A note on odds in the cattle futures market

This paper investigates the odds of generating a 100-fold return in the cattle futures market. We employ cattle futures data for the period October 11, 1978, through July 31, 1979, to compute the probability of obtaining such a return. The tests are constructed to give the investor the benefit of the doubt whenever doubt exists. The most conservative finding is that the probability is one in approximately thirty-one trillion. Assuming that the return is made in the most efficient way possible, this probability falls to approximately 1.5×10⁻¹⁶.     

Open data in Nepal: a webometric network analysis

This study examines the current open data trends in Nepal based on the webometric analysis method by using search engines to trawl through websites and obtain data. The results indicate that various national and international nonprofit organizations, public sector organizations, educational institutions , and a few commercial organizations were the initial actors fostering open data in Nepal. Therefore, these organizations were analyzed in terms of their networking patterns and the extent to which they are exposed internationally in cyberspace by using Webometric Analyst 2.0. Inter-linkage analysis, co-mention analysis, and link impact analyses were conducted to explore the networking behavior in the World Wide Web. The results revealed that international organizations (IOs) were strongly interlinked. Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), government organizations (GOs), and IOs were interlinked, but weakly. In terms of the co-mention network analysis, IOs with IOs were more significant than NGOs with NGOs, GOs, or business organizations because IOs had been working actively for many years, their web presence was high, and they worked in other fields, including open data. A link impact analysis was also conducted using its indicators of seed sites linked to external websites in terms of the estimated number of top-level domains and country-code top-level domains.     

On the estimation of returns to scale, technical progress and monopolistic markups

A number of theoretical results on estimating returns to scale, technical progress and monopolistic markups are derived when there are multiple outputs and inputs. The choice of value added versus gross output and problems that arise in aggregation across sectors of an economy are also considered. Using US data on manufacturing, evidence is found of increasing returns to scale across all levels of aggregation. Technical progress is typically found to be insignificant implying that economic growth has been driven by increasing returns to scale rather than technical progress. Such findings have important implications for the macroeconomic modeling of economic fluctuations.     

Optimising a Probabilistic Model of the Development of Play in Soccer

We present a probabilistic model based on the one developed by Hernández Mendo and Anguera (Revista de Psicologíca Social, 16(1), 71–93, 2001). Here we have tried to break down the interaction contexts that the opposing teams are able to generate and transform during the game. We are aware that a given player or team does not produce consistent behaviour in similar situations. However, a degree of uncertainty is assumed to exist regarding whether the results obtained are a specific function of the analysis used. In order to carry out this research a category system which optimized that used in the previous model was developed. This system should enable the interaction between teams to be observed within the actual play of a soccer game. A lag sequential analysis was performed on the basis of a coding of the behavioural flow. After describing the behavioural patterns obtained a probabilistic model of the development of play in soccer is proposed.     

Test of the MBA knowledge and skills transfer

In view of the growing popularity of the MBA degree as a management development tool, there is a need to examine knowledge and skills transfer among MBA graduates. This study then developed and tested a parsimonious model of perceived transfer of knowledge and skills of MBA graduates to the job. Respondents were those who had completed part-time MBA programmes in Hong Kong for at least one year but not more than five years. LISREL results revealed a modest fit of the model to the data. The path coefficients further revealed that seven of the fifteen predicted relationships were statistically significant and in the predicted direction. Specifically, self-efficacy, Type A personality, transfer climate, and transfer rewards were positively related to motivation to learn, while organizational commitment was negatively related to motivation to learn. The results also indicated that motivation to learn, continuous-learning culture, and utility of MBA programme were positively related to perceived knowledge and skills transfer.