经济领先指数构建及对资产配置的影响

通过选取多个对宏观经济具有领先性的初始指标构造合成的经济领先指数(CLI),并研究了CLI对宏观经济的预警能力以及对资产及股票风格配置的影响。结果发现:CLI指标领先工业增加值5个月以上,且对宏观经济指标均有持续稳定的影响;HP滤波相对EMD和Hamilton方法能够更好地提取CLI的趋势项,用马尔科夫区制转换模型对CLI趋势项进行状态划分,发现CLI对股债配置以及股票风格配置可以起到非常有益的指导作用,股债轮动、规模轮动以及价值轮动策略在样本区间分别可以获得12.93%、15.6%及14%的收益率,远高于单独对两项资产的买入持有配置以及等权配置。综合来看,构造的CLI指标不仅能够对宏观经济进行提前预判,而且对资产配置实践具有较强的指导意义。     

2005年中国纺织品贸易回顾

为了遏制中国纺织服装产品出口,早在中国入世谈判期间,美国与欧盟就主张将<中国加入世贸组织工作组报告书>第242条款强加于中国.该条款规定,其他世贸组织成员在2008年12月31日前可对中国纺织服装产品实施特别保障措施.去年,美欧对中国纺织品发起的特保争端就是以第242条款为依据.同时,<中国加入世贸组织议定书>第十五条、第十六条也为进口国借助反倾销和保障措施阻挠中国产品出口提供了便利.除此之外,各类技术性贸易壁垒也会不断对中国出口纺织服装产品提出新的要求.而一些发展中国家担心在纺织品后配额时代,失去原有的欧美纺织出口市场,绞尽脑汁阻止中国纺织品出口.因此,中国的纺织品出口在短期内尚面临诸多挑战.     

Portfolio Returns,Market Volatility,and Seasonality

This paper examines three important issues related to the relationship between stock returns and volatility. First, are Duffee's (1995) findings of the relationship between individual stock returns and volatility valid at the portfolio level? Second, is there a seasonality of the market return volatility? Lastly, do size portfolio returns react symmetrically to the market volatility during business cycles? We find that the market volatility exhibits strong autocorrelation and small size portfolio returns exhibit seasonality. However, this phenomenon is not present in large size portfolios. For the entire sample period of 1962–1995, the highest average monthly volatility occurred in October, followed by November, and then January. Examining the two sub-sample periods, we find that the average market volatility increases by 15.4% in the second sample period of 1980–1995 compared to the first sample period of 1962–1979. During the contraction period, the average market volatility is 60.9% higher than that during the expansion period. Using a binary regression model, we find that size portfolio returns react asymmetrically with the market volatility during business cycles. This paper documents a strongly negative contemporaneous relationship between the size portfolio returns and the market volatility that is consistent with the previous findings at the aggregate level, but is inconsistent with the findings at the individual firm level. In contrast with the previous findings, however, we find an ambiguous relationship between the percentage change in the market volatility and the contemporaneous stock portfolio returns. This ambiguity is attributed to strongly negative contemporaneous and one-month ahead relationships between the market volatility and portfolio returns.

     

Knowledge spillovers from FDI in China: The role of educated labor in multinational enterprises

This paper employs a firm-level panel data set for a high-tech cluster in China to examine knowledge spillovers from multinational enterprises (MNEs) to domestic firms, focusing on the role of MNEs’ employment of educated workers. We find that knowledge of MNEs spills over to domestic firms in the same industry through MNEs’ employment of workers with graduate-level or overseas education. We also find that Japanese MNEs contribute less to knowledge spillovers than US MNEs. This is likely due to the fact that Japanese MNEs in China do not employ much educated labor.     

关于办好成人高校学报的几个问题

成人高校学报应立足自身的专业优势和行业优势，走一条不同于普通高校学报的发展之路。适时转变办刊理念，找准自己的社会位置，办出特色，利用自身资源开展多种经营，是成人高校学报实现两个效益的关键。     

农业劳动力在区域农业间互补性流动研究——劳动力与资本的替代效应对我国农业产出的影响

农业劳动力转移植根于农业与工业发展不均衡的二元经济结构.这一特点使我们的注意力主要集中在农业人口向工业或城市转移上,但随着农村经济的发展,中国自身区域间农业发展的差异性也逐渐显露出来.使得以均质二元经济为基础的发展政策也产生了一定的局限性.因此,在我国不同区域间农业发展不均衡的条件下,可以通过农业劳动力在区域农业间互补性流动以促进农业产出增长,为我国解决二元经济问题提供一个新的思路.     

FDI对中国三大经济地带就业效应的实证分析

FDI的就业效应按其作用内容可分为就业数量效应、就业质量效应.利用以科布一道格拉斯函数为基础的FDI就业效应的计量模型,通过对中国的相关数据的实证分析,可以得出FDI流量对中国就业的数量和质量都产生了较明显的正面作用,且对东部地区的就业效应要大于中、西部地区,FDI存量则对中国就业的数量和质量产生间接的负面效应,而对东、中西部就业数量的总体就业效应为正,就业质量的总体效应为负.因此,应改善西部投资环境对FDI的流向分流引导,进一步加快国企改革,提高技术水平和竞争力.     

全面贯彻落实“三个代表”重要思想

（续上期）第一，必须完整准确地理解“三个代表”重要思想全面贯彻落实“三个代表”的要求，首先应该对“三个代表”重要思想有一个完整、准确的理解。所谓完整、准确地理解，就不是片面的而是全面的理解，不是断章取义而是系统的掌握，不是歪曲而是正确的认识。要把握“三个     

供应链运行机制对非财务绩效的影响分析——我国药品分销供应链绩效困境的导因分析

药品流通运行机制改革对药品分销领域形成巨大冲击,药品分销供应链非财务绩效不仅受到其自身运行效率的影响,还受到来自现行制度及政策导向的影响。本文从分析我国药品分销供应链运行机制入手,阐明其对药品分销供应链非财务绩效的影响,通过对四对矛盾的深层次剖析,揭示影响药品分销供应链非财务绩效的关键导因。     

阻断性压力源与工作-家庭冲突:谦卑和学习目标导向的调节作用

基于资源保存理论和压力交互模型,本研究探讨了阻断性压力源对工作-家庭冲突的影响及其边界条件.对国内120名企业员工的数据分析结果表明,阻断性压力源正向影响工作-家庭冲突,除此之外,谦卑和学习目标导向共同调节了阻断性压力源和工作-家庭冲突之间的关系,具体地,当谦卑和学习目标导向均高的时候,阻断性压力源与工作-家庭冲突之间的正向关系最弱;相反,对于谦卑和学习目标导向均低的个体来说,阻断性压力源对工作-家庭冲突的正向影响最强.