Improved estimation of portfolio value‐at‐risk under copula models with mixed marginals

Portfolio value‐at‐risk (PVAR) is widely used in practice, but recent criticisms have focused on risks arising from biased PVAR estimates due to model specification errors and other problems. The PVAR estimation method proposed in this article combines generalized Pareto distribution tails with the empirical density function to model the marginal distributions for each asset in the portfolio, and a copula model is used to form a joint distribution from the fitted marginals. The copula–mixed distribution (CMX) approach converges in probability to the true marginal return distribution but is based on weaker assumptions that may be appropriate for the returns data found in practice. CMX is used to estimate the joint distribution of log returns for the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE) index and the associated futures contracts on SGX and TAIFEX. The PVAR estimates for various hedge portfolios are computed from the fitted CMX model, and backtesting diagnostics indicate that CMX outperforms the alternative PVAR estimators. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:997–1018, 2006     

劳动合同法实施对民营企业劳动关系的影响

规范劳动合同,是合理配置劳动力资源,稳定劳动关系,促进社会生产力永续健康发展的重要手段。《劳动合同法》颁布前,由于劳动法及相关的法律规章规定得过于原则,劳动合同制度落实得并不理想,尤其是民营企业存在不少问题。即将生效实施的《劳动合同法》,强化了书面劳动合同形式,扩大了无固定期限劳动合同及经济补偿金的适用,增加了许多法律责任的规定,必将对民营企业劳动关系发挥重大影响,促进稳定规范和谐劳动关系的建立,有力推动和谐社会的建设。     

2001年世界新造船市场回顾及2002年展望

2001年世界宏观经济形势较2000年发生了急剧的变化,美欧日等主要发达国家的经济增长同时减速。根据国际货币基金组织的数据,2001年世界经济增长率仅为2.4％,大大低于2000年的4.7％。作为世界经济火车头的美国经济在2001年下半年     

实施低成本扩张战略的案例分析

低成本扩张战略是企业快速发展壮大的一种重要途径。近年来,随着国内经济的快速发展,能源和资源供求矛盾不断突出,各地政府承担的节能减排压力日益增加,迫切要求在保护环境的前提下,扩大能源和资源的供给量,缓解供需矛盾。通过运用五种力量模型、SWOT模型、现金流量分析等方法,对热锗联产和延迟焦化两个项目进行全方位分析和综合评估,可以看出,延迟焦化项目内外部环境比较有利于项目的实施,其优势明显大于劣势,机遇大于威胁,项目实施可行性较强。     

完善《国家赔偿法》的几点思考

1995年我国《国家赔偿法》的正式实施,标志着我国国家赔偿制度的正式建立。这不仅顺应了世界历史发展的潮流,也是我国社会主义民主与法制建设发展道路上的一个重要里程碑。然而,伴随着我国经济社会生活的发展和变迁,这部法律,已经越来越落后于国家目前的社会状况。要对《国家赔偿法》存在的缺失与不足进行深入分析,要在扩大赔偿范围,扩展公民权利受保护的广度;提高赔偿标准;采用多种归责原则;简化现有的赔偿程序;设立专门的国家赔偿裁判机构等方面加以改进。     

运用Logistic回归模型加强高收入者纳税遵从的实证研究

加强高收入者的个人所得税征管、促进纳税遵从一直是税务部门的重要工作之一。利用多元有序因变量Logistic回归模型,以江苏某市2010年度年所得12万元以上个人所得税纳税申报的数据为样本,以＂应补税额＂等级的五分类有序变量为因变量,以纳税申报表中纳税人的年龄、应纳税所得额、应纳税额、性别、职业大类、行业大类6个影响因素为自变量,进行多元有序因变量的Logistic回归分析,研究结果可为税务系统加强年所得12万元以上高收入者个人所得税的申报与征管、促进纳税遵从提供新的思路。     

中美两国最新年度预约定价安排报告对比

本文首先简单介绍了中国和美国于2012年4月先后发布的最新年度预约定价安排报告的概况,其后根据报告的内容,对比了两国在预约定价安排工作流程和有关统计数据方面的情况,最后总结了两国最新预约定价安排年度报告的看点和亮点。     

Exploring the mediating role of utilitarian value and hedonic value in the formation of oppositional loyalty in online communities

Our research expands the scope of the research on oppositional loyalty from brands to online communities. Online communities allow members to freely express their opinions and promote the occurrence of oppositional loyalty behaviours towards the communities. Oppositional loyalty is defined in this article that, for the purpose of strengthening the market position of their preferred community, members of the online community may express negative views or even show oppositional behaviour towards adversarial communities. In view of social capital theory, the study examines the effect of hedonic value and utilitarian value on oppositional loyalty in online communities. The results show that only hedonic value significantly affects oppositional loyalty; hedonic value mediates the effect of the three dimensions of social capital (network ties, identification, and common language) on oppositional loyalty. The study identifies that community type moderates the impact of social capital (identification and common language) on hedonic value but does not moderate the effect of social capital on utilitarian value. Finally, we find that members' oppositional loyalty towards their community can promote their community participation. This research provides recommendations for online community managers to manage and benefit from members' oppositional loyalty.