The Turnover of Market Leaders in Growing and Declining Industries: Evidence from Japan

This article explores the turnover of market leaders in the manufacturing and information and communications industries in Japan. We propose indices for market mobility by focusing on the turnover of market leaders and examine how the likelihood of the turnover of market leaders differs across industries. We provide evidence that market leaders are more likely to be replaced by competitors in growing and declining industries, relative to industries where the growth is more stable. Moreover, the results reveal that the turnover of market leaders is more likely to occur in research and development-intensive industries. Furthermore, the interaction effects of industry growth and concentration indicate that the turnover of market leaders is more likely to occur in declining industries with high concentration.     

A Time Series Analysis of Economical Phenomena in Japan’s Lost Decade (1): Determinacy Property of the Velocity of Money and Equilibrium Solution

The extended velocities of money given by the ratio of NGDP and M₂+CD in Japan’s lost decade are analyzed through the non-linear time series analysis based upon the theory of KM₂O-Langevin equations. The time series of logarithmic returns of some extended velocities of money are judged to have a determinacy property in a specified time domain whose final time coincides with the time 1999q1 when the Bank of Japan took the zero interest rate policy. This implies that there exists a stochastic process with the time series stated above its realization and it satisfies certain functional relation. This gives a meaning from a viewpoint of time series analysis that the velocity of money can be regarded as an equilibrium solution of the demand and the supply between the goods market and the money market.     

The (dis)saving behavior of the aged in Japan

In this paper, I survey the previous literature on the saving behavior of the aged in Japan and then present some data on the saving behavior of the aged in Japan that became available recently. To summarize the main findings of this paper, virtually all previous studies as well as the newly available data I analyze find that the retired aged dissave and that even the working aged dissave, at least at advanced ages. Moreover, there has been a sharp increase in the dissaving of the retired aged since 2000, with the increase being due primarily to reductions in social security benefits, increases in consumption expenditures, and increases in taxes and social insurance premiums. These findings are consistent with the life-cycle model and suggest that this model is highly applicable in the case of Japan.     

Transition from School to Work in Japan

Using retrospective data of young people's work experience in Japan, this paper found that initial labor market conditions, i.e., when workers first enter the labor market after permanently leaving school, have a significant lasting impact on the employment experiences of workers in their teens and twenties. An increase in the unemployment rate at the time of labor market entry reduces the probability of gaining full-time regular employment and, more important, increases the future probability of workers of leaving employers by lowering the quality of job matches. It was also found that the vocational guidance or recommendations workers received at school could be effective in raising the quality of job matches. The adverse effect of initial unemployment rates on employment opportunities was most profoundly observed among female college graduates. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2001, 15(4), pp. 465–488. Faculty of Economics, Gakushuin University, 1-5-1 Mejiro Toshima-ku, Tokyo 171-8588, Japan; and Faculty of Economics, Meiji Gakuin University, 1-2-37 Shirokane-dai Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8636, Japan. © 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J24, J63, J64.     

Time zones,shift working and international outsourcing

We build a trade model with two identical countries located in different time zones and one sector with intermediate differentiated goods produced in two successive stages. We introduce shift working disutility that raises night wage and firms that “virtually” outsource foreign labor. We found that firms only outsource if outsourcing costs are relatively low and shift disutility is high. When outsourcing occurs, it generates the highest level of welfare among production modes. Intermediate values of shift working disutility generate the lowest level of welfare. Outsourcing and domestic labor are substitutes at the firm level and complements at the economy level.     

Profit-Volume-Exchange-Rate Analysis for Planning International Operations

We extend the conventional Profit-Volume (P-V) analysis to develop a new model of Profit-Exchange-Rate (P-ER) analysis to evaluate how exchange rate fluctuations impact profit. We begin by classifying costs as either "global cost" or "local cost" according to whether or not input prices are exchange-rate sensitive. This classification is analogous to the familiar variable/fixed cost classification based on the cost sensitivity to volume change. Data for the U.S. and Japanese steel industries are used to illustrate the approach. We then combine the conventional Profit-Volume analysis with the Profit-Exchange-Rate analysis to form a composite model, called Profit-Volume-Exchange-Rate (P-VER) analysis, where both volume and exchange rate vary. We show that this composite approach suggests the use of a single rate-volume variable, similar to "person-hours," as the key planning-control variable for international operations.     

Aging,Savings, and Public Pensions in Japan*

We analyze the impact of population aging on Japan's household savings rate and on its public pension system and the impact of that system on Japan's household savings rate and obtain the following results: first, the age structure of Japan's population can explain the level of, and past and future trends in, its household savings rate; second, the rapid aging of Japan's population is causing Japan's household savings rate to decline and this decline can be expected to continue; third, the pay‐as‐you‐go nature of the public pension system, combined with rapid population aging, created considerable intergenerational inequities and increased the savings rates of cohorts born after 1965, which in turn slowed the decline in Japan's household savings rate; and fourth, the 2004 public pension reform alleviated the intergenerational inequities of Japan's public pension system somewhat but will in the long run exacerbate the downward trend in Japan's household savings rate.     

市场结合型日中物流管理系统的建立

本文认为,为满足顾客需要,必须从供应链整体出发,重新设计和构建物流管理系统。近年来,随着中国向日本商品供应规模的不断扩大,起支撑作用的物流管理系统也发生了显著变化,日中之间的物流管理系统以消费品为中心实现了从投机原理向推迟原理的转型。以前,中方向日方的供给体制是面向整个市场进行大量生产,但随着日本市场多样化和精细化的发展,这种体制的局限性不断显现。目前按照日方规格进行生产、按照日方市场需求组合物流管理系统的管理模式得到了较大发展。文章提出,反映每个顾客需求的供应模式以及与高效率生产体制互动的供应模式,在供应链战略中将越来越重要。今后日中之间物流管理系统战略的实施,应考虑如下两种模式:一是实施完全推迟战略,生产、物流管理均依据推迟原理,按客户的每个订单组织生产,直接送货上门,通过缩短交货期、采用高水平物流管理,来满足精细化的市场需要;二是实施与高效率生产体制互动的供应模式,按照国际标准生产,进行高效率生产,考虑日本市场需要,同时通过各种管理方式的有效组合,降低生产成本,满足顾客特殊需要。日中之间的物流管理系统必须与市场相结合,不断满足每个客户的需要,才能实现整个流通环节的高速度和物流服务的高水平。     

IS JAPAN'S HOUSEHOLD SAVING RATE REALLY HIGH?

This paper discusses, and measures the quantitative impact of, a number of conceptual issues relating to the household saving rate data in the National Accounts of Japan. It finds that Japan's seemingly high household saving rate is biased due to the exclusion of capital transfers and real capital gains, the valuation of depreciation at historical cost rather than at replacement cost, the use of a residual measure of financial saving rather than Flow of Funds Accounts data thereon, and the treatment of expenditures on consumer durables as consumption rather than as saving, but that the biases are to a considerable extent mutually offsetting. It also finds that the Japan-U.S. gap in household (personal) saving rates is due largely to conceptual differences and deficiencies and that household saving in Japan consists primarily of financial saving (net lending), meaning that most of it is available to finance investment in other sectors of the economy and/or abroad.     

淮南市大通区耕地地力评价及其利用

该文以淮南市大通区第二次土壤普查资料和测土配方施肥数据为基础,在GIS和计算机技术的支持下,利用层次分析法对大通区耕地地力进行了评价,得出大通区各地力等级比例分别为一等地为16.2％,二等地为41.6％,三等地为28.6％,四等地为9.1％,五等地为4.5％.并结合研究区实际情况对不同等级耕地进行了描述性分析,探索性地提出了耕地的利用方式和改良措施.