Dangers of commitment under rational expectations

Within a New Keynesian framework, interest rate rules that respond to public expectations lead to determinate and expectationally stable solutions for any level of commitment, as shown by Waters (Macroecon Dyn 13(4):421–449, 2009). That paper also demonstrates gains to commitment, under least square learning, though over-commitment can lead to some very poor outcomes for some parameter values. This paper shows an identical outcome under rational expectations. The optimal level of commitment is unchanged if there are observation errors in the policymaker’s knowledge of public expectations, which is not the case under learning. However, if there is sufficient policymaker uncertainty about the parameter values, partial commitment is best.     

Relevant coherent measures of risk

We introduce and study the _f0$f_0$-relevance property of a coherent measure of risk on a positions vector space with vector ordering. We show that it is equivalent to a special no arbitrage condition on bounded positions spaces. Continuity from below leads to representations of _f0$f_0$-relevant coherent measures of risk based on equivalent functionals in Banach subspaces of the order dual. We define and describe _f0$f_0$-martingales in a lattice, and present a solution to the hedging price problem: the asset price process is an order convergent _f0$f_0$-martingale. Under the _f0$f_0$-relevance hypothesis we study the relationship between worst conditional mean and value at risk.     

Are hyperinflation paths learnable?

Earlier studies of the seigniorage inflation model have found that the high-inflation steady state is not stable under learning. We reconsider this issue and analyze the full set of solutions for the linearized model. Our main focus is on stationary hyperinflationary paths near the high-inflation steady state. These paths are shown to be stable under least-squares learning if agents can utilize contemporaneous data. In an economy with a mixture of agents, some of whom only have access to lagged data, stable hyperinflationary paths emerge only if the proportion of agents with access to contemporaneous data is sufficiently high.     

Technical Progress and Product Reliability under Competition and Monopoly

Technical progress lowers costs and prices but appears to have an ambiguous effect on product reliability. This paper presents a simple model which explains this observation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adaptive forecasting in the presence of recent and ongoing structural change

We consider time series forecasting in the presence of ongoing structural change where both the time series dependence and the nature of the structural change are unknown. Methods that downweight older data, such as rolling regressions, forecast averaging over different windows and exponentially weighted moving averages, known to be robust to historical structural change, are found also to be useful in the presence of ongoing structural change in the forecast period. A crucial issue is how to select the degree of downweighting, usually defined by an arbitrary tuning parameter. We make this choice data-dependent by minimising the forecast mean square error, and provide a detailed theoretical analysis of our proposal. Monte Carlo results illustrate the methods. We examine their performance on 97 US macro series. Forecasts using data-based tuning of the data discount rate are shown to perform well.     

Roles of chairs in entrepreneurship: What deans expect

Major donations, especially for endowed chairs, put Colleges of Business and Universities in the spotlight and create a great deal of excitement, highlighting the important role that educational institutions play in benefiting the students, the community, and society in general. This kind of excitement needs to be sustained over time, signifying the link that the endowed Chair or Professorship in Entrepreneurship creates between the past, the present, and the future. Consequently, there is a need for a long-term personal connection and close relationship between the donor, the faculty holding the endowed chair, and the institution represented by the Dean that should be preserved over time. This study reports findings of a survey of the perceptions of AACSB Deans on what an Endowed Chair in Entrepreneurship is, and what it could, and should mean for their institution.     

Nonlinear models for strongly dependent processes with financial applications

This paper is motivated by recent evidence that many univariate economic and financial time series have both nonlinear and long memory characteristics. Hence, this paper considers a general nonlinear, smooth transition regime autoregression which is embedded within a strongly dependent, long memory process. A time domain MLE$MLE$ with simultaneous estimation of the long memory, linear AR$AR$ and nonlinear parameters is shown to have desirable asymptotic properties. The Bayesian and Hannan–Quinn information criteria are shown to provide consistent model selection procedures. The paper also considers an alternative two step estimator where the original time series is fractionally filtered from an initial semi-parametric estimate of the long memory parameter. Simulation evidence indicates that the time domain MLE$MLE$ is generally superior to the two step estimator. The paper also includes some applications of the methodology and estimation of a fractionally integrated, nonlinear autoregressive-ESTAR$ESTAR$ model to forward premium and real exchange rates.     

The Market Performance of Socially Responsible Investment during Periods of the Economic Cycle – Illustrated Using the Case of FTSE

The debate about socially responsible investment (SRI) portfolio performance compared with its non‐SRI counterparts remains inconclusive. This paper contributes to the debate by adding a new approach, examining the issue of a full economic circle through economic boom, recession and recovery. We compare stock performance of two value‐weighted investment portfolios: FTSE4Good (SRI portfolios) and FTSE 350 (conventional portfolios) from 2004 to 2011 including 2007 to 2009 financial crash. The results indicate the SRI portfolio performed better and recovered its value quicker in post‐crisis than the non‐SRI portfolio, indicating that SRI portfolios are more resilient to economic turmoil and market shocks. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Attention to Fairness versus Profits: The Determinants of Satisficing Pricing

We investigate determinants of the competitive behaviour of satisficing, non‐profit‐maximizing pricing. Taking a behavioural approach, we argue that pricing decisions are motivated by fairness objectives as well as the desire to achieve economic objectives. We draw from the attention‐based view to build our theoretical model explaining the contextual conditions that are most likely to be associated with attention to fairness relative to attention to achieving maximum profits when setting prices. Our hypothesized predictors of satisficing pricing decisions encompass the institutional context in which the firm is embedded, the exchange context with customers and suppliers, and the context internal to the firm. Hypotheses are tested with survey data of over 3000 firms from 15 countries. We find that the decision to set prices at a satisficing level is remarkably common, and its prevalence is associated with contextual factors that are consistent with greater attention to fairness concerns.     

Model misspecification effects for biased samples

The model misspecification effects on the maximum likelihood estimator are studied when a biased sample is treated as a random one as well as when a random sample is treated as a biased one. The relation between the existence of a consistent estimator under model misspecification and the completeness of the distribution is also considered. The cases of the weight invariant distribution and the scale parameter distribution are examined and finally an example is presented to illustrate the results.