Prediction regions for interval-valued time series

We approximate probabilistic forecasts for interval-valued time series by offering alternative approaches. After fitting a possibly non-Gaussian bivariate vector autoregression (VAR) model to the center/log-range system, we transform prediction regions (analytical and bootstrap) for this system into regions for center/range and upper/lower bounds systems. Monte Carlo simulations show that bootstrap methods are preferred according to several new metrics. For daily S&P 500 low/high returns, we build joint conditional prediction regions of the return level and volatility. We illustrate the usefulness of obtaining bootstrap forecasts regions for low/high returns by developing a trading strategy and showing its profitability when compared to using point forecasts.     

Different forms of corporate philanthropy,different effects: A multilevel analysis

This study investigates how different types of corporate philanthropy impact employees' life satisfaction. Grounded in signaling theory, we explore and clarify the nuances among three types of corporate philanthropy values: the absolute value of corporate philanthropy, the value of a firm's corporate philanthropy relative to its past level, and the value of corporate philanthropy relative to the firm size. Results of multilevel analyses on a large scale sample with 218 firms and 2,261 employees at two time points reveal that: the absolute value of corporate philanthropy positively influences employees' life satisfaction; the value of a firm's corporate philanthropy relative to its past philanthropy negatively impacts employees’ life satisfaction; and the value of corporate philanthropy relative to the firm size positively affects employees' life satisfaction. The results indicate that the influences of corporate philanthropy on employees' life satisfaction vary depending on the evaluation benchmarks. Firms may benefit by taking their size and past philanthropy into consideration when making corporate philanthropy investment decisions.     

基于经济阈值效应的地方政府举债压力弹性研究

地区所处经济阶段差异会使地方政府行为激励产生异质性,进而影响地区举债压力弹性。从经济阈值效应的独特视角,探究不同经济门槛区间压力波动引起的地方政府举债行为变化,利用举债压力弹性解释地方政府债务规模扩张成因。基于我国283个地级市数据,构建门槛面板模型对理论假设进行经验检验。研究发现:从低到高的经济阈值区间下地方政府举债压力弹性翻倍增长,尤其是在第三经济阈值区间,举债规模扩张呈现加速度特征;财政压力对地方政府举债的刺激作用,只有在第三经济阈值区间才会得以释放;“土地财政”的存在强化了地方政府举债对压力变化的敏感度,并助推了地方政府举债压力的弹性波动。经济处于发达阶段的地方政府的举债压力敏感度,显著高于处于欠发达阶段的地方政府,因此,高水平的城市举债压力弹性及其潜在的债务风险应成为下一步关注的焦点。     

消费者生活方式与物质主义价值观的相关性研究

本文主要研究生活方式与物质主义价值观的相关关系。基于495位消费者的问卷调查数据，借助因子分析方法，探索出11个生活方式因子，利用这11个因子进行聚类分析，将调查样本划分为5个子市场。随后，用方差分析法分析得出结果：5个子市场在物质主义价值观上有显著性差异，并用最小显著差异法进行两两比较，确认了具有不同生活方式的消费者在物质主义价值观上的差别。     

现阶段网络食品安全存在的问题及对策

食物是人类社会不断发展、进化的动力源泉。食品安全问题关系着每个国人的切身利益。近年来,随着互联网逐渐走进千家万户,网购食品也就应运而生。人们在享受着这种便利的同时,也承担着一定的风险。特别是最近网络食品安全问题被接连曝光,使食品安全成为人们关心的热点问题。本文分析了现阶段网络食品存在的问题,如网络食品质量问题、卖家信用问题及消费者维权问题,并提出了相应的对策,以期能逐渐改善目前的网络食品安全问题,切实保障消费者的权益。     

Barrier present value maximization for a diffusion model of insurance surplus

In this paper, we study a barrier present value (BPV) maximization problem for an insurance entity whose surplus process follows an arithmetic Brownian motion. The BPV is defined as the expected discounted value of a payment made at the time when the surplus process reaches a high barrier level. The insurance entity buys proportional reinsurance and invests in a Black–Scholes market to maximize the BPV. We show that the maximal BPV function is a classical solution to the corresponding Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation and is three times continuously differentiable using a novel operator. Its associated optimal reinsurance-investment control policy is determined by verification techniques.     

Revisiting Border Effect: Evidence from Taobao.com in China

Inherent home bias and trade barriers (particularly local protectionism in China), which are difficult to separate, are two main explanations of border effect. We attempt to solve this problem by analyzing online trade. Different from offline trade, inherent home bias is the only cause of online border effect because local governments are usually unable to restrict online trade. Thus, the difference between the border effect in online and offline trade can be reasonably interpreted as the existence of government protectionism in the offline market. We find a statistically significant difference between online and offline border effects in China, which can be interpreted as strong evidence that policy barriers remain significant and hinder interregional trade.     

知识经济时代企业财务管理问题研究

知识经济的发展是当今世界经济一体化的必然趋势,随着我国改革开放的不断深入,企业的经营环境发生了很大变化,推动了企业财务管理理论和实践的发展.在知识经济时代,知识成为最重要的经济因素,由此引发的经济革命将重塑全球经济的新格局,并将引起政治、社会的全面变革.随着知识经济的到来,传统财务管理的一些观念和内容也面临着严重的挑战.     

机械密封式电缆贯穿件研制

核电站、核反应堆等核装置为了防止放射性物质外泄,在电缆穿墙(壁)时采用电缆贯穿件进行隔离。通常电缆贯穿件需将电缆截断采用插接件进行密封,插接式电缆贯穿件密封性能容易保证,密封可靠,泄漏率可达到极小。但加工零件多、精度要求较高,制造成本高。特别是对于大电流动力电缆和要求较高的信号同轴电缆,容易产生插接电极发热过大和信号衰减。为了满足工程需要,采用不截断电缆,不破坏电缆护套,本文研制了一套试验样机。样机经过密封性能、电气性能和抗震试验的验证。样机的的各项技术指标满足工程要求,泄漏率小于1×10-7Pa.m.3s-1。