市场估值与价值投资策略——基于中国证券市场的经验研究

中国股票市场近年开始重新重视价值投资,但真正能运用价值投资策略进行投资的并不多见。本文研究在我国的证券市场中,价值投资是否适用和有效,通过实证分析的方法,检验价值投资策略在中国证券市场的适应性。本文的结论有助于逐渐改变目前中国证券市场上中小投资者跟风炒作、希望在短期内获得高额回报的投机理念和过度炒作的现象,对于提倡理性投资,抑制过度投机是非常有益的。     

Comparing Firm Failure Predictions Between Logit,KMV, and ZPP Models: Evidence from Taiwan’s Electronics Industry

This paper applies the Taiwan electronics industry data to detect the discriminatory powers of Logit, KMV, and zero-price probability (ZPP) models that represent respectively the regressive fitting model, the option-based pricing model, and the GARCH time series simulation model. In our circumstances, according to cumulative accuracy profile, receiver operating characteristic, and even Brier score, the KMV performs the worst. The disadvantages for KMV are that the equity market exists some nonlinear characteristics, the unknown market value of asset affected by the change of capital structure is not exogenous, and the failure point is difficult to be estimated correctly. Besides, KMV is however too simple to model the fluctuation of the equity value as the GARCH does. On the other hand, the Logit performs above average. To preclude over-fitting and keep model parsimonious, two significant factors are extracted from as many as forty financial variables for the logistic regression on binary failure data. The result of Logit training has perfect discrimination. However, for the post-sample data, the fitting to categorical but not ordinal data makes Logit have the divergent failure predicted probabilities and highest Briser Score. In practical, ZPP GARCHNorm uses just equity value to predict firm failure but it performs remarkably well supposing that downward price trend or volatility persistence in stock price changes is appropriately caught. It implies that the distorted signals such as overreaction of traders and insider trading would definitely impair the ZPP GARCHNorm. Nevertheless, the larger type I error than type II error in all models indicates that the prediction of non-failed firms should be more examined further than that of failed firms.     

Joint estimation of technical efficiency and production risk for multi-output banks under a panel data cost frontier model

This article generalizes production risk from a single output production function to a multiple output cost frontier, which is able to examine input-oriented technical efficiencies and production risk simultaneously in the context of a panel data. Furthermore, the joint confidence interval estimates for technical efficiencies are constructed by means of multiple comparisons with the best approach. Whether taking production risk into account or not offers quite dissimilar implications in terms of the average technical efficiency measure and the identification of multiple efficient banks achieving the optimal cost frontier. It is suggested that inferences drawn on the basis of the confidence intervals of technical efficiency provide much more fruitful and insightful information than the point estimation alone. Bank specific risk parameters are found to be highly and positively correlated with fixed-effect estimates, implying that the more risk-averse a bank is, the more technically efficient it will be.

The effect of participative management on organizational performance: the case of Taiwan

The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of participative management on the behaviour of employees and the financial effectiveness of the enterprise. The analytical data are based on the survey of 308 Taiwan enterprises. Multiple regression results show that both suggestion system and labour-management committee have a positive impact on employees' behaviour in terms of turnover and absenteeism rates. Likewise, the quality control circle (QCC) and profit sharing have a positive impact on organizational effectiveness as seen in profit and revenue growth rates. However, employee stock-ownership plans and grievance-handling systems have negative effects on both performance indicators - employee behaviour and organizational effectiveness. The practical implications are also discussed.     

浅议我国资产评估管理体制的重构

20世纪80年代末,随着国有企业的重组改制、产权交易和中外合资、合作等经济活动的不断增多,资产评估作为为产权交易、合资合作等经济活动提供价值咨询服务的社会中介行业便应运而生.十多年来,资产评估积极参与改革,服务改革,已成为我国经济建设中不可或缺的公证性社会中介服务行业.随着我国加入WTO,我国资产评估行业既面临着前所未有的发展机遇,同时也承受着巨大的挑战,在评估理论上有很多问题需要深入研究,在评估实践操作上还亟待总结规范,尤其是评估管理体制更是存在着许多错综复杂的问题需要解决.     

Enhancing adaptive transfer of cross-cultural training: Lessons learned from the broader training literature

Drawing insights from the broader training literature, we argue that evaluation of cross-cultural training effectiveness should adopt comprehensive criteria, including cognitive, skill-based, and affective learning outcomes as well as adaptive transfer. We propose that the integration of an error management supplement in cross-cultural training can enhance trainee acquisition of self-regulation skills and self-efficacy that facilitate adaptive application of learning to novel cultural situations. In addition to the traditional error management training designs (i.e., positive error framing), the current paper describes additional design elements to promote acquisition of cognitive strategies, prevent premature automaticity, alleviate concerns about error occurrence during learning, and enhance readiness to transfer. In addition, we offer propositions regarding the effects of the supplement on learning and transfer outcomes, along with implications for future research and practice on cross-cultural training.     

Experiencing meaningfulness climate in teams: How spiritual leadership enhances team effectiveness when facing uncertain tasks

This study integrates social information processing theory with leadership and climate literature, and aims to produce novel theoretical insights into whether and how spiritual leadership and task uncertainty foster conditions to enhance meaningfulness climate and subsequent team effectiveness in China. Team effectiveness was operationalized as team performance and team organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). Based on data collected at three time points over 12 months from multiple sources of 123 teams in China, we found that spiritual leadership was positively related to team performance and team OCB through meaningfulness climate. Further, the relationship between spiritual leadership and meaningfulness climate was stronger for teams with high task uncertainty than teams with low task uncertainty.     

A context-based service matching approach towards functional reliability for industrial systems

ABSTRACT

As service-oriented computing is commonly used in industrial systems to deal with the continually changing business environment, matching processes with existing services becomes one of the most important phases in constructing, integrating and optimizing information systems. The precision of semantic service matching becomes a critical factor in ensuring the correctness of functionalities in system processes. However, the dependability of semantic service matching cannot be warranted in complex contexts. To improve semantic service matching for industrial systems, a context-based semantic service matching approach named ‘Process-Based service MatchMaker’(PBMM) is proposed in this paper. It selects the suitable services for the process from candidate services through taking the dependencies of related services process into consideration.     

A performance-oriented risk management framework for innovative R&D projects

Uncertainty is one of the major inherent difficulties in developing innovative products, due to their highly dynamic markets and technologies. The presence of a large degree of uncertainty leads to high R&D risks, resulting in many R&D failures. Therefore, it is important to manage R&D risks through all R&D stages to improve R&D project success rates. This paper proposes a new risk management framework that aligns project risk management with corporate strategy and a performance measurement system to increase success rates of R&D projects and to accomplish corporate strategic goals. The balanced scorecard is used to identify major performance measures of an R&D organization based on the firm vision and strategy. Quality function deployment is adapted to transform organizational performance measures into project performance measures and a systematic procedure is developed for risk identification, assessment, response planning, and control. The proposed risk management framework enables an R&D project to be focused on achieving the corporate goals and provides a more effective way to identify, assess, analyze, and monitor R&D risks along the project cycle. The proposed methodology is illustrated with a drug development project.     

鼻内镜手术治疗慢性鼻窦炎患者115例护理分析

临床实践中,鼻内镜手术作为一种比较常规的鼻窦炎手术治疗方法,具有治疗效果显著的特征,且复发率低。本文主要就鼻内镜手术治疗慢性鼻窦炎患者115例患者的情况,对手术前和手术后的护理措施进行了分析和探讨。