2006年石油价格展望

本文对影响2006年石油价格的因素做了系统分析。认为2006年形成油价风险的主要动因已从需求的波动转向供给的波动;2006年油价将由于供求的脆弱平衡维持高位运行的格局,并且,由于供给链中潜在的危机,油价波动性将会非常大;但在全球经济增速下降、石油需求增长放缓、石油生产国家和公司仍然在努力满足市场需求、炼油瓶颈有望缓和的大背景下,油价在2006年按2005年可比价格计不会大幅上升,不会对全球经济产生重大负面影响。     

新城市主义理念对我国小城镇规划与建设的指导意义

小城镇建设是实现城乡一体化的基础,是农村进入新的发展阶段提出的新任务和要求,本文针对目前我国小城镇规划的一些特点,通过新城市主义提倡的"以人为本"、"功能混合"文化传承"等方式和思想,辩证地分析其在小城镇社区规划中的应用,以期为我国小城镇规划设计提供借鉴。     

城市体育健身路径的多元化发展研究

伴随着城市经济的迅速发展,人们生活节奏的加快,城市体育健身运动在人们的生活当中越来越重要。随着社会不断进步和发展,人们从繁重生产劳动中解放出来,利用更多闲暇,积极参加体育锻炼,强身健体、愉悦身心。为更好地满足广大群众体育健身多元化的需求,应结合市民自身的需求,展开城市体育健身路径的多元建设,促进城市体育的快递发展。     

MBA教育品牌策略研究——以上海财经大学商学院为例

我国MBA教育经历了国际化、标准化的发展过程,已进入竞争激烈的白热化发展阶段。创新塑造MBA教育品牌,有利于MBA院校的脱颖而出。本文结合上海财经大学商学院MBA教育品牌建设实践,探讨其在品牌定位、品牌提升及品牌推广等方面的策略经验和实施效果,提出设立精确品牌定位、提高品牌核心竞争力等品牌建设建议,希望能为其他MBA院校在创新品牌策略方面提供一定借鉴。     

城市土地集约利用评价指标体系研究

通过对CNKI数据库中有关城市土地集约利用评价的文献进行统计分析研究,总结层次分析法在城市土地集约利用评价过程中常用的评价指标及指标的权重分布,进一步完善城市土地集约利用评价指标体系。结果表明,文章所给出的评价指标体系是运用综合统计分析的方法构建的,具有很强的实用性,可以为后续城市土地集约利用评价研究提供指标体系的参考。     

中美货币政策协调性的理论与实证研究

本文构建理论模型论证了国际货币政策协调有利于减少各国福利损失,说明了货币政策协调的必要性,而后以中美两国利率政策为例,实证分析了次贷危机前后中美货币政策的联动性.结果表明,中美利率之间存在显著的波动溢出效应;美国利率上升和下降对中美利率协动性的影响具有非对称效应;次贷危机发生以后中美利率联动程度加大,体现出危机后国际货币政策协调性的加强.中美作为世界上有重要影响力的两个国家,其货币政策具有全球意义,因此应加强两国货币政策协调的长效机制,这对于确保全球经济稳步复苏和健康运行有着极为重要的意义.     

股东对创新投入的反应：股权激励异质性的信号作用

以我国2017—2019年沪深两市A股实施股权激励的上市企业为样本,基于股东视角分析股东对创新投入信息的反应,探讨这一反应在股权高度集中时的变化,并考察高管团队股权激励异质性因素向股东传递信号的机制。结果表明,创新投入与股东反应正相关;股权集中度正向调节创新投入与股东反应的关系;股权激励异质性负向调节创新投入与股东反应的关系,且该效应在民企中更加显著;经营风险是股权激励异质性负向影响股东对创新投入反应的中介变量。     

Does the cessation of quarterly earnings guidance reduce investors’ short-termism?

The practice of providing quarterly earnings guidance has been criticized for encouraging investors to fixate on short-term earnings and encouraging managerial myopia. Using data from the post–Regulation Fair Disclosure period, we examine whether the cessation of quarterly earnings guidance reduces short-termism among investors. We show that, after guidance cessation, investors in firms that stop quarterly guidance are composed of a larger (smaller) proportion of long-term (short-term) institutions, put more (less) weight on long-term (short-term) earnings in firm valuation, become more (less) sensitive to analysts’ long-term (short-term) earning forecast revisions, and are less likely to dismiss chief executive officers for missing quarterly earnings targets by small amounts, relative to investors in firms that continue to issue quarterly earnings guidance. Our study provides new evidence of the benefit of stopping quarterly earnings guidance, that is, the reduction of short-termism among investors.     

中国城乡居民收入差距的分解分析

根据来源构成和差距动因两个维度的关联指标推导而成城乡居民收入差距及其成因的双层分解模型,并利用中国1995-2011年时间序列数据进行实证分析,其结果表明产出分配率差异是驱动城乡居民人均收入差距巨大且不断扩张的首要因素,城乡养老转移支付差异扩大、农村“三高”就业人口（高素质、高技能、高收入）加速向城镇迁徙则是城乡居民人均收入差距过大问题加剧的两个放大器,劳动生产率差异是城乡居民人均收入差距过大问题的第三因素,但其所占贡献份额呈现快速缩减趋势。     

Water as an investment: liquid yet illiquid!

The water industry is in great need of further large investments to address existing severe water shortages worldwide which requires the participation of private sector investors. This industry is heavily infrastructure based and is therefore saddled with fixed assets-in-place or illiquid assets. This exposes the industry to what is termed as ‘illiquidity risk’, and hence, investors in this industry should be compensated for bearing this risk with an appropriate return premium (i.e. extra return). In this study, we provide evidence as to whether illiquidity risk indeed significantly affects returns in this industry. We examine the case of all 76 firms that compose the five major global water indices. After controlling for other factors that impact on returns, our results suggest that asset illiquidity is positively associated with stock returns. Specifically, water firms with a larger proportion of illiquid assets-in-place are observed to have greater stock returns than those with a smaller proportion of illiquid assets. Our results have important implications for the financing of water-related projects particularly those which involve the participation of investors from the private sector.