Immigration and Informal Labor

We develop state‐level proxies for informal employment using differences between measures of self‐reported employment and officially sanctioned employment. In construction and landscaping, industries associated with under‐the‐table labor, we develop proxies for informal work based on productivity per officially sanctioned worker. We relate each set of proxies for informal employment to changes in immigrant population and composition. We find some evidence that immigration is associated with informal employment generally and in the construction industry when prevailing wages are low. States with high concentrations of low‐skilled male immigrants have higher levels of informal employment in the landscaping industry.     

Population Ageing and House Prices in Australia

This article assesses the effect of population ageing on housing consumption and house prices. Using two approaches, this article finds that the ageing of the population may cause average real house prices to be between 3 and 27 per cent lower than they otherwise would be over the period 2008–2050. The first approach is an econometric estimation of house prices for Australia over the period 1980–2008. The second approach is a simulation of a life cycle‐optimising model with representative overlapping generations.     

An information-based theory of international currency

This paper develops an information-based theory of international currency based on search frictions, private trading histories, and imperfect recognizability of assets. Using an open-economy search model with multiple competing currencies, the value of each currency is determined without requiring agents to use a particular currency to purchase a country's goods. Strategic complementarities in portfolio choices and information acquisition decisions generate multiple equilibria with different types of payment arrangements. While some inflation can benefit the country issuing an international currency, the threat of losing international status puts an inflation discipline on the issuing country. When monetary authorities interact in a simple policy game, the temptation to inflate can lead optimal policy to deviate from the Friedman rule. The calibrated model can produce a welfare cost of losing international status for the issuing country larger than previous findings, though estimates depend critically on inflation rates and information costs.     

Asymmetrical reaction to US stock-return news: evidence from major stock markets based on a double-threshold model

This paper examines the hypothesis that both stock returns and volatility are asymmetrical functions of past information from the US market. By employing a double-threshold GARCH model to investigate six major index-return series, we find strong evidence supporting the asymmetrical hypothesis of stock returns. Specifically, negative news from the US market will cause a larger decline in a national stock return than an equal magnitude of good news. This holds true for the volatility series. The variance appears to be more volatile when bad news impacts the market than when good news does.     

Community-based programmes to promote use of bicycle helmets in children aged 0-14 years: a systematic review

Hospital-based research has shown that wearing a helmet reduces the risk of head injury in bicycle riders. These studies have provided the impetus for community-wide interventions to increase the numbers of cyclists who wear helmets; however, the effectiveness of such programmes is undetermined. This study employs extensive search strategies to review the scientific literature to establish the effectiveness of community-wide programmes to increase helmet use among cyclists. Thirteen community-wide intervention studies using substantive methodologies were located in 16 published papers. The community-wide interventions include mandating helmet wearing, education campaigns, distribution of free or subsidized helmets or, more frequently, combinations of all of these methods of influence. All studies reported success in influencing helmet wearing across communities. However, none of the studies reveals enough detail of the mix or techniques employed in the interventions to replicate the interventions. While it is encouraging that all of the studies showed positive results, the way forward for further implementation of helmet wearing is for adequate documentation of successful interventions.     

Results of the first survey of independent trust grantmaking: who is setting the agenda?

Based on an analysis of 2,300 grants made by a representative sample of independent trusts and foundations, ‘Patterns of Independent Grantmaking in the UK’ is the first national survey identifying where independent trusts allocate their funds. The results show that, as in mainstream central and local government expenditure, social care was a clear priority for independent grantmakers, not only attracting the highest proportion of grants overall, but also the single largest proportion of funding, £233m. This figure equals just over one‐third of local authority support for social services in the voluntary sector and indicates that the collective impact of independent funding to the sector is significant. Social care funding consisted mainly of a large number of small to medium‐sized grants. Health was the second largest area, followed by education and the arts. There was a considerable regional imbalance in funding. Given this fairly conservative pattern of funding, the question arises whether funders are led by applicants or vice versa? What is needed to introduce more change and risk into trust funding? Copyright © 2000 Henry Stewart Publications.     

The Changing External Exposure of Australian Industry

This article examines changes in trade‐related external exposure for Australian industry from 1990–91 to 2000–01, using primary and composite measures that capture the effects of exports, imports and imported inputs. The primary measures show that export market share for all exporting industries increased, but import market share increased at an equal or greater rate both overall and in most industries. Input value import shares also increased across virtually all industries. Two composite measures are calculated, the Index of Effective Exposure (IEE) and an extended IEE incorporating import market shares. The extended IEE shows that the net external exposure of Australian industry has been increasing over the decade, particularly in the Manufacturing and Mining Divisions. The net exposure of Australian manufacturing industries is lower than expected compared to the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Japan, but the rankings of manufacturing industries in each country are similar and becoming more so.