Modelling with scenarios: Technology in North-South development

This article outlines work in progress on a study of technological choice in the context of North-South development. Its main purpose is to describe the methodology being developed in the pilot phase of the study. This is of interest because it links together a number of analytic techniques—sociopolitical scenario analysis, macroeconomic modelling, and certain microstudies. The methodological problems are general to much forecasting activity.     

9. An evaluation of the world models

After summarising the findings of chapters 2–8, exercises which demonstrate shortcomings in the general structure of the world models are described. Alterations to the World 3 model, suggested in chapters 3–8, are tested, and comments are made on the results and on world models in general.     

Development,distribution and the future

The distribution of world output between countries, and between social groups within countries, is central to long-term development prospects. Unequal shares mean unequal influence over the future direction of world affairs. The level and structure of demand are conditioned by the distribution of financial resources; while the power to influence the course of development is itself tied to the resources that can be marshalled in support of one's objectives. Two forecasting techniques, scenario construction and global modelling, are used to assess these relationships and explore the consequences of one possible ‘future history’ in which distribution worldwide does eventually begin to improve. Striking limitations to most development strategies are identified; without a wide-ranging set of changes, the prospects for improved distribution—and relief of poverty—are bleak.     

Broadening the Concept of International Entrepreneurship: Internationalisation, Networks and Politics

In this article, the situation where a company internationalises over an extended period without changing operation mode is explored. The focus of the empirical research is the Australian company CSR and its large-scale sugar exporting operations, which developed over a period of about 75 years. Because of the highly politicised nature of the sugar industry in many countries, CSR was called upon to make extensive investments in political networks in order to achieve its global sugar exporting operations. Overall the CSR experience demonstrates that it is possible to stretch the use of a given mode, although this may demand considerable creativity in market, network and policy responses of a kind which illustrate that international entrepreneurship may come in many guises, and may need to be viewed in a broader way.     

An Empirical Study of Environmental Awareness and Practices in SMEs

With increasing awareness of environmental issues, there has been rising demand for environmental-friendly business practices. Prior research has shown that the implementation of environmental management practices is influenced by existing and potential stakeholder groups in the form of external pressures from legislators, environmental groups, financial institutions and suppliers, as well as internally by employees and owner/manager attitudes and knowledge. However, it has been reported that despite business owner/managers having strong “green” attitudes, the level of implementation of environmental-friendly practices is low. In order to explore the connection between pressures for improved practices and the management actions taken, this article examines how influence from various stakeholders is related to awareness of environmental issues, and how this awareness relates to actions taken within the businesses to reduce the environmental impact of their operations. The results indicate that legislation does result in general environmental awareness, and that organizations are then willing to␣change their business processes and environmental strategies. However, despite their actions they have little awareness of the benefits that might arise from cost reductions from their environmental-friendly practices. Those influenced by their suppliers act to reduce waste, but do not put into place formal environmental management systems, or use environmental messages to market their goods or services. Nevertheless, it can be argued that they have a real commitment to environmental issues, as evidenced by a willingness to voluntarily contribute to environmental organizations.     

Content aggregation by platforms: The case of the news media

The digitization of content has led to the emergence of platforms that draw information from multiple sources. This paper investigates whether aggregation of content by a single platform encourages users to “skim” content or to investigate it in depth. We study a contract dispute that led a major aggregator to remove information from a major content provider. After the removal, users were less likely to investigate additional, related content in depth, particularly sources that were horizontally or vertically differentiated.     

Approximate maximum likelihood estimation for stochastic differential equations with random effects in the drift and the diffusion

Consider N independent stochastic processes \((X_i(t), t\in [0,T])\), \(i=1,\ldots , N\), defined by a stochastic differential equation with random effects where the drift term depends linearly on a random vector \(\Phi _i\) and the diffusion coefficient depends on another linear random effect \(\Psi _i\). For these effects, we consider a joint parametric distribution. We propose and study two approximate likelihoods for estimating the parameters of this joint distribution based on discrete observations of the processes on a fixed time interval. Consistent and \(\sqrt{N}\)-asymptotically Gaussian estimators are obtained when both the number of individuals and the number of observations per individual tend to infinity. The estimation methods are investigated on simulated data and show good performances.     

Order imbalance and stock returns: Evidence from China

We investigate the relation between daily order imbalance and return in the Chinese stock markets of Shenzhen and Shanghai. Prior studies have found that daily order imbalance is predictive of subsequent returns. On the two Chinese exchanges we find the autocorrelation in order imbalances is similar to that of the New York Stock Exchange as reported by Chordia and Subrahmanyam [Chordia, T., & Subrahmanyam, A. (2004). Order imbalance and individual stock returns: Theory and evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 72, 485–518]. We also find a strong contemporaneous relation between daily order imbalances and returns. However, we do not find evidence that order imbalances predict subsequent returns. We attribute the difference in predicative power to differences in trading mechanisms on the two exchanges and to differences in the share turnover rates.