Some properties of the length of the shortest half

This paper discusses some properties of the length of the shortest half proposed by Rousseeuw and Leroy (1988) as a robust scale estimator.     

Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric macro-drivers (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of pure CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops.     

Uncertainty and the theory of international trade in long-run equilibrium

We consider a country with two factors and two industries, each of which faces technical and price uncertainty. Entrepreneurs choose outputs in order to maximize the expected utility of profits. They also draw factor payments and purchase consumption goods after the uncertainty isresolved. They enter and exit from an industry according to whether participation there increases their expected utility. Within this model, the validity of the propositions of neoclassical trade theory depends on how the entrepreneurs' entry decisions are affected by parameter changes via their roles as risk bearers, consumers and factor owners.     

From production to sustainability: Considering the whole household

The recent focus on sustainability as guiding principle for economic activity has generated many, and often conflicting, definitions of sustainable economic development. Yet while the terminology may be new, the discussion is not. Rather it parallels the discussion about biases of economic measurement and valuation concepts which have led to the neglect of the domestic and subsistence contribution of female householdership relegated to the informal sector. This paper argues that the selective focus of economics on narrowly defined productive functions has led to the detrimental neglect of sustaining functions without which production itself would be impaired. Informed by feminist theory, three principles are identified which are essential to the conceptual framework of a sustainable production theory. They are: concretion rather than abstraction, connectedness rather than isolation, and diversity rather than homogeneity. Without deterring from the importance of gender (especially in economics), the discussion of these principles of a sustaining orientation of economics is viewed in a broader context of mind-sets. It is argued that to reframe the relationship between production and sustainability as compatible rather than adversarial requires a broadening of theory, inquiry, and methodology. The voices of women who have gone largely unheard in economics are essential in this refraining process.

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Zusammenfassung Von der Produktion zur Nachhaltigkeit: Die Betrachtung des Haushalts als Ganzes. Die neuere Betonung der Nachhaltigkeit als Leitprinzip für ökonomisches Handeln hat zu vielen — manchmal uneinheitlichen — Definitionen der nachhaltigen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung geführt. Neu ist bei dieser Diskussion nur die terminologische Seite, die inhaltliche ist es nicht. Vielmehr gleicht sie der Diskussion über unzulÄngliche Konzepte zur ökonomischen Messung und Bewertung, die zu einer VernachlÄssigung des dem informellen Sektor zugeordneten Unterhaltsbeitrages der überwiegend weiblichen haushÄlterischen TÄtigkeit geführt hat. Der vorliegende Beitrag will zeigen, da\ die einseitige Betonung eng definierter produktiver Funktionen durch das ökonomische Denken zu einer schÄdlichen VernachlÄssigung der Unterhaltsfunktionen geführt hat, ohne die die Produktion sehr beeintrÄchtigt wÄre. Ausgehend von feministischer Theorie werden drei Prinzipien identifiziert, die für eine Theorie nachhaltiger Produktion wichtig sind: Konkretisierung statt Abstraktion, Verbundenheit statt Isolation und Verschiedenheit statt Einheitlichkeit. Wenn Produktion und Nachhaltigkeit in neuer Sichtweise nicht mehr nur als gegensÄtzlich, sondern als miteinander vereinbar gesehen werden sollen, so ist dafür eine Ausweitung der Fragestellungen der Theorie und der Methodologie notwendig. Die Stimmen der in der ökonomik weitgehend ungehörten Frauen sind für diese neue Sichtweise sehr wichtig.

     

The mixed economy for public service consumers. The case of consumer agencies for public transportation

The phrase mixed economy of welfare refers to the observation that the provision of public services in western countries frequently involves the participation of other sectors in addition to government. For example, a service may be privately financed and produced but regulated by government, financed by government subsidies or vouchers but produced privately, or produced by a commercial or voluntary organization under contract to government. But such different ways in which government can arrange public service supply by no means exhaust the varieties of arrangements in a mixed economic system. Other examples include alternative institutional arrangements for articulating consumer wants for public services, evaluating consumer satisfaction, and holding the producers of services accountable for their performance.This paper examines the role of official public advisory bodies and private, voluntary associations whose purposes are to improve services to users of U.S. public transportation. At variance with some of the theory of political economy, it is found that the public and private consumer organizations generally enjoy a symbiotic rather than substitute or competitive relationship with one another, and that both kinds of organizations arise and complement each other in addressing the problems of consumers of a government service produced under monopoly conditions.

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Die Beteiligung mehrerer Wirtschaftssektoren bei der Versorgung mit öffentlichen Diensten — der Fall der amerikanischen Verbraucher-Agenturen für öffentlichen Nahverkehr

Zusammenfassung Der Ausdruck mixed economy of welfare bezieht sich auf die Beobachtung, daß die Versorgung mit öffentlichen Gütern in westlichen Ländern häufig nicht allein durch den Staat erfolgt. So kann zum Beispiel ein öffentliches Gut privat finanziert und hergestellt werden, aber unter öffentlicher Aufsicht stehen, oder es kann von der öffentlichen Hand bezahlt aber privat produziert werden, oder es kann durch eine kommerzielle oder gemeinnützige Organisation in Absprache mit staatlichen Stellen produziert werden. Ebenso gibt es Fälle, wo öffentlicher und privater Hersteller eines vergleichbaren Gutes verschiedene Marktseggmente versorgen. Beispielsweise stehen in den USA den Bürgern, die mit öffentlichen Schulen unzufrieden sind, private Schulen zur Verfügung.Diese Beispiele zeigen, auf welchen unterschiedlichen Wegen die Versorgung mit öffentlichen Gütern rangiert werden kann. Solche angebotsorientierten Beispiele zeigen aber nur einen Teil der möglichen Sektorverbindungen in einer Mischwirtschaft. Andere Beispiele treffen eher die Nachfrageseite bei öffentlichen Gütern, insbesondere die institutionellen Möglichkeiten für die Artikulation von Verbraucherwünschen hinsichtlich öffentlicher Güter für die Erfassung der Zufriedenheit und dafür, daß die Anbieter öffentlicher Güter für ihr Leistungsniveau einstehen müssen. Solche Beispiele zeigen, daß Einrichtungen wie Kommissionen für öffentliche Dienste, Departements für Konsumentenfragen, Ombudsmänner und eine Vielzahl privater und freiwilliger Organisationen in unterschiedlichster Weise tätig werden, um die Interessen von Bürgern zu schützen, die öffentliche Leistungen in Anspruch nehmen.Der vorliegende Beitrag betrachtet solche Einrichtungen für öffentlichen Nah- und Fernverkehr in den USA. Ebenso wie in England gibt es hier sowohl offizielle öffentliche Beratungsgremien wie auch private freiwillige Einrichtungen, deren Zielsetzung ganz ähnlich sind, nämlich die Leistungen der öffentlichen Verkehrsunternehmungen zu verbessern. Der Beitrag berichtet über die Ergebnisse einer empirischen Studie beider Arten von Gremien und versucht die Rolle beider Arten in einer Mischwirtschaft zu beschreiben. Insbesondere versucht der Beitrag, zu erklären, warum beide Arten von Gremien entstehen, welches Verhältnis sie zu einander und zu den Transportunternehmen haben. Im Gegensatz zu manchen theoretischen Annahmen erwies sich, daß öffentliche und private Verbraucherorganisationen weniger in einem substitutiven oder wettbewerblichen Verhältnis zueinander stehen, sondern eher eine Symbiose miteinander bilden, und daß sich beide Arten von Organisationen häufig bei der Behandlung von Problemen ergänzen.The author is indebted to his former student and research assistant Chester Phillips for carrying out the survey for this paper. He would also like to thank his colleague Richard Silkman for insightful comments and suggestions on the first draft and Beverly Dolinsky of the Permanent Citizens Advisory Committee to the MTA in New York City for the time and information she provided. Finally, the author wants to thank Ken Judge for providing the stimulus to write this paper through the invitation to participate in the 1983 Social Administration Association Conference in Canterbury, England, where this paper was first presented, and Harry Weiner for arranging support to allow attendance at that conference.

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Dennis R. Young is a Professor at W. Averell Harriman College for Policy Analysis and Public Management, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York 11794, USA.     

Real estate return correlations: Real-world limitations on relationships inferred from NCREIF data

Correlation estimates for returns between individual properties are subject to large inherent uncertainties due to limits on the amount of data that is likely to be available for the foreseeable future. After allowance for correlation sampling error, it is impossible to distinguish on an ex ante basis between the risk-reduction capabilities of mean-variance portfolio selection models and naive diversification without regard to property type or geographical location. The naive portfolio diversification strategies of typical institutional real estate portfolio managers are rational responses to limitations on the informational content of statistical analyses of historical real estate data.     

Did Leaving the Gold Standard Tame the Business Cycle? Evidence from NBER Reference Dates and Real GNP

Cover and Pecorino (2005) claim that the March 1933 departure from the gold standard is the most probable break point ushering in an era of longer U.S. expansions, both absolutely and relative to subsequent recessions. Their analysis is based on cycle durations as defined by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reference dates. However, much of macroeconomic analysis is based on (i) growth cycles (i.e., periods when the economy's production is above or below trend) rather than absolute increases or decreases in economic activity; and (ii) aggregate time series' volatility as the prime indicator of macroeconomic stability. In light of this, we reevaluate the March 1933 break point. First, using HP‐filtered quarterly gross national product (GNP), our analysis of growth cycle durations still implies a break point near 1933. Second, we test for structural breaks in the volatility of GNP growth rates and deviations from trends. These tests suggest a structural break considerably later than 1933, perhaps as late as the 1950s.     

Institutional Monitoring: Evidence from the F‐Score

The extant literature shows that institutional investors engage in corporate governance to enhance a firm's long‐term value. Measuring firm performance using the F‐Score, we examine the persistent monitoring role of institutional investors and identify the financial aspects of a firm that institutional monitoring improves. We find strong evidence that long‐term institutions with large shareholdings consistently improve a firm's F‐Score and that such activity occurs primarily through the enhancement of the firm's operating efficiency. Other institutions reduce a firm's F‐Score. Moreover, we find evidence that, while monitoring institutions improve a firm's financial health, transient (followed by non‐transient) institutions trade on this information.     

Prepayment and future cross-buying: an exploratory analysis

Recent research has provided important insights on consumers’ preferences for prepayment mechanisms and on its impact on consumption of a given product or service. However, little is known about how prepayment influences future purchases of goods and services. We consider this question in a contractual setting within the services industry, involving different purchasing decisions over time. Based on a large-scale empirical test, we find that prepay customers make fewer changes to their cross-buying levels (i.e., the number of different services they buy from the company) from one contractual period to another, and that this effect is more salient for the firm's new customers. We propose possible explanatory mechanisms for this effect. For instance, based on mental budgeting theory, we suggest that prepayment customers may set mental budgets and track expenditures against this budget leading them to resist further investments. Alternatively, prepayment customers may be more certain about their consumption behavior leading to fewer changes over time.