Analyst Earnings Forecasts for Publicly Traded Insurance Companies

Several trends in the insurance and financial services industry, including demutualizationconsolidation, and deregulation, have attracted increasing attention from investors and financial analysts. This paper investigates the accuracy of the earnings forecasts of financial analysts for insurance companies. Our empirical results indicate that analyst forecasts outperform random walk time-series forecasts. Furthermore, we find that both disagreement over earnings forecasts among analysts and the relative forecasting error in the mean forecasts is smaller for life insurers than for property-casualty insurers, whereas the relative errors for forecasts for multiple-line insurers are in between the two. Forecasting error is a negative function of firm size and the number of analysts who are following a company, and is a positive function of the disagreement among analysts.Analyst forecasts have a timing advantage over the random walk model. Our results also suggest that the fair value reporting requirement (SFAS 115), which has been in effect since 1994, has enhanced the accuracy of analyst forecasts. The SFAS 115 has improved the superiority of analyst forecasts over the random walk forecasts for life insurers, but not for property-casualty insurers, and there is a weak improvement for multiple-line insurers. JEL Classification: G15     

Analytical bounds for Treasury bond futures prices

The pricing of delivery options, particularly timing options, in Treasury bond futures is prohibitively expensive. Recursive use of the lattice model is unavoidable for valuing such options, as Boyle in J Finance 14(1):101?C113, (1989) demonstrates. As a result, the main purpose of this study is to derive upper bounds and lower bounds for Treasury bond futures prices. This study first shows that the popular preference-free, closed form cost of carry model is an upper bound for the Treasury bond futures price. Then, the next step is to derive analytical lower bounds for the futures price under one and two-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross models of the term structure. The bound under the two-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model is then tested empirically using weekly futures prices from January 1987 to December 2000.     

Ecological-Inference-Based Latent Growth Models: Modeling Changes of Alienation

Ecological-inference-based statistical methods employ aggregated (ecological) data to approximately infer individual-level structures of interests when individual-level data were not available. Under the same conceptual frames, we introduce the ecological-inference-based latent growth model (EI-LGM) to analyze cross-years latent trends of a general population when longitudinally collected data were not available. We showed both the substantive values and methodological feasibilities of EI-LGMs. Substantively, we analyze results from several Taiwan Social Change Surveys (TSCS) to show the cross-years latent trends using a subscale of alienation psychological characteristics. Not only the cross-years movements of measurement constructs of the scale were shown, the trends of latent factors were revealed as well. More importantly, these trends can be formally tested under the frameworks of EI-LGMs. Statistically, EI-LGMs were implemented under the weighted least square (WLS) approaches because of the dichotomous outcomes of the subscale. We demonstrate some of the estimation methods as well as some cautions of interpreting EI-LGMs using the estimated results.Part of this paper was presented at the Fourth Survey Research Conference held at the Academia Sinica, Taipei, August 29–August 30, 2002.     

The Composition and Effectiveness of Audit Committees in the Presence of Large Controlling Shareholders

The authors' study of audit committees in 450 large East Asian companies (150 each in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Malaysia) finds a strong positive correlation between the “cash flow” ownership (as opposed to just the voting rights) of large shareholders and the percentage of independent audit committee members. The study also reports a strong positive correlation between the “cash flow” ownership of large shareholders and the percentage of audit committee members with financial expertise and experience. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that larger cash flow ownership provides large shareholders with strong incentives for more effective governance. Conversely, the lower percentages of independent or professional audit directors at companies with large disparities between cash ownership and voting rights is consistent with the authors' hypothesis that entrenched large shareholders prefer inferior governance structures that pose fewer obstacles to their tendency to exploit the wealth of minority shareholders. Furthermore, the authors find higher valuations (market‐to‐book ratios) for companies with audit committees that consist entirely of independent directors and have larger percentage of members with financial expertise. And when viewed as a whole, the authors' findings provide support for the argument that ownership structure affects the composition of audit committees, and that independent and professional audit committees can help increase firm value.     

Influence of problem-based learning strategy on enhancing student’s industrial oriented competences learned: an action research on learning weblog analysis

In order to respond to the ever-changing global economic environment, the technological and vocational education system in Taiwan needs to be dramatically reformed to the changing needs of the domestic industrial structure. Integrating practical talents with practical industrial experiences and competences can help avoid discrepancy and close the gap between vocational education and the practical demands of industries. Thus, to achieve the goals of technological and vocational education, it is necessary to incorporate instruction that meets the demands of the industrial-oriented manpower in Taiwan. In this study, the well-known problem-based learning (PBL) approach, utilized commonly in the educational area of medicine and business management, was integrated with the qualitative method of action research to explore how such a learning strategy could influence college students’ learning outcomes regarding industrial-oriented competences. The research results were induced from the empirical data collected via participatory classroom observations, and analyses of teachers’ instructional journals and semi-structural interviews. A survey with quasi-experimental design of the control group pretest and posttest was conducted by using an industrial-oriented competences scale to explore the influences of PBL on students’ learning outcomes of industrial-oriented competences. The findings are expected to shed light on the teaching and learning strategy of college students’ industrial-oriented competences and contribute to theoretical implications and future educational and industrial development of Taiwan.     

Downward influence styles in cultural diversity settings

This study used the cultural value of individualism to explain the direct interpersonal influence behaviour used by Japanese and American expatriates and the indirect structural influence pattern which together have moulded the influence behaviour of Taiwanese managers. As predicted, the collectivists (Japanese expatriates) were found to use more assertiveness, exchange and higher authority strategies than the individualists (American expatriates). Differences in downward influence style between Taiwanese managers in Japanese and in American subsidiaries did reveal the acculturation effects of Japanese and American organizational cultures. Familiarity with local cultural values and language increased the frequency of using influence for Taiwanese managers, but did not afford the Japanese an influence style similar to the Taiwanese.     

The AQL and RQL of the attributes sampling plans in MIL-STD-1916

Since 1996, the Department of Defense-USA has adopted MIL-STD-1916 (Military Standard-1916) sampling plans instead of the traditional MIL-STD-105E (Military Standard-105E) sampling plans. MIL-STD-1916 emphasizes on an effective prevention-based strategy quality system. Its attributes sampling plans are based on “zero accept one reject” as criteria of judgment. In this paper, the lot sizes are regrouped from original 11 groups into 18 new groups such that 100% inspection and sampling plan could be clearly separated. The relationship between fraction nonconforming and probability of acceptance for each verification level (VL) and lot size is investigated. The acceptable quality level (AQL) and rejectabe quality level (RQL) for each VL and lot size are also investigated. The results of this research provide user friendly tables as guidance for both supplier and customer.