Effects of capital flow on the equity and housing markets in Hong Kong

The revival of strong capital flows to emerging economies following the global financial crisis in 2008–2009 has rekindled the debate on effects of excessive capital inflows. We study the effects of official and illicit capital flows on Hong Kong, which is a small and open economy with minimal restrictions on cross‐border fund movements. It is found that the official and illicit capital flow measures display a low level of comovement and exhibit differential effects on Hong Kong's equity and residential housing markets. The results highlight the complexity of managing capital flows, and the relevance of sector‐specific capital management policies.     

Investment opportunity set,political connection and business policies of private enterprises in China

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the factors that determine the business policies of private enterprises in the People’s Republic of China. Little is known about these private enterprises although these are surpassing the state-owned enterprises to become the most important corporate sector in China. The phenomenal growths of these enterprises provide an interesting setting to study the effect of the investment opportunity set (IOS) on business policies. We also examine how a firm’s political connection, generally believed to be instrumental to a firm’s success in transition economies, affects its business policies. We provide evidence on the importance of these factors in shaping the private firms’ business policies in China. More specifically, our results show that growth firms pay lower dividends, have lower overdue receivables relative to sales, have higher percentage of bonus shares, and are more likely to engage in joint ventures. In addition, firms with better political connection are able to borrow more, are more likely to establish a board of directors, and are more likely to acquire SOEs. These results have policy implications with regard to private enterprises in transitional economies in general and those in China in particular.     

Targets' Tax Shelter Participation and Takeover Premiums

This paper examines the effect of targets' participation in tax shelters on takeover premiums in mergers and acquisitions. Using a novel data set in which targets disclose that they have not participated in tax shelters, we find that targets that make this statement in their merger filings are associated with 4.6 percent higher takeover premiums, on average. These findings suggest that acquirers are concerned about the potential future liabilities when targets have engaged in tax sheltering. Consistent with this interpretation, the results also indicate that the positive association between targets' nonsheltering disclosure and acquisition premiums is stronger for less tax‐aggressive acquirers. This paper demonstrates the importance of targets' aggressive tax positions in the determination of premiums offered to targets' shareholders.     

Total cost/response rate trade-offs in mail survey research: impact of follow-up mailings and monetary incentives

This article reports results of a mail survey experiment in which several response-inducement methods were manipulated. The experiment assesses the impact of follow-up mailings and monetary incentives on total cost/response rate trade-offs. Experimental findings lead to a number of recommendations for researchers and managers who conduct mail surveys. First, follow-up mailings and monetary incentives should be used to maximize response rate. Second, given a limited budget for survey administration, follow-up mailings are preferred over monetary incentives. Third, if there is limited time for survey administration, monetary incentives may be preferred over follow-up mailings. Finally, follow-up mailings have the added benefit of enabling nonresponse bias estimation.     

中国城镇居民住房的需求与供给

本文研究了自1980年代后期中国城镇住房商品化以来城镇居民住房的需求与供给。我们从耐用消费品需求与供给的标准理论出发,在联立方程框架下估计城镇住房的需求与供给方程,得到了需求的收入与价格弹性及供给的价格弹性的估计值。通过对1987～2006年全国城镇总体水平年度数据的分析,我们发现城镇住房价格的快速上涨主要可由需求与供给的作用解释,即人均收入和建筑成本的变化决定了房价的整体趋势。城镇住房需求的(长期)收入弹性约为1,需求的价格弹性在0.5到0.6之间。住房存量总供给的价格弹性约为0.83。     

Decomposing the VIX: Implications for the predictability of stock returns

The VIX index is not only a volatility index but also a polynomial combination of all possible higher moments in market return distribution under the risk-neutral measure. This paper formulates the VIX as a linear decomposition of four fundamentally different elements: the realized variance (RV), the variance risk premium (VRP), the realized tail (RT), and the tail risk premium (TRP), respectively. Using an innovative and nonparametric tail risk measure, we find that approximately one-third of the VIX's formation is attributed to the TRP. In addition to VRP, RT and TRP are crucial components for predicting future returns on equity portfolios.     

Corporate In‐house Tax Departments*

In‐house human capital tax investment is a significant input to a firm's tax decisions. Yet, due to the lack of data on corporate in‐house tax departments, there is little empirical evidence on how tax departments are associated with tax planning and compliance outcomes. We expect the size of tax departments to be positively associated with the effectiveness of tax planning and compliance. Using hand‐collected data on the number of corporate tax employees in S&P 1500 firms over the 2009–2014 period, we find that firms with larger tax departments are associated with lower and less volatile cash effective tax rates. Furthermore, using tax employees' specialization, we identify tax departments' relative focus on planning or compliance and document a trade‐off between tax avoidance and tax risk. Specifically, tax departments with more of a tax planning focus have incrementally greater tax avoidance but higher tax risk, whereas tax departments with more of a tax compliance focus have incrementally lower tax risk but higher tax rates. Overall, this paper contributes to the literature by looking inside the “black box” of corporate tax departments and shedding light on the importance of human capital tax investment for tax outcomes.     

Regime switching and cointegration tests of the efficiency of futures markets

Many researchers have found that spot and futures prices are not cointegrated in some commodity markets, or they are cointegrated but not with a cointegrating vector (1, −1). One interpretation is that disturbances to excess returns have a unit root persistence, which implies that spot and futures prices do not move together one-for-one in the long run. To provide an alternative explanation for this finding, this article proposes a regime switching model of spot prices that can be viewed in the same framework as Fama and French (1988). Based on this model, Monte Carlo experiments are performed to show that tests for cointegration and estimates of the cointegrating vector are likely to be biased when a sample contains infrequent changes in regime. Taking these shifts into account, the null hypothesis that spot and futures prices are cointegrated and move together one-for-one in the long run can no longer be rejected. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:871–901, 1998