Regulating Data Privacy and Cybersecurity

This paper studies firms' data privacy and cybersecurity choices. We emphasise the strategic interdependence between these decisions and demonstrate that security in both the market equilibrium and the social optimum tends to be higher when data is shared. We also identify important market failures in the sense that firms tend to under-invest in security and over-share data. Our welfare analysis of a minimum security standard, disclosure and consumer education policies, liability rules and consumer mitigation strategies highlights the need for a co-ordinated approach to regulation.     

How Much Will China Save? Projecting China's National Savings Through 2040*

This paper projects China's national savings through 2040 based on China's national account data, demographic data, and data on rural and urban life‐cycle income and consumption. Our baseline projections show that China's national saving in 2040 will be 16 times the current national saving. The annual growth rate of wealth will decline from 16.3 percent in 2012 to 9.5 percent in 2040. Lowering the growth rate of wealth accumulation to the current rate of return to wealth increases consumption through 2040; lowering the growth rate of wealth further may increase consumption more in the short run, but less in the long run.     

Asymmetric Inventory Management and the Direction of Sales Changes*

We study manufacturing firms' asymmetric inventory investment in response to sales changes. Focusing on the costs of resource adjustment and stockout that likely differ in sales‐increasing and sales‐decreasing periods, we predict and find that inventory investment declines less during periods with sales decreases than it rises during periods with sales increases. We validate this claim by showing that managers' expectations of future demand and desire to avoid inventory stockouts are important determinants of this asymmetry. In addition, we find that asymmetric inventory investment provides useful information for predicting future sales growth, and that both managers' and analysts' sales forecasts are positively associated with the asymmetry. Lastly, we document that forecasts of future sales growth that incorporate asymmetric inventory investment are associated with lower absolute forecast errors than benchmark forecasts. Overall, we highlight the importance of inventory information in understanding managers' resource adjustment and utilization decisions that have implications for forecasting future demand. Our findings on asymmetric inventory management provide new insights to fundamental analysis based on inventory signals.     

Stochastic dominance and behavior towards risk: The market for Internet stocks

Internet stocks registered large gains in the late 1990s, followed by large losses from early 2000. Using stochastic dominance theory, we infer how investor risk preferences have changed over this cycle, and relate our findings to utility theory and behavioral finance. Our major findings are as follows. First, risk averters and risk seekers show a distinct difference in preference for Internet versus “old economy” stocks. This difference is most evident during the bull market period (1998–2000) where Internet stocks stochastically dominate old economy stocks for risk seekers but not risk averters. In the bear market, risk averters show an increased preference for old economy stocks, while risk seekers show a reduced preference for Internet stocks. These results are inconsistent with prospect theory and indicate that investors exhibit reverse S-shaped utility functions.     

MEN, MONEY, AND MEDALS: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE OLYMPIC GAMES

Abstract.  Population size and the level of income per capita are major determinants of the number of medals won by a country in the 1952–2004 Olympic Games. A parsimonious count (Poisson) model fits the data very well: the squared correlation between the predicted value of the number of medals won and the observed value is about 56%. There exist strong country-specific effects in Olympic medals results. While the USA and China tend to outperform other countries relative to their size and income, the Asian dragons tend to under-perform in the Games.