Some Preliminary Findings on Hong Kong Business Cycles

This paper presents some preliminary quantitative findings on the characteristics of business cycles in Hong Kong. The recently developed "approximate bandpass filter" is used to extract the fluctuations at business cycle frequencies (8 to 32 quarters) of macroeconomic time series. Based on the filtered time series, the paper identifies the cyclical turning points, describes the pattern of output fluctuations, and examines the co‐movement of various macroeconomic variables.     

Sustainable innovation behavior in restaurants

Although a major contributor to environmental degradation and global climate change, most city administrators, policymakers and regulators do not hold restaurants accountable for their adverse impacts. New policies with incentives are urgently needed that leverage existing drivers of sustainable innovation. Using innovation adoption and planned behavior theories, a path analysis model is developed to evaluate the current level of sustainability in the restaurant industry and reveal the predictors of future sustainability behavioral intention. The results show that three predictors ? past experience, perceived behavioral control, and perceived innovation characteristics ? largely determine whether restaurants engage in sustainable innovation in the future.     

An Evaluation of the Hong Kong Employees Retraining Programme

The Employees Retraining Programme, launched by the Hong Kong government in 1993, was promoted as the solution to structural unemployment resulting fromrapid structural transformation of the economy. However, our study of the labourmarket performance of a group of trainees who received training in 1994/5 showsno evidence of any positive effect on the earnings or employment rate of trainees one year after the completion of training in relation to various comparison groups. The apparent lack of success can be traced to low target efficiency and distorted incentives that result in over-utilization of retraining resources.     

GAMING A SELECTIVE ADMISSIONS SYSTEM

A university uses both early-stage selection outcome (high-school affiliation) and late-stage admission test outcome (standardized test scores) to select students. We use this model to study policies that have been proposed to combat inefficient gaming in college admissions. Increasing university enrollment size can exacerbate gaming and worsen the selection outcome. Abolishing standardized tests for university admissions increases gaming targeting high-school admissions and worsens the selection outcome, whereas eliminating high-school ability sorting may improve the university selection outcome under some cost conditions of gaming. Committing to a lower-powered selection scheme can improve the selection outcome by reducing gaming behaviors.     

Unravelling of Dynamic Sorting

We consider a two-sided, finite-horizon search and matching model with heterogeneous types and complementarity between types. The quality of the pool of potential partners deteriorates as agents who have found mutually agreeable matches exit the market. When search is costless and all agents participate in each matching round, the market performs a sorting function in that high types of agents have multiple chances to match with their peers. However, this sorting function is lost if agents incur an arbitrarily small cost in order to participate in each round. With a sufficiently rich type space, the market unravels as almost all agents rush to participate in the first round and match and exit with anyone they meet.     

The LeChatelier principle: the long and the short of it

Summary. Using ordinary calculus techniques, we investigate the conditions under which LeChatelier effects are signable for finite changes in parameter values. We show, for example, that the short run demand for a factor is always less responsive to price changes than the long run demand, provided that the factor of production and the fixed factor do not switch from being substitutes to being complements (or vice versa) over the relevant range of the price change. The absence of a sign change in the complementarity/substitutability relation holds under conditions that are considerably more general than supermodularity of the production function.     

Profiteering from the Dot‐Com Bubble,Subprime Crisis and Asian Financial Crisis

The paper explores the characteristics associated with the formation of bubbles that occurred in the Hong Kong stock market in 1997 and 2007, as well as the 2000 dot‐com bubble of Nasdaq. It examines the profitability of technical analysis (TA) strategies generating buy and sell signals, with and without our proposed trading rules. The empirical results show that, by applying long and short strategies during the bubble formation and a short strategy after the bubble burst, it not only produces returns that are significantly greater than buy‐and‐hold strategies, but also produces greater wealth compared with TA strategies without trading rules. We conclude that these bubble detection signals help investors generate greater wealth from applying appropriate long and short moving average (MA) strategies.     

A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF SUBURBANIZATION AND THE DIFFUSION OF THE AUTOMOBILE*

Suburbanization in the United States between 1910 and 1970 was concurrent with the diffusion of the automobile. A circular city model is developed in order to access quantitatively the contribution of automobiles and rising incomes to suburbanization. The model incorporates a number of driving forces of suburbanization and car adoption, including falling automobile prices, rising real incomes, changing costs of traveling by car and with public transportation, and urban population growth. According to the model, 60% of postwar (1940–1970) suburbanization can be explained by these factors. Rising real incomes and falling automobile prices are shown to be the key drivers of suburbanization.     

Investment in concealable information by biased experts

We study a persuasion game in which biased—possibly opposed—experts strategically acquire costly information that they can then conceal or reveal. We show that information acquisition decisions are strategic substitutes when experts have linear preferences over a decision maker's beliefs. The logic turns on how each expert expects the decision maker's posterior to be affected by the presence of other experts should he not acquire information that would turn out to be favorable. The decision maker may prefer to solicit advice from just one biased expert even when others—including those biased in the opposite direction (singular)—are available.     

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRADE OPENNESS

This paper empirically investigates the interaction between financial development and trade openness through simultaneous‐equation systems. The identification and estimation of the systems rely on the methodology of identification through heteroskedasticity proposed by Rigobon (2003). Using a panel consisting of 70 countries over the period 1960–2007, we find a two‐way causal relationship between financial development and trade openness. A better‐developed financial sector induces higher openness to trade, while higher openness in goods market stymies financial development. And such findings hold well for low‐income, high‐inflation, or low‐governance countries.