中国共产党对外贸易政策演进:成就与展望

对外贸易是中国经济腾飞增长的重要势能.回溯中国对外贸易政策的发展历程,不仅有助于分析中国共产党是如何带领中国人民站起来、富起来、强起来的,也有助于理解习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想中关于对外开放与国际合作新理念的理论基础与现实依据.本文首先基于时间维度,从革命战争时期、社会主义建设时期、改革开放时期、加入世贸组织深入全球贸易体系时期等不同历史阶段,回顾了中国共产党在国际经贸领域的政策演进历程.然后,本文从贸易规模、贸易结构、贸易主体、贸易贡献等角度总结出中国经贸百年来取得的辉煌成就,并基于上述分析进一步提炼出贸易政策如何助力中国成为经贸大国.接着,本文结合当下国际、国内形势,深刻理解习近平新时代中国特色社会主义经济思想,分析其在构建人类命运共同体、实行更高水平对外开放、促进国内国际双循环等方面的理论贡献.最后,本文展望未来,立足于经贸强国的目标,擘画中国经贸发展第二个百年奋斗蓝图.     

共享创新模式:内涵、特征与模型构建

共享创新模式是共享经济下集中群体智慧、共享创新资源的创新模式。该模式具有开放性与民主性、可复制性与海量性、分享与产权多元化、收益与价值多样性、社区与边界模糊性、低风险与高互动性、低成本与高效率性等复杂特征。因其由个人、企业、正式组织和非正式组织等分别构成的创新需求方、供给方、基于互联网的共享平台及第三方参与机构构成,可有效克服传统封闭创新模式下资源约束的弊端,是一种在分享式创新模式基础上发展起来的多向、互利的新型开放式创新模式。     

Macroeconomic impacts on commodity prices: China vs. the United States

This study compares the macroeconomic impacts of China and the United States on international commodity markets using a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model with latent factors extracted from a rich data set that includes various macroeconomic and financial indicators at monthly frequency. The main results suggest that whether or not the Chinese demand cause commodity prices to soar depends. Macroeconomic factors of China do have significant impact on commodity markets, but the impacts of the United States outperform those of China in terms of the size of coefficients and their level of significance, as well as the direction and magnitude of directional return spillovers. Moreover, the effects of these factors on individual commodity futures are not a universal phenomenon. Therefore, there is no systematic evidence of a relationship between strong growth in the emerging economy and the boom in commodity futures prices, either statistically or economically.     

组织双元性创新模式演化路径研究

优秀的创新型组织通过对开发性创新与探索性创新进行有效的双元性管理，追求创新绩效和效率最大化。很多学者讨论了“开发路径依赖”和“探索持续失败”两种双元性创新能力陷阱的存在及其诱因，但并未讨论其对立情况。在论证组织双元性创新必要性的基础上，分类并对比了7种创新型组织,讨论了与先前研究对立情境下的“探索路径依赖”与“开发持续失败”能力陷阱，并详细说明了组织双元性创新均衡模式退化的4种路径。     

求助越多,适应越好?新员工求助频率、求助行为类型与组织社会化

新员工是注入企业的新鲜力量,能够给组织带来活力,但同时也面临着一些挑战,如组织社会化.本研究旨在探讨新员工组织社会化的影响因素,特别地,本研究从求助行为切入,拟检验求助频率与组织社会化之间的关系,以及求助行为类型的调节作用.通过对314名企业新员工的问卷调查,研究结果表明:新员工的求助频率与其组织社会化呈正相关.此外,求助行为类型在二者关系中起到调节作用:当求助行为主要体现为自主型求助行为时,求助频率与组织社会化之间的正向关系越强;当求助行为主要体现为依赖型求助行为时,求助频率与组织社会化之间的正向关系越弱.本研究不仅对组织社会化、求助行为领域具有理论贡献,还能为促进新员工的组织社会化提供实践启发.     

A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Information‐Based Trading: Theory and Applications

This paper develops a novel approach to information‐based securities trading by characterizing the hidden state of the market, which varies following a Markov process. Extensive simulation demonstrates that the approach can successfully identify market states and generate dynamic measures of information‐based trading that outperform prevailing models. A sample of 120 NYSE stocks further verifies that it can better depict trading dynamics. With this sample, we characterize the features of information asymmetry and belief dispersion around earnings announcements. The sample is also applied to the study of the co‐movements of trading activities due to private information or disputable public information. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quality-adjusted survival with combination nab-paclitaxel + gemcitabine vs gemcitabine alone in metastatic pancreatic cancer: a Q-TWiST analysis

Objectives:

To use the Quality-Adjusted Time Without Symptoms or Toxicities (Q-TWiST) methodology to compare the quality-of-life and survival benefits associated with the combination of albumin-bound (nab)-paclitaxel and gemcitabine vs gemcitabine alone in the first-line treatment of metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

Methods:

Total survival time through 45 months was partitioned into time before disease progression without toxicity grade ≥3 (TWiST), time with adverse event grade ≥3 (TOX), and time of disease progression (REL). Mean Q-TWiST was calculated by multiplying time spent in each health state by its respective utility (i.e., TWiST?=?1.00; TOX/REL?=?0.50, 0–1 in sensitivity analyses). Non-parametric bootstrap 95% confidence intervals (CI) were derived to assess the significance of between-treatment differences in TOX, TWiST, REL, and Q-TWiST. A relative gain in Q-TWiST (vs mean overall survival of gemcitabine) of ≥10% and ≥15% was defined as clinically important and clearly clinically important, respectively.

Results:

Patients on nab-paclitaxel?+?gemcitabine spent a significantly longer time in every state and experienced significantly greater overall Q-TWiST (+1.7 months [95% CI?=?0.8, 2.7]) than those receiving gemcitabine alone (8.2 months [95% CI?=?7.5, 8.9] vs 6.5 months [95% CI?=?5.8, 7.0]), assuming base-case utilities of TOX/REL?=?0.50. This Q-TWiST gain ranged from 1.0 month (95% CI?=?0.1, 1.9), when REL/TOX utilities were both 0, to 2.5 months (95% CI?=?1.3, 3.7), when REL/TOX utilities were both 1. Relative gains in Q-TWiST were 21% in favor of nab-paclitaxel?+?gemcitabine in the base case, and ranged from 12–30% in sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions:

There are limitations to Q-TWiST analyses, e.g., imprecision when defining duration/severity of TOX and lack of prospective collection of utilities. This analysis addressed these issues via sensitivity analyses and conservative assumptions to show that nab-paclitaxel?+?gemcitabine results in statistically significant and clinically important gains in quality-adjusted survival, when compared to gemcitabine alone, in treatment-naive metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients.     

Does Foreign Venture Capital Provide More Value‐added Services to Initial Public Offering Companies in China?

This paper uses all 1404 initial public offerings (IPO) undertaken between 2002 and 2012 in China to analyze whether venture capital (VC) investment, especially foreign VC investment, brings more or less value‐added services to the invested companies during the 3 years following the IPO. The results show that venture capitalists choose to invest in companies with higher value potential, and, in turn, the value of the companies increases after the IPO is undertaken; foreign VC adds more value to companies than domestic venture capital. However, the profitability of VC‐backed and non VC‐backed companies after IPO does not differ significantly. Nevertheless, it is shown that VC plays an active role in China.     

Stock Option Schedules and Managerial Opportunism

This study investigates some of the most important avenues that mangers use to manipulate the value of stock option grants. It also compares the use of these avenues in firms that issue scheduled options and in firms that issue irregular options. We document that before the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act (SOX), cumulative abnormal returns were significantly negative in the 30‐day window before an option grant, but cumulative abnormal returns turned significantly positive after the option grant. This pattern is more pronounced for irregular options, and the evidence supports the hypothesis that opportunistic manipulation of strike prices by CEOs maximized the value of the option grants. We find the disclosure requirement of option grants included in SOX successfully curtails opportunistic behavior in firms that issue scheduled options, but has a lesser effect stopping opportunistic behavior in firms that issue irregular options. Firms granting irregular options take larger negative discretionary accruals in advance of the grant than firms that grant scheduled options, and the degree of downward earnings management increases with the size of the subsequent grant. We further show that firms are more likely to issue irregular options when they offer larger option grants, have a less independent board, receive less analyst coverage, have a new CEO, exhibit poor prior performance, have higher stock return volatility and are smaller in size.     

加强考风建设 确保高校人才培养质量

良好的考风是一所学校教学效果、教学管理的综合反映,是确保人才培养质量的关键,本文针对高校考风出现的问题,提出了加强考风建设的途径。