How credible is the North Korean threat?

We perform event analysis on particular episodes of tension in the Korean peninsula between 2000 and 2008, and investigate the effect of the events on South Korean financial markets (stock markets, bond yield spreads and the exchange rate) given that South Korea would be the first affected by a military aggression from North Korea. Surprisingly, in nearly all cases, these events, which have often been dramatized in the world media, have no significant impact on either of these variables or only a very small one. We also find no significant impact of events on listed firms that would a priori be likely to suffer from increased tension between the two Koreas. Since financial markets often contain better predictions than expert opinions or surveys, these results strongly suggest that the North Korean threat is non‐credible.     

CONVERTIBLE BOND PRICING MODELS

Convertible bonds are an important segment of the corporate bond market, with worldwide outstandings approaching US$235 billion. Simple pricing models value a convertible bond as being equivalent to a straight bond with an embedded option that enables the bond holder to convert to a specific amount of common stock. The straight bond is subject to both interest rate and credit risk, whereas the option to convert is dependent on the underlying stock price, which exposes the convertible bond holder to equity risk. The complexity of these features means that convertible bonds tend to be treated casually in major derivatives and corporate finance textbooks. This paper presents a survey of the theoretical and empirical aspects of convertible bond pricing. The limitations of these studies are highlighted to identify those areas of research that may improve the valuation process and facilitate the application of these securities for corporate financing.     

Changing Perceptions of Maturity Mismatch in the U.S. Banking System: Evidence from Equity Markets

We use the sensitivity of bank holding company equity returns to market interest rates as an indicator of perceived maturity mismatch. Based on data from 1990 to 2009, there is only weak evidence that market participants perceived banks to be effectively short‐funded. However, looking at 1990–1996 and 1997–2009 subsamples separately, our results suggest that U.S. commercial banks were perceived as short‐funded during the earlier time period but not the later. During this time of changing perceptions of maturity mismatch, banks were increasing their holdings of real estate loans as a share of total assets. We present evidence that, subsequent to 1996, market participants perceived real estate loans as having become effectively shorter‐term.     

Proving regularity of the minimal probability of ruin via a game of stopping and control

We reveal an interesting convex duality relationship between two problems: (a) minimizing the probability of lifetime ruin when the rate of consumption is stochastic and the individual can invest in a Black–Scholes financial market; (b) a controller-and-stopper problem, in which the controller controls the drift and volatility of a process in order to maximize a running reward based on that process, and the stopper chooses the time to stop the running reward and pays the controller a final amount at that time. Our primary goal is to show that the minimal probability of ruin, whose stochastic representation does not have a classical form as does the utility maximization problem (i.e., the objective’s dependence on the initial values of the state variables is implicit), is the unique classical solution of its Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation, which is a non-linear boundary-value problem. We establish our goal by exploiting the convex duality relationship between (a) and (b).     

Premia for correlated default risk

Using data on corporate default experience in the U.S. and market rates of CDX index and tranche swaps of various maturities, we estimate reduced-form models of correlated default timing in the CDX High Yield and Investment Grade portfolios under actual and risk-neutral probabilities. The striking contrast between the estimated processes followed by the actual and risk-neutral arrival intensities of defaults, and between the parameters governing the actual and risk-neutral dynamics of the risk-neutral intensities, indicates the presence of substantial default risk premia in CDX swap market rates. The effects of risk premia on swap rates covary strongly across maturities, and depend on general stock market volatility and several measures of credit spreads. Large moves in the effects of these premia on swap rates have natural interpretations in terms of economic and financial market developments during the sample period, April 2004 to October 2007. Our results suggest that a large portion of the movements in CDX swap market rates observed during the sample period may be caused by changing attitudes toward correlated default risk rather than changes in the economic factors affecting the actual risk of clustered defaults, which ultimately governs swap payoffs.     

The Effects of Impression Management on Coupon Redemption across Cultures

This research examines the effects of impression management on consumers’ coupon redemption and suggests different underlying mechanisms with respect to cultural self‐construal. Four studies show that, when primed with impression management, individualistic (vs. collectivistic) consumers are more likely to redeem coupons, because individualists believe that coupon redemption creates the impression of being smart. On the other hand, collectivistic consumers are less likely to redeem coupons when coupon usage is visible to others, because they believe that coupon redemption gives the impression of being cheap. These findings are explained within the context of cultural self‐construal and regulatory focus theory.     

The unrealized value of incentivized eWOM recommendations

While companies have recognized the perceived economic benefits of encouraging and managing electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM), the benefits may be understated. Companies take into account the influence on the audience. But, what about any effects on the person who communicates the eWOM? We explore the impact that incentivized eWOM has on communicator attitude. Using the saying is believing effect as our theoretical foundation, we suggest that providing eWOM induces a change in the communicator’s attitude. By generating and providing a biased recommendation, the communicator will believe the biased recommendation. Furthermore, the communicator is likely to remember the biased recommendation and will use it to update their attitude. We examine how valence of recommendations (negative versus positive) and the number of opportunities to recommend affect the change in attitude. Our findings indicate that providing recommendations changes communicator’s attitude. Implications of the results are discussed.     

Leader political skill and casino dealer morale: the mediating role of follower perceptions of leader–member exchange

Our study investigated the follower perceptions of leader–member exchange (FPLMX) as a mediator between leader political skill (LPS) and follower morale and tested these relationships using data obtained from casino dealers in Korea. Social astuteness, interpersonal influence, networking ability, and apparent sincerity are the indicators of LPS, while follower morale is composed of job satisfaction and affective organizational commitment. The results from structural equation modeling suggest that the research model we have proposed is viable. Broadly speaking, FPLMX is a partial mediator between LPS and follower morale.     

Measuring the economic impacts of major sports events: the case of Formula One Grand Prix (F1)

This study was examined the new money generated from Formula One Grand Prix (F1) and the economic impacts of this new money on the host economy using input–output analysis. We find that the impact of the new money from non-local attendees or international attendees is more pronounced compared to that from local attendees. Also, F1 event appears to influence on sports-related industry as well as other industries such as manufacturing industry. Our findings suggest that the host cities should focus on increasing the non-local and international attendees in order to enhance the economic impacts of a sport event.