for the prevailing use of countervailing duties in practice.     

The Political Economy of Chinese-Style Privatization: Motives and Constraints

The paper examines how the privatization of Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) can be successfully triggered and completed. By identifying the motives of local government leaders and the constraints that face them during transition, we conclude that: first, whether local governments are motivated to privatize their SOEs, depends on if the ownership transfer is expected to stimulate sufficiently high growth of local tax revenues without sacrificing the bureaucrats private control benefits. Second, a specific privatization program can succeed only if it manages to satisfy the managerial cooperation constraint, the workers compensation constraint, and the bank-debt-servicing constraint. The motives-cum-constraints political economy approach offers an important explanation for the pace and scope of the ongoing Chinese-style privatization.     

Analysing liquidity and absorption limits of electronic markets with volume durations

This paper focuses on the liquidity of electronic stock markets applying a sequential estimation approach of models for volume duration with increasing threshold values. A modified ACD model with a Box–Tukey transformation and a flexible generalized beta distribution is proposed to capture the changing cluster structure of duration processes. The estimation results with German XETRA data reveal the market's absorption limit for high volumes of shares, expanding the time costs of illiquidity when trading these quantities.     

GAMING A SELECTIVE ADMISSIONS SYSTEM

A university uses both early-stage selection outcome (high-school affiliation) and late-stage admission test outcome (standardized test scores) to select students. We use this model to study policies that have been proposed to combat inefficient gaming in college admissions. Increasing university enrollment size can exacerbate gaming and worsen the selection outcome. Abolishing standardized tests for university admissions increases gaming targeting high-school admissions and worsens the selection outcome, whereas eliminating high-school ability sorting may improve the university selection outcome under some cost conditions of gaming. Committing to a lower-powered selection scheme can improve the selection outcome by reducing gaming behaviors.