Consumer rationality and credit card pricing: An explanation based on the option value of credit lines

An option is embedded in credit cards. Since credit cards offer open credit lines, cardholders can borrow at the same terms when they become riskier. This option value raises the zero‐profit card rate. Furthermore, adverse selection occurs if cardholders are better informed about the probability of becoming riskier in the future and borrow more when they become riskier. The adverse selection can limit rate competition and keep the card rate above the zero‐profit card rate. An up‐front fee is not a good alternative because it is also vulnerable to adverse selection. A low introductory card rate is an effective way to avoid the adverse selection problem when asymmetric information is mainly about the change in the borrower's risk profile in the future, as opposed to the riskiness in the present period. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

EAST ASIAN REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS: DO THEY PROMOTE GLOBAL FREE TRADE?

Abstract.  We quantitatively evaluate the effects different paths have on East Asian Regional Trade Agreements (RTA), which include expansionary, duplicate and overlapping RTAs. By applying a computable general equilibrium model analysis, we find that the static effect of existing, proposed and negotiating East Asian RTAs on world and members' welfare is sufficiently positive. It will lead to non-discriminatory global free trade, by triggering the domino effect of regionalism if the RTAs take an expansionary path by cooperating with each other, in contrast to competing to achieve the first mover advantage, or hub self-interest.     

Rational Beliefs or Distorted Beliefs: The Equity Premium Puzzle and Micro Survey Data

This paper examines whether the expected equity premium constructed from survey forecasts is consistent with the implications of the rational belief approach or the distorted belief approach to explaining the equity premium puzzle. To address this question, a panel data model with a fixed individual effect and a business cycle effect is analyzed. The results appear more favorable to the distorted belief approach. The average expected equity premium is lower than the average realized equity premium during the sample period. The average bias across economists is significant and varies over the business cycle, which is consistent with distorted beliefs that are excessively pessimist.c over expansions and excessively optimistic over contractions.     

Vertical externality and strategic delegation

This paper examines the effects of vertical externality generated by the upstream monopoly on the incentives that owners of competing downstream firms give their managers. It is shown that the introduction of the upstream monopoly may have significant effects on the incentive schemes for the downstream firms' managers. In particular, it is shown that in equilibrium, each owner obtains the simple Nash equilibrium outcome regardless of the mode of competition (quantity or price) in the downstream market. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Cross-industry Spillover of Technological Capability: Korea’s DRAM and TFT–LCD Industries

Studies of Korea’s Thin Film Transistor–Liquid Crystal Display (TFT–LCD) industry have emphasized the government policy, industrial organization, and the firm’s strategy as key success factors. However, the fact that knowledge spillover, which tends to occur between highly technologically related industries, can lead to a reduction in innovation effort has been overlooked. We examined the technological relationships between Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) and TFT–LCD industries and investigated their spillover into the areas of technology, human resources and organization, and network. The results show spillover in capital control, technology, production and quality management, organizational systems, and key personnel. This implies that spillover effect in high technology firms may diversify their products due to existing technological capabilities.     

CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY IN THE MARKET MODEL AND EFFICIENT ESTIMATES OF BETAS

Previous studies have investigated only unconditional heteroscedasticity in the market model. This paper tests for both conditional and unconditional heteroscedasticities as well as normality. Using the monthly stock rate of return data secured from the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) tape for 1976 through 1983, this paper shows that conditional heteroscedasticity is more widespread than unconditional heteroscedasticity, suggesting the necessity of model refinements that take conditional heteroscedasticity into account. This paper provides an alternative estimation of betas of individual securities and portfolios based on the autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) model introduced by Engle. The efficiency of the market model coefficients is markedly improved across all firms in the sample through the ARCH technique.     

Estimating the autocorrelated error model with trended data

A Monte Carlo study of the small sample properties of various estimators of the linear regression model with first-order autocorrelated errors. When independent variables are trended, estimators using Ttransformed observations (Prais-Winsten) are much more efficient than those using T–1 (Cochrane–Orcutt). The best of the feasible estimators isiterated Prais-Winsten using a sum-of-squared-error minimizing estimate of the autocorrelation coefficient ?. None of the feasible estimators performs well in hypothesis testing; all seriously underestimate standard errors, making estimated coefficients appear to be much more significant than they actually are.     

Comparison of SML and GMM estimators for the random coefficient logit model using aggregate data

A simulated maximum likelihood (SML) estimator for the random coefficient logit model using aggregate data is found to be more efficient than the widely used generalized method of moments estimator (GMM) of Berry et?al. (Econometrica 63:841?C890, 1995). In particular, the SML estimator is better than the GMM estimator in recovery of heterogeneity parameters which are often of central interest in marketing research. With the GMM estimator, the analyst must determine what moment conditions to use for parameter identification, especially the heterogeneity parameters. With the SML estimator, the moment conditions are automatically determined as the gradients of the log-likelihood function, and these are the most efficient ones if the model is correctly specified. Another limitation of the GMM estimator is that the product market shares must be strictly positive while the SML estimator can handle zero market share observations. Properties of the SML and GMM estimators are demonstrated in simulated data and in data from the US photographic film market.