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A new class of forecasting models is proposed that extends the realized GARCH class of models through the inclusion of option prices to forecast the variance of asset returns. The VIX is used to approximate option prices, resulting in a set of cross-equation restrictions on the model’s parameters. The full model is characterized by a nonlinear system of three equations containing asset returns, the realized variance, and the VIX, with estimation of the parameters based on maximum likelihood methods. The forecasting properties of the new class of forecasting models, as well as a number of special cases, are investigated and applied to forecasting the daily S&P500 index realized variance using intra-day and daily data from September 2001 to November 2017. The forecasting results provide strong support for including the realized variance and the VIX to improve variance forecasts, with linear conditional variance models performing well for short-term one-day-ahead forecasts, whereas log-linear conditional variance models tend to perform better for intermediate five-day-ahead forecasts. 相似文献
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Death, injury, conflict, and disorder caused by natural and man-made disasters have resulted in significant challenges to good governance and impeded the goal of achieving the benign development of society. This paper uses a particular method for analyzing the research situation and identifying current trends and focuses. It then proceeds to explore future research needs. The study finds that future researchers will shift their emphasis from the risks caused by natural disasters to those arising from man-made disasters; meanwhile, the study will consider the complex systems of interaction to understand causality. The objectives of management, hence, should change from investigating the impacts of risks to crisis control. Eventually, an evolutionary disaster-based social-risk framework is established, and some suggestions for future research are provided. 相似文献
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新兴大国面临着推动经济持续增长和转型的任务,走自主创新道路是一种必然选择。进入新世纪以来,"金砖四国"的增长竞争力在上升,除俄罗斯外的三国创新能力也在上升。应该借鉴发达国家的成功经验、新兴大国的实践经验,从创新主体、创新内容和创新环境上构建自主创新道路的框架,并致力于完善创新机制、掌握关键核心技术、发展战略性新型产业和加强国际技术合作交流。 相似文献
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Abstract. Using a price vector and a conjecture about a population's activities, this paper suggests that a mixed Nash–Walrasian equilibrium (NWE) occurs if, when every individual maximizes her utility under her conjecture, the trading markets and the theft ‘markets’ are all cleared. Thus, in our model the property rights system, instead of giving protection directly to producers, is aimed mainly at discouraging illegal behaviour. As a result, the equilibrium of the economy is seen to depend not only on self‐protection and/or the legal system itself, but also on the transportation efficiency of the economy. 相似文献
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This paper examines a search model of money with divisible commodities of high and low quality, while keeping the assumptions of indivisible money and unit-inventory constraint. With no direct barter and a higher fixed cost of producing high relative to low quality, an increase in the money stock encourages the production of high-quality output by trading off the larger trading opportunities against the significance of higher fixed cost. As long as the fixed-cost differential between high and low quality is sufficiently small relative to the utility gain from high-quality consumption, the quality improvement outweighs the negative effect of higher money stocks on aggregate production, and hence implies higher welfare. 相似文献
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王瑶 《西安财经学院学报》2007,20(3):74-78
我国企业知识产权存在的问题包括知识产权保护意识薄弱、知识产权流失严重、知识产权管理弱化、知识产权纠纷增多等方面,为此,应完善知识产权管理系统、实施知识产权战略、建立科技创新机制、实现知识产权的经济效益,构建科学的知识产权价值评估体系,重视知识产权专门人才的培养。 相似文献
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中国城市群规划的创新理念 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
在全球经济一体化的新形势下,在快速城市化过程中,我国的城市群发展很快,许多省市正在编制城市群规划,出现了城市化高度发展的新局面。当前,不少省市领导非常重视对重点地区群进行规划设计(如长三角、珠三角、山东、辽宁等地),继各地城镇体系规划与大都市区(含都市群)的概念规划之后,义掀起了“城市群规划”的新高潮。这充分体现了党中央、国务院关于“城乡统筹规划”以及贯彻科学发展观的精神。 相似文献
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巨灾是制约人类社会经济发展的主要障碍之一,统计资料显示,近十年来巨灾带来的损失尤其惨重.在这一背景下,提出了巨灾会计这一新兴的会计领域,试图构建巨灾会计的基本框架.并对巨灾会计主要研究内容进行了初步探讨. 相似文献