The UK technology foresight programme: An assessment of expert estimates

Since the early 1990s, ‘Technology Foresight’ exercises with special emphasis on the use of Delphi surveys have played an important role in science and technology (S + T) policy across Europe in an effort to focus resource allocation. Yet, none of the estimates made in the European Delphi surveys have been formally assessed in retrospect, while this process has been incorporated into the Japanese surveys since 1996. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme, this research sets out to assess the estimates of three of the fifteen panel Delphi surveys. Whilst on average 2/3 of Delphi statements were predicted to be realised by 2004, it will be shown that only a fraction of these statements had been realised by 2006. Based on the evidence collected from the published panel reports, the ‘Hindsight on Foresight’ survey conducted by OST in 1995 and interviews with panel members, it will be argued that the overwhelming majority of estimates were overly optimistic. While optimism and strategic gaming of experts is the most convincing explanation for these results, process factors were also explored, including the quality of expert panels used, the Delphi statements and the respondents of the Delphi questionnaire. It is argued that at least the issue of short-range optimism and strategic gaming of experts should be addressed in future Delphi exercises, as decision makers relying on expert advice cannot deal with this issue alone.     

Suspending disbelief: Influencing engagement in scenarios of forest futures

Scenario analysis is an approach to long-term planning that informs decision-making in contexts of highly uncertain future conditions. Scenario-based studies are rapidly growing in popularity, yet many aspects of the method are not fully understood. Participants' willingness to suspend disbelief in possible futures is an integral component of scenario-based studies, essential for considering alternative future scenarios, yet little is known about the factors that affect it. Participation in a scenario project does not necessarily imply willingness or ability to suspend disbelief; participants may not suspend disbelief simply upon request. However, the scenario literature says little about the aspects of scenario-based studies that influence suspension of disbelief.This article explores the factors that influenced the suspension of disbelief in one scenario exercise about the future of Canada's forests. Participants differed in their abilities to suspend disbelief in the scenarios in part because of their past experiences and expertise in particular areas, and their assessments of probable and desired future outcomes. Elements of the project design and implementation influenced participants' abilities to engage the scenarios. The results have implications for those interested in using scenarios for helping people and communities envision possible - and sustainable - futures.     

Contagion effects of electronic commerce diffusion: Perspective from network analysis of industrial structure

This study presents a quantitative method for investigating the diffusion of e-commerce adoption using social network analysis methodologies. The contagion effects on innovation diffusion are examined by two different social network models: the cohesion model, which is based on diffusion by direct communication, and the structural equivalence model, which is based on diffusion by similarity of network position. This study then empirically examines a sample of e-commerce diffusion taken from the Taiwan's industrial structure in 2001. The analytical results show that e-commerce diffusion among firms in Taiwan exhibits both contagion effects, but that the mimetic behavior is predicted better by network position than by interactions with others.     

How does a cluster relocate across the border? The case of information technology cluster in the Taiwan-Suzhou region

Since the end of the Cold War, cross-border regions have proliferated at the borders of formal socialist countries, especially in China. Existing accounts of these emergences treat them either at the macro-level, focusing on political initiatives, or at the micro-level, with emphasis on social and economic relations. This paper uses the Taiwan-Suzhou cross-border region as a case study for suggesting a meso-level approach, arguing that as a result of continuous interactions between individual Taiwanese information technology firms and opportunity structures generated by the selective opening of the Chinese border, the formation of cross-border high-tech regions is shaped and determined at the level of the industrial system. The industrial system acts as a platform for coordination and cooperation between local elites and foreign investors and among individual firms within this system. The formation of the cross-border high-tech region thus involves the relocation and institutional re-embedding of industrial systems across the border, which has been accompanied by the systemic building of Taiwanese firms on the one hand, and the institutional innovation of Chinese local states on the other.     

Residents’ support for tourism: An Identity Perspective

Studies on residents’ support for tourism have primarily been conducted in the developed world. This study analyzes community support in the island economy of Mauritius by testing a model based on the social exchange theory and the identity theory. The model proposes that the resource-based occupational identity, environmental identity, and gender identity of the residents influence attitudes to tourism impacts and support (behavior). Results indicate that one’s identity has a direct bearing on support, but may not always influence attitudes. Findings confirm the relevance of the social exchange theory and the identity theory in explaining community support for tourism in island economies. The study’s practical implications and limitations are discussed.     

Exploiting innovative opportunities in global purchasing: An assessment of ethical climate and relationship performance

Purchasing managers are expected to balance costs, innovation, supplier management, and corporate social responsibility while coordinating expanding areas of the corporation. The increased responsibilities and pressures to innovate brings purchasing managers into potentially increasingly difficult ethical dilemmas. In this study, we examine the relationships between organizational culture, learning, entrepreneurial innovation, and purchasing outcomes in different ethical climates. To address external business conditions that may influence innovation in purchasing, we also examine the moderating effects of technological and market turbulence. Data from 200 purchasing managers in multinational corporations were used to test the relationships through structural equation modeling. We find that entrepreneurial innovation positively affects the quality of the relationships among sourcing participants when operating in a climate valuing ethics. The study results are particularly relevant for managers concerned that establishing an ethical climate may restrict innovation in the purchasing process.     

The blame game: An attribution theory approach to marketer-engineer conflict in high-technology companies

Marketer-engineer conflict is a pervasive and as-yet unresolved problem of critical importance to high-technology companies. This study updates and extends marketing literature by applying qualitative research methods including the critical incident technique to examine the causes of conflict between marketers and engineers in high-technology companies. Narratives from both marketers and engineers are interpreted from an attribution theory perspective as well as in the context of recent management research on interfunctional conflict. Results draw attention to a high proportion of personal attributions, indicating high levels of relationship-conflict; these results are in contrast to the task-conflict typically addressed by the marketing literature. Discussion highlights the changes in high-technology organizational culture since first by described by Workman 15 years ago [Workman, J. (1993). Marketing's limited role in new product development in one computer systems firm. Journal of Marketing Research, 30 (4), 405-421.], and recommendations for managers are offered.     

Exclusive territories and performance dimensions in industrial distribution channels

There are two main approaches to studying vertical restraints in distribution channels: the anti-competitive and the efficiency approach. This article sets out to analyze the effects of exclusive territories agreements on performance levels in the distribution channel by proposing a number of hypotheses based upon these two approaches and by testing them with paired data from a sample of 116 manufacturer-dealer relationships from the Spanish industrial market. Results show that manufacturers and dealers perceive higher role performance levels in their partners in relationships characterized by exclusive territories. In a similar way, both manufacturers and dealers obtain higher levels of business performance in exclusive territories relationships, but we found no support for a direct effect of this vertical restraint on business performance. Instead, this effect is completely mediated by the higher levels of role performance associated with the exclusive territories agreement. Thus, empirical findings suggest that the economic outcomes achieved in ET relationships are due not to the presence of monopoly rents, but rather to the better role performance of the participants.