A macroeconomic two-country model with price-discriminating monopolists

I am indebted to J. Frijns, R. de Groof, S. Kuipers, F. van der Ploeg, V. Okker, A. van Schaik and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer of course applies.     

The sociologist as social architect: A new task for macro-sociology?

The theme of voluntarism and determinism is revisited, here in the context of forecasting for futurists. Although fraught with danger the use of scenarios is vital in a world of rapid change, in which people are more than ever aware of the choices open to them and the ways they are able to determine their own future. The author proposes that a merger between the approaches of the sociologist and the futurist could aid our understanding of social futures. The outcome is a ‘design sociology’ based on six key concepts.     

Evidence on the internal labor market during a process of rapid economic growth

We examine the nature and extent of labor market segmentation in Brazil through a survey of 82 modern sector firms in São Paulo. Hiring, training and promotion patterns are found to differ significantly between occupations and a key to understanding these patterns is the nature of skill acquisition, particularly ‘learning on the job’. Furthermore the presence of skill- specificity and internal labor markets for supervisory personnel provide a possible explanation for why relative wages have widened during Brazil's period of rapid economic growth.     

The mini farmer approach: A case study of the South African tea industry

This article analyses the concept of mini farming on tea estates in South Africa from the point of view of the farmer and the estate. Although mint farmers who participate in these schemes are subjected to strict controls, they enjoy more freedom than labourers. The article shows the relative merit of the mini farming concept in the tea industry, and thereby contributes to the current debate on agricultural restructuring in South Africa.     

A note on tariffs,quotas and the Metzler Paradox: An alternative approach

Conclusions Under the given assumptions, the introduction of an import quota always results in a price increase of the scarce factor. This conclusion confirms that of Falvey [1975] that the Metzler Paradox cannot occur with import quotas. Moreover, we have shown this to be true regardless of the new terms of trade. The introduction of an import quota will, in general, lead to a lower welfare level. This holds for non-prohibitive protection in those situations in which the terms of trade either remain unchanged or worsen. If the terms of trade improve, a higher welfare level can be attained depending on the degree of the improvement and on the size of the quota. The development of the terms of trade can be used as an indication of the price increase of the scarce factor. The more favourable the new terms of trade for the trade restricting country, the greater the advantage accruing to the scarce factor. The effectiveness of the protective measures for distributional purposes coincides thus with the development of the terms of trade.     

Further experience in Bayesian analysis using Monte Carlo integration

An earlier paper [Kloek and Van Dijk (1978)] is extended in three ways. First, Monte Carlo integration is performed in a nine-dimensional parameter space of Klein's model I [Klein (1950)]. Second, Monte Carlo is used as a tool for the elicitation of a uniform prior on a finite region by making use of several types of prior information. Third, special attention is given to procedures for the construction of importance functions which make use of nonlinear optimization methods.