Stochastic search variable selection in vector error correction models with an application to a model of the UK macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for stochastic search variable selection (currently popular with regression and vector autoregressive models) for vector error correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Social Motives and Trust: Implications for Joint Gains in Negotiations

This study examined the role of trust via contingency model in a multi-issue multi-party negotiation setting and how it relates to outcomes. Results of a laboratory experiment with 288 undergraduate students confirmed both a main effect of Social Value Orientations (SVO), such that cooperative negotiators achieved higher joint gains than pro-self negotiators, and a main effect of Motivational Orientations (MO), such that pro-social negotiators attained higher joint gains than egoistic-oriented negotiators. Furthermore, the predicted interaction effect between SVO and MO, such that negotiators with a pro-self SVO attained higher joint gains in a pro-social, in contrast to an egoistic MO, condition was confirmed. This effect was fully mediated by trust. The dimension of trust that explained the SVO and MO interaction was that of concern for fellow negotiators as rated by oneself, as well as by an objective third-party observer. Implications for the strategic use of social motives and trust on effective information exchange and negotiated outcomes are discussed.     

Consistent price systems and arbitrage opportunities of?the?second kind in models with transaction costs

In contrast with the classical models of frictionless financial markets, market models with proportional transaction costs, even satisfying usual no-arbitrage properties, may admit arbitrage opportunities of the second kind. This means that there are self-financing portfolios with initial endowments lying outside the solvency region but ending inside. Such a phenomenon was discovered by M. Rásonyi in the discrete-time framework. In this note, we consider a rather abstract continuous-time setting and prove necessary and sufficient conditions for a property which we call no free lunch of the second kind, NFL2. We provide a number of equivalent conditions elucidating, in particular, the financial meaning of the property B which appeared as an indispensable “technical” hypothesis in previous papers on hedging (superreplication) of contingent claims under transaction costs. We show that it is equivalent to another condition on the “richness” of the set of consistent price systems, close to the condition PCE introduced by Rásonyi. In the last section, we deduce the Rásonyi theorem from our general result by using specific features of discrete-time models.     

Are the Discounts in Seasoned Equity Offers Due to Inelastic Demand?

This paper investigates the large and diverse discounts in UK open offers and placings. Large discounts are a substantial cost to shareholders who do not buy new shares. The existing literature mainly examines US firm‐commitment offers and private placements. The institutional setting differs in the UK, in ways that make the theory of inelastic demand for shares more important as an explanation for discounts than in the US. The paper finds that inelastic demand, or illiquidity of the issuer's shares, and financial distress, are key determinants of the discount. We expect these results to apply to other stock markets.     

Accounting and the formation of share market prices over time: a mathematical institutional economic analysis through simulation and experiment

This article develops a heterogeneous agents-based model to examine the emergent dynamic properties of share market price formation over time, with a view on financial market stability under alternative accounting regimes. In the model, individual heterogeneous investors interact with each other and with institutional devices which are an accounting system (related to the business firm) and a price system (related to the Share Exchange). These interactions provide mechanisms for transmission through which firm-specific (accounting signal) and market-driven (aggregate price) factors can act. A baseline simulation analysis assesses the financial market stability under three alternative accounting designs, namely two kinds of historical cost accounting regime and one kind of fair-value (mark-to-market) accounting regime. The former prove to better stabilize the financial system in terms of market volatility and exuberance in perfectly balanced conditions between speculative and fundamentalist beliefs and intentions. An evolutionary analysis is then developed by varying the relative degree of speculative attitudes between the two sides of the market. Historical cost accounting regimes further prove to make the financial system more resilient to speculative waves occurring at inter-individual level. Baseline findings are further corroborated through experimental analysis in twelve artificial financial systems. This mathematical institutional economic analysis has general implications for both designing accounting systems aimed at enhancing financial market stability and preventing procyclicality, and the study of accounting information process in the formation of share market prices over time.     

LATIN AMERICAN EXCHANGE RATE DEPENDENCIES: A REGULAR VINE COPULA APPROACH

This study implements a regular vine copula methodology to evaluate the level of contagion among the exchange rates of six Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru) from June 2005 to April 2012. We measure contagion in terms of tail dependence coefficients, following Fratzscher's (1999) definition of contagion as interdependence. Our results indicate that these countries are divided into two blocks. The first block consists of Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Mexico, whose exchange rates exhibit the largest dependence coefficients, and the second block consists of Argentina and Peru, whose exchange rate dependence coefficients with other Latin American countries are low. We also found that most of the Latin American exchange rate pairs exhibit asymmetric behaviors characterized by nonsignificant upper tail dependence and significant lower tail dependence. These results imply that there exists contagion in Latin American exchange rates in periods of large appreciations, whereas there is no evidence of contagion during periods of currency depreciation. This empirical regularity may reflect the “fear of appreciation” in emerging economies identified by Levy‐Yeyati, Sturzenegger, and Gluzmann (2013). (JEL C32, C51, E42)     

Cross‐cultural differences on work‐to‐family conflict and role satisfaction: A Taiwanese‐British comparison

The aim of this research was to explore relations between work and family demands and resources, work‐to‐family conflict (WFC), and work and family outcomes in a cross‐cultural comparative context involving Taiwanese and British employees. Two‐hundred and sixty‐four Taiwanese employees and 137 British employees were surveyed using structured questionnaires. For both Taiwanese and British employees, work and family demands were positively related to WFC, whereas work resources were negatively related to WFC. Furthermore, WFC was negatively related to family satisfaction. More importantly, we found that nation moderated relationships between work resources and WFC, WFC and work, and family satisfaction. Specifically, work resources had a stronger protective effect for Taiwanese than British in reducing WFC, whereas WFC had a stronger detrimental effect on role satisfaction for British than Taiwanese. It is recommended that both culture‐general and culture‐specific effects should be taken into consideration in designing future WFC research and familyfriendly managerial practices. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Internationalisation speed and technological patterns: A panel data study on Spanish SMEs

The last ten years has seen a proliferation of works attempting to explain why some firms internationalise rapidly, rather than following a sequential process. Many of these works have focused on the role of technology as the driving force behind the phenomenon. Following this argument, this work studies the effect that different technological patterns have on firms' internationalisation speed. In order to observe this effect, a sample of 945 SMEs was used over a 17-year period (1990–2006). By undertaking a micro-level analysis, we explain the possible effect of sectoral technological intensity on internationalisation speed, observing significant differences between technology-intensive and non-intensive sectors, and identify which technological parameters have a greater effect on the acceleration of internationalisation in each of these sectors.