PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT: THE ROLE OF CALIBRATION,SHARPNESS, AND UNCERTAINTY

I evaluate the out‐of‐sample predictability of several major indicators for bull and bear markets in monthly S&P 500 series with three quadratic probability score components: calibration, sharpness, and uncertainty. I find that uncertainty limits the trend characterization and thus provides a new perspective from which to identify bull and bear markets. I also find that sharpness plays a key role in determining portfolio returns. Trading strategies that capitalize on sharpness generate higher Sharpe ratios and portfolio returns. The Aruoba–Diebold–Scotti business conditions index is the most profitable indicator for both medium‐ and long‐term trends.     

Exchange Rates and Competition for FDI in Asia

This paper argues that relative exchange rates between the host countries of foreign direct investment affect their competition for FDI. Specifically, if the host country currency appreciates against the source country's currency more than that of its rival, FDI inflows of the host country will decrease, while FDI inflows increase in the rival country. Using the data of Japanese FDI in nine Asian manufacturing sectors from 1981 to 2002, the paper examines the hypothesis in the context of the competition between China and ASEAN‐4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand). Empirical results show that the relative exchange rate is a statistically significant factor that determines the relative inflows of Japanese FDI for manufacturing as a whole, and for such sub‐sectors as textiles, food, electronics, transportation equipment, and others. Exchange rate policies of China and ASEAN‐4 played a critical role in dynamically reshaping the geographic distribution of Japanese FDI in Asia.     

基本养老保险仍需改进

本文就机关事业单位、民营企业和农村参加基本养老保险存在的问题浅谈认识,并提出几点建议。     

Inflation in a newly industrialized country: The case of Korea

This paper investigates the nature and causes of inflation in Korea, a newly industrialized country. The basic framework is the two-way causation between prices and wages. The estimated results show that the postulated hypotheses are upheld and that there are multiple causes of inflation. In particular, capital and material costs, which may be considered as external factor costs in Korea, play a significant role, implying that the impact of external inflation on internal inflation in a rapidly developing country is substantial.     

Interview: United Parcel Service's Director of Electronic Commerce,Alan Amling,on the opportunities and challenges of global electronic commerce

The development of global electronic commerce presents many opportunities as well as challenges for companies worldwide. Alan Amling, director of electronic commerce for United Parcel Service (UPS), discusses various aspects of electronic commerce, its global implications, and UPS's effort in enabling its global development. Mr. Amling emphasizes that the key success factor for e‐commerce is building relationships with customers and suppliers. For companies engaging in global e‐commerce, he suggests the importance of “Thinking Global, Acting Local.” Furthermore, Mr. Amling provides critical insights as to why UPS has been able to stay at the forefront in the development of e‐commerce and how UPS is positioning itself to enhance global e‐commerce's growth. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

银行业面临的风险与六西格玛的运用

一、引言 随着日益良好的全球经济环境的形成,以及所采取的增强香港与内地间经济关系的措施,香港银行业已经从"9·11"以来的困难时期复苏过来.     

从《致加西亚的信》说起

阿尔伯特·哈勒德的《致加西亚的信》写于100多年前,这本用时仅一小时写就的小册子,演绎出一个典型而生动的故事:当罗文上校接过美国总统的信时,他不知道加西亚在哪里,他只知道自己唯一要做的事是进入一个危机四伏的国家并找到这个人。他二话没说,没提任何要求,而是接过信,转过身,     

合资企业本土化管理中智力资本的融合

本文从分析智力资本的概念及其特性入手,提出了从人力资本、结构资本和客户资本三方面实现智力资本的融合,同时基于对上汽通用五菱汽车股份有限公司(SGMW)智力资本融合的实证分析,着重阐述了其在建立激励机制,构建学习型组织和提高客户资本含量方面的有益尝试,对于企业合资后,在实施本土化管理进程中更好的实现智力资本的融合具有现实的参考价值。     

从经济全球化看当代资本主义的新变化和发展趋势

经济全球化是当今世界经济和社会发展的一个基本趋势。在经济全球化的背景下,当代资本主义出现了诸多新的变化,但是这些新变化并没有改变资本主义的私有制性质,因而也就不可能解决资本主义社会的基本矛盾。资本主义必然灭亡、社会主义必然胜利是人类历史发展的必然规律。     

电子商务与供应链整合探讨——基于制造业分析

在电子商务经济学里,企业寻求规模最大、成本最小化原则。这就需要企业不断地整合与它相关的前向和后向联结的企业,以降低成本,提高效率。供应链是贯穿于企业相关的前向和后向联结的企业之中,电子商务则是实现的平台。电子商务与供应链的整合为降低成本提供了可能。本文以制造业为例,提出了电子商务与供应链整合的模式,并对该模式进行了分析。