The compilation and application of provisional regional input‐output tables for Southern Africa

Provisional input‐output tables, with certain social accounting matrices, have been compiled for each of the nine currently identified development regions in Southern Africa. This was done using a short‐cut technique. Although the results must be regarded as tentative, a regional comparison of the manufacturlng sector shows that potential employment creation is relatively stronger in the regions that include the peripheral areas. In contrast, potential income generation seems to be more important in the regions containing the core industrial areas.     

A simultaneous model for regional labor supply, incorporating labor force participation, commuting and migration

Simultaneous relations between various components of the regional supply of labor and the situation on the regional labor market are developed. There is a distinction between migration, participation and commuting. Conventional research only devotes attention towards the partial relation between one of these components and the regional labor market situation. However, many decisions people make, involve a simultaneous approach towards participation, commuting and migration. This approach is operationalized at a macro-level by constructing a simultaneous supply model. For the specifications we go back to standard literature. In each of the equations, apart from variables that are specific for the particular function, special attention is given to the interrelation between the three supply variables. An overall simultaneity is described by a fourth endogenous variable: unemployment; this variable is explained by employment, participation, netmigration and netcommuting. A combined time-series/cross-section-analysis is used to estimate the model.

Surprisingly it appears that in comparison with OLS parameter- and t-values of the supply-equations are not affected by the use of simultaneous estimation techniques. Only for the unemployment-equation there are significant changes.     

Economic status of france: Past,present, and future

Conclusion To conclude, France may be only seventh or eighth in terms of manufacturing GDP per head and ninth or tenth in terms of GDP per head. This is, after all, not bad and certainly it is not bad if one compares France with the developing world. But such measurements are, in any case, only in terms of national accounting figures. I am sure life is much better in France than in the few countries which are ahead of it in those accounting terms. Maybe France is only seventh or eighth because it has to pay for all those other good aspects of life. Other interpretations would be that it is only seventh or eighth because the French people enjoy too much those good aspects, or even because they choose not to be too competitive with respect to the other countries. One of my colleagues used to say that if we French were to work as much as the Japanese do, we would be excessively competitive...and we do not want to harm the other countries. Invited Address at the Thirty-Third International Atlantic Economic Conference, April 4–10, 1992, French Riviera.     

Regression with errors in variables: estimators based on third order moments

In this paper consistent and, in a well–defined sense, optimal moment–estimators of the regression coefficient in a simple regression model with errors in variables are derived. The asymptotic variance and other asymptotic properties of these estimators are given. As is known for a long time, serious estimation problems exist in this model. There are two ways out of this problem: using either additional assumptions or additional information in the data. A lot of attention has been paid to the use of additional assumptions. However, quite often this leads to rather unrealistic models. In this paper we use additional information in the data. That means here that, besides first and second order moments, third order moments are formulated as functions of the model parameters. Besides theoretical derivations a small study with generated data is discussed. This study shows that for samples larger than 50 the estimates we consider behave nicely.     

Development management regions in South Africa: An empirical evaluation

In this study an attempt has been made to evaluate the validity of the boundaries of the officially approved ‘development regions’ of South Africa. A variety of statistical methods were used for the evaluation of the empirical validity of the boundaries of these regions. Firstly, two sets of homogeneous regions based on different sets of parameters were delimited. Secondly, two sets of regions indicating areas of different levels of economic development were determined. With the aid of this information, some changes in the boundaries of the existing regions are suggested. A historical account of attempts at regionalisation in South Africa for development management purposes is also given. A semantic assessment of definitions points to the need for a change in the use of the term ‘development region’ — for this specific purpose — to the term ‘development management region’.     

Long-term development credits and socialist trade

Zusammenfassung Langfristige Entwicklungskredite und sozialistischer Au\enhandel. —Die chronischen Ungleichgewichte auf dem Comecon-Markt haben unter anderem zu betr?chtlichen langfristigen Kreditstrómen für genau bezeichnete Zwecke (long-term credits for well-defined purposes, abgek. CWDP) unter den Comecon-Mitgliedern geführt. Sozialistische Kommentare haben diese Transaktionen als nützlich für alle beteiligten Partner erkl?rt, ohne die Bedingungen für die Wirksamkeit und Nützlichkeit dieser Abmachungen n?her zu untersuchen. Darüber hinaus mu\ die sozialistische Interpretation dieser Kredite als langfristige L?sung der Ungleichgewichte als au\erordentlich kurzsichtig bezeichnet werden; CWDP-Kredite lassen die okonomischen Ursachen dieser schwierigen Entwicklungsprobleme unberührt. Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht die wichtigsten Ursachen der Ungleichgewichte und die besonderen Umst?nde der Kreditabkommen (Abschnitt I). Eine der seltenen kritischen überprüfungen durch M. Tardos stellte die heilsamen Wirkungen dieser Kredite in Frage, aber die Analyse zog aufkl?rende Schlu\folgerungen aus unzureichend und ungenau dargestellten Bedingungen. Abschnitt II enth?lt eine verbesserte und erweiterte Darstellung des Problems von Tardos. Der au\erordentlich niedrige Zinssatz für Kredite zwischen Comecon-L?ndern (Intra-CMEA-Kredite) liefert auf den ersten Blick den Beweis für eine Benachteiligung der Kreditgeber. Abschnitt III prüft die wichtigsten relevanten Grundzüge der Intra-CMEA-Kredittransaktionen und führt zu einer vorsichtigeren Bewertung der Kosten und Vorteile. Im Abschnitt IV werden schlie\lich das Problem der Ausdehnung gebundener Kredite im allgemeinen und die Frage der Vor- und Nachteile für die direkt am Comecon beteiligten L?nder ebenso wie für die Drittl?nder im besonderen erortert. Im Anhang werden die wichtigsten bekannt gewordenen Kredite und, soweit als m?glich, auch Einzelheiten über die Bedingungen der Abmachungen zusammengestellt.

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Résumé Crédits de développement à long terme et commerce extérieur socialiste. — Les déséquilibres chroniques dans le marché CAEM ont amené, entre autres, des flots remarquables de crédits à long terme pour fins bien définis (longterm credits for well-defined purposes = CWDP) entre membres du marché CAEM. Les commentaires socialistes ont considéré ces transactions avantageuses pour tous les interéssés, mais sans avoir examiné bien profondément leurs conditions d’efficacité et d’utilité. D’ailleurs, l’interprétation socialiste de ces crédits comme solution durable des déséquilibres manque, évidemment, de discernement. Les crédits CWDP ne remédient pas aux causes économiques de ces problèmes de développement bien compliqués. L’article que voici met au jour les causes les plus importantes des déséquilibres et les circonstances spéciales des accords de crédit (section I). Il est vrai qu’une étude critique rare de M. Tardos a mis en question les effets avantageux de ces crédits, mais son analyse appliqua un raisonnement clair à des conditions insuffisamment et inexactement exprimées. Section II présente une correction et une extension des problèmes de Tardos. Le taux d’intérêt extrémement bas pour les crédits entre membres du CAEM est une preuveprima facie de ce qu’il y a désavantage aux créditeurs. Section III examine les traits les plus importants des accords intra-CAEM de crédit, ce qui permet une évaluation mieux considérée des co?ts et des bénéfices. Section IV, enfin, examine la question générale des crédits fixés et s’occupe du problème des co?ts et bénéfices pour les pays qui ont part aux crédits CWDP, aussi bien que pour des tiers. Dans un appendice, une liste des crédits les plus importants qu’on conna?t est donnée avec des détails — si disponibles — des conditions des accords.

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Resumen Créditos de desarrollo a largo plazo y comercio exterior de los países socialistas. — Los desequilibrios crónicos en el mercado del COMECON han dado lugar a importantes corrientes de créditos a largo plazo para usos exactamente definidos (long-term credits for well-defined purposes = CWDP) entre los países miembros. Los comentaristas socialistas subrayan las ventajas que estas transacciones tienen para todos los países, pero no analizan los condicionantes de la eficacia y utilidad de las mismas. Además, esperar de estos créditos una solución duradera de los desequilibrios es mostrar poca perspicacia; pues los créditos CWDP no afectan a las causas económicas de estos difíciles problemas de desarrollo. El presente artículo comienza por estudiar las principales causas de los desequilibrios y las circunstancias especiales bajo las que se llegó a estos acuerdos crediticios. Es cierto que uno de los pocos análisis críticos existentes, de M. Tardos, puso en duda los efectos útiles de estos créditos, pero las conclusiones se basaban en condiciones insuficientes e inexactas. Por ello, la segunda parte del artículo contiene una presentación revisada y ampliada del problema de Tardos. El tipo de interés extraordinariamente bajo para créditos entre países miembros del COMECON demuestra que estas transacciones perjudican a los países donantes. En la tercera parte se analizan las características más importantes de dichas transacciones y se intenta una evaluación de costes y beneficios. Finalmente, en la cuarta parte, el autor discute el problema de la ampliación de creditos sujetos a un uso determinado en general, así como la cuestión de las ventajas y desventajas para los países miembros del COMECON y terceros países en particular. El anexo contiene los principales créditos conocidos y, donde es posible, los pormenores de los acuerdos correspondientes.

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Riassunto Crediti per lo sviluppo a lungo termine e commercio estero socialista. — I cronici squilibri sul mercato del Comecon hanno condotto tra i soci del Comecon, tra l’altro, a considerevoli correnti di credito a lungo termine per scopi ben definiti (long-term credits for well-defined purposes, abbrev. CWDP). Commenti socialisti hanno dichiarato utili queste transazioni per i soci partecipanti senza esaminare più da vicino le condizioni per l’efficacia e l’utilità di questi accordi. Inoltre l’interpretazione socialista di questi crediti come soluzione a lungo termine degli squilibri deve essere definita straordinariamente miope; CWDP-crediti lasciano intatte le cause economiche di questi difficili problemi di sviluppo. Il presente contributo esamina le cause più importanti degli squilibri e le condizioni particolari degli accordi di credito (capitolo I). Una delle rare verifiche critiche condotta da M. Tardos pose in dubbio gli effetti benefici di questi crediti, ma l’analisi tirò illuminanti conseguenze da condizioni insufficienti e non esattamente rappresentate. I1 capitolo II contiene un’esposizione ampliata e migliorata del problema di Tardos. Il tasso d’interesse per crediti straordinariamente basso tra i Paesi del Comecon (Intra-CMEA-crediti) fornisce a prima vista la prova di uno svantaggio per il sovventore. I1 capitolo III esamina le più importanti e rilevanti caratteristiche delle Intra-CMEA-transazioni di credito e conduce ad una più cauta valutazione dei costi e vantaggi. Nel capitolo IV infine sono discussi il problema dei crediti vincolati in generale e la questione degli svantaggi e vantaggi per i Paesi direttamente partecipanti al Comecon altrettanto come per i Paesi terzi. In appendice sono raccolti i crediti più importanti divenuti noti e, per quanto possibile, anche particolari sulle condizioni degli accordi.

     

A macroeconomic two-country model with price-discriminating monopolists

I am indebted to J. Frijns, R. de Groof, S. Kuipers, F. van der Ploeg, V. Okker, A. van Schaik and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer of course applies.