Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis

We analyse the economic risks from two influenza pandemics that represent extremes along the virulence‐infectiousness continuum of possible pandemics: a high virulence–low infectiousness event and a low virulence–high infectiousness event. Our analysis involves linking an epidemiological model and a quarterly computable general equilibrium model. We find that global economic activity is more strongly affected by a pandemic with high infection rates rather than high virulence rates, all else being equal. Regions with a higher degree of economic integration with the world economy face greater risks of negative effects than less integrated regions.     

Job Turnover in China: A Case Study of Shanghai's Manufacturing Enterprises

This article studies the job turnover among manufacturing enterprises in Shanghai during the period from 1989 to 1992. Various indicators of job turnover are calculated. The empirical results demonstrate that types of ownership and firm size are significant factors in accounting for the changes in job generation and job reallocation. Among various types of enterprise, international joint ventures and small firms are more able to create jobs and to generate job reallocation.     

Strategies of high performing new and small firms: A reexamination of the niche concept

Entrepreneurs seeking to position new or small firms in industries populated by well established competitors are frequently advised to seek the protection of a market niche. There, shielded by market characteristics which render the niche uninteresting to larger rivals, small firms are urged to compete at the fringe of the market. This article challenges this conventional wisdom, citing industry and firm characteristics which, under certain conditions, create opportunities for successful direct competition by some small or new firms against much larger and established competitors. However, the authors caution that the conditions which created the opportunity may erode in time, rendering the successful challenger vulnerable either to retaliation by the larger firm or challenge from subsequent entrants.Examples of successful direct confrontation by relatively small competitors are drawn from mature, low-tech industries, a rapidly growing high-tech industry and the service sector.     

Impact evaluation for tourism development using the fuzzy set model: A case study of Kyongju,Korea

The Community tourism industry is primarily influenced by facilities, traffic systems, capacity, and development of tourism commodities. To develop tourism industry on a local basis, it is unavoidable to make investments on a large scale. Factor analysis for impact evaluation prior to undertaking of development projects, which this study intends to make, is more reasonable when related to the fuzzy numeric analysis of words or sentences than to a quantitative analysis of measured information. In this study the Euclidean distance method and Zadeh's fuzzy extension principle were used as linguistic approximation to establish the validity of decision‐ making in each factor category of impact degree. Therefore, this study introduces a general concept of Fuzzy theory through literature review of linguistic expressions. This study examined availability of the Fuzzy model in analyzing investment priorities for tourist development and applied it to Kyongju area, which unveiled the priorities for Kyongju tourism future in order of traffic system improvement, early construction of horse‐ racing track now under planning, promotion of Kyongju as tourism special zone to visitors and positive tourism events. In terms of methodology, this study disclosed that Fuzzy Model approach is greatly useful to decision‐making processes in tourist development.     

Does distance matter? Examining the distance effect on tourists’ multi-attraction travel behaviors

The purpose of this study was to examine the difference in the multi-attraction travel behavior patterns of short-haul and long-haul tourists in Incheon, South Korea. A network t-test analysis and normalized centrality analysis were employed to achieve the purpose. The finding confirmed significant differences between the multi-attraction travel patterns of short-haul and long-haul tourists. Geographic distance played an important role in determining the order of the top-ranking attractions within a multi-destssssination travel network. Since attractions with high centrality scores are comparatively more influential, they are important and competitive in attraction development and marketing. Implications for future studies were also suggested.     

2018 WTO Trade Policy Review of Malaysia

This paper presents an academic analysis and review of the recently completed WTO Trade Policy Review (TPR) of Malaysia, 2018. This includes suggesting policies that can help to promote Malaysia's international competitiveness. We show that the sharp decline in commodity prices that started in 2014 contributed in narrowing Malaysia's trade balance and current account balance as a share of GDP. The faster decline of exports as a share of GDP compared to imports accounted for most of the substantial reduction. Further, the collapse of commodity prices was accompanied by a sharp depreciation of Ringgit Malaysia. We also show that Malaysia is losing international attractiveness in terms of FDI inflows relative to its economic size. This is evidenced by the downward trend in Malaysia's FDI performance index since 1992. Further, international tourism has fallen on average since 2014, due largely to a drop in tourist arrivals from Singapore. Policymakers should introduce policies to enhance international competitiveness, such as reforming the education system to produce skilled workers and reducing reliance on low‐skilled foreign workers.     

An Evaluation of the Hong Kong Employees Retraining Programme

The Employees Retraining Programme, launched by the Hong Kong government in 1993, was promoted as the solution to structural unemployment resulting fromrapid structural transformation of the economy. However, our study of the labourmarket performance of a group of trainees who received training in 1994/5 showsno evidence of any positive effect on the earnings or employment rate of trainees one year after the completion of training in relation to various comparison groups. The apparent lack of success can be traced to low target efficiency and distorted incentives that result in over-utilization of retraining resources.     

Occupational Labour Demand and the Sources of Non‐neutral Technical Change*

This article introduces a two‐step empirical approach for examining both the nature and sources of non‐neutral technical change across multiple occupations. First, conventional labour‐demand parameter estimates and unbiased tests for neutrality are obtained in the context of a flexible cost system. The resulting input‐specific indices of technical change, unconstrained with respect to time path, facilitate subsequent evaluation of proposed sources. In our application to employment decisions of airline firms, we find labour‐saving technical change that is non‐neutral across occupations. We also document occupation‐specific responses to aircraft technology adoption, route system developments and an unprecedented range of technical change elements.

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Gauging potential sovereign risk contagion in Europe

This study adopts the CoVaR methodology to analyse the tail risk relationships among European sovereigns, which provide arguably important information for policymakers to identify countries that should come under close scrutiny during the current debt crisis.     

Link analysis: Hyperlink patterns and social structure on politicians’ Web sites in South Korea

This paper presents results of an investigation into political communication expressed by links connecting politicians’ web sites with the sites of other political actors in South Korea. Additionally, this study examines whether a set of socio-demographic variables for web site producers is associated with linking behavior. Both traditional methods and social network analytical techniques are employed to investigate linking patterns between sites. Perhaps unsurprisingly, members of the South Korean National Assembly linked most to party web sites, and linking patterns did not change between 2003 and 2004. Out of a range of demographic variables investigated, the only ones that related significantly to linking practices were party affiliations and friendship networks.