人民币汇率变动对国内消费者价格传导的实证分析

本文首先对汇率传导的理论基础进行了简要阐述,然后通过协整模型、脉冲响应分析和方差分解对人民币汇率的传导效应进行了实证分析.结果表明,人民币汇率对国内消费者价格具有一定的传导效应,长期来看,人民币汇率变动对消费者价格会产生正向影响,且人民币汇率对消费者价格的传导效应明显弱于对进口品价格和企业商品价格的传导效应.     

基于霍太林法则的房地产价格波动分析

许多西方文献研究认为房价从长期看由经济基本面决定,并通过均衡价格理论进行了论证。但本文利用1998～2010年中国房地产季度统计数据分析,发现我国房价与经济基本面缺乏稳定的协整关系;我国房地产价格趋势偏离了局部均衡分析的均衡价格,且房价供求决定方程发生了结构性改变。中国特殊的房地产市场,尤其是受土地政策和心理预期因素影响,很大程度上逼近于一种投机品市场。本文以资源经济学中著名的霍太林法则为基础建立模型,计量分析发现,从阶段特征看心理预期对房价有显著的正向影响;土地供给和房屋租价比、银行利率对房价有显著的负向影响,并提出相应的政策建议。     

我国微型金融可持续发展的战略选择

在深人推进新农村建设和扶贫开发,全面改善农村生产生活条件,加大强农惠农富农政策力度,让广大农民平等参与现代化的进程中,微型金融在大中型农村金融机构逐步退出农村金融市场的背景下,填补了农村金融体系的空白,在解决城乡发展不平衡和农村低收人群体融资难等方面发挥了不可或缺的作用。然而,由于我国微型金融起步比较晚,国内缺乏可借鉴的成功模式,其可持续发展受制于利率市场化程度不高、微型金融法律环境不完善、产品创新不足等因素而缺乏动力。因此,我们应该借鉴国外微型金融持续健康发展的成熟经验,做出我国微型金融可持续发展的科学战略选择。     

Pricing Asian options in a semimartingale model

In this paper we studyy arithmetic Asian options when the underlying stock is driven by special semimartingale processes. We show that the inherently path dependent problem of pricing Asian options can be transformed into a problem without path dependence in the payoff function. We also show that the price is driven by a process with independent increments, Levy processes being a special case. This approach applies for both discretely or continuously options.     

Risk Awareness of Interpersonal Trust and Entrepreneurship in China: Evidence from Survey Data

This paper aims to build a theoretical framework for the influence of risk awareness of interpersonal trust (RAIT) on entrepreneurship, and explores the influence of RAIT on entrepreneurship with the micro survey data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) 2010–2013. The study found that, individuals with higher level of RAIT, their probability of starting new business will increase significantly, and with every increase of RAIT level, the probability of business venturing increase almost 4.0%. No mediation effects of information screening and cooperative mechanism are found in the relationship between RAIT and entrepreneurship. Moreover, during the venturing process, risks accompanying interpersonal trust cannot be reduced by social input; the reduction occurs only in eastern China where the economic system and the industrial development standards are more comprehensive and mature. This paper contributes to the literatures in the following two areas: it provides new evidence on how to deal with risks in the entrepreneurship process that accompanying interpersonal trust; meanwhile, it provides an explanatory mechanism on how the risk awareness affects business venturing.     

Value relevance of proportionate consolidation versus the equity method: Evidence from Hong Kong

Whether proportionate consolidation (PC) or the equity method (EM) provides more informative financial statements is a controversial issue. This study uses data from listed companies in Hong Kong to investigate the value relevance of the EM compared with PC during 2005–2008 when the local word-for-word equivalent HKAS 31 offered the same options. The results of this study provide evidence that PC does not offer higher value relevance than the EM. PC’s horizontal aggregation of a portion of the operations, assets and liabilities of the jointly controlled entities with those of the venturer is less informative to investors than the EM’s vertical aggregation.     

Leading the herd: evidence from mutual funds’ buy and sell decisions

This article investigates whether a mutual fund’s performance is related to its herding behavior. Using the methodology of Sias (Rev Finance Stud 17:165–206, 2004), we develop a measure to capture the magnitude that a fund’s buy (sell) decisions are leading other funds’ buys (sells), and find that a fund’s performance is positively (negatively) related to its “buy leading” (“sell leading”). We interpret these findings as evidence that “buy leaders” (“sell leaders”)’ performance benefits (suffers) from the positive (negative) price effect associated with buy (sell) herds. Additionally, we find a positive relationship between fund performance and valuation-motivated “buy leading”, while we find weak evidence on the relationship between performance and valuation-motivated “sell leading”. We interpret these results as evidence that leading funds’ outperformance is due, in part, to their ability to value stocks.     

绿色壁垒对我国纺织服装业的影响研究

为了避免绿色壁垒对我国纺织服装业造成更大的经济损失,保持行业的持续健康发展,本文分析了绿色壁垒对我国纺织服装业带来的积极影响和消极影响,进而提出应对绿色壁垒消极影响的措施。     

公用燃气管道在线外检测技术现状

随着科学技术进步、社会发展和人民生活水平的提高．城镇燃气管道的数目也与日俱增。据统计，截止2000年底．我国城市燃气管道总长度已达89473km，其中煤气管道48384km，占54．08％；天然气管道33655km，占37．61％；液化石油气管道7434km．占8.31％。而城镇燃气具有易燃、易爆和有毒等特点，一旦发生泄漏，极易发生火灾、爆炸及巾毒事故，使国家和人民生命财产遭受损失。     

企业并购的信号博弈分析

井购是市场经济体制下的一种产权交易活动，是并购双方在追求各自利益最大化前提下所进行的信号博弈过程。由于企业井购双方信息不对称性所导致的逆向选择，企业并购市场会出现分离均衡、混同均衡和准分离均衡三种状态，其中只有分离均衡是最理想和最有效率的均衡。文章建立了目标企业与并购企业之间的信号传递博弈模型，提出克服并购双方信息的不对称性和对目标企业进行合理估价是实现分离均衡的最有效方法。