风险管理，你犯错了吗？

我们无法预测“黑天鹅事件”的发生,与其一味幻想可以执掌未来,防堵风险,不如设法降低此类威胁带来的不良影响。     

‘Thinking Outside the Box’? Trade Union Organizing Strategies and Polish Migrant Workers in the United Kingdom

This article focuses on the responses of British trade unions to the arrival of Polish workers since the 2004 enlargement of the European Union. It is argued that existing definitions and explanations of UK trade union engagement with migrant workers do not capture the strategies that have been used to engage with these migrant workers. We suggest that there have been two sets of responses. First, recruitment and organization activity has centred on inclusion and has been undertaken on new terrains using innovative strategies. Second, we point to the importance of new linkages locally, regionally, nationally and internationally in organizing these new labour market entrants.     

Embracing invention similarity for the measurement of vertically overlapping claims

ABSTRACT

Clear and well-defined patent rights can incentivize innovation by granting monopoly rights to the inventor for a limited period of time in exchange for public disclosure of the invention. However, with cumulative innovation, when a product draws from intellectual property held across multiple firms (including fragmented intellectual property or patent thickets), contracting failures may lead to suboptimal economic outcomes. However, an alternative theory, developed by a variety of scholars, contends that patent thickets have a more ambiguous effect. Researchers have developed several measures to gauge the extent and impact of cumulative innovation and the various channels of patent thickets. This paper contends that mis-measurement may contribute to the incoherence and overall lack of consensus within the patent thickets literature. Specifically, the literature is missing a precise measure of vertically overlapping claims. We propose a new measure of vertically overlapping claims that incorporates invention similarity to more precisely identify inventive overlap. The measure defined in this paper will enable more accurate measurement, and allow for novel economic research on cumulative innovation, fragmentation in intellectual property, and patent thickets within and across all patent jurisdictions.     

Interstate migration in Mexico: variations on the Todaro theme

"This study of migration in Mexico is based upon a modified Todaro approach and utilizes census data in a simultaneous equations model of 13 variables. It is unique in several ways: (a) it introduces proxy variables for employment probability and cost of migration that have not heretofore been found in the literature, but for which data are often available; (b) it illustrates that in some important cases census data have advantages not available through surveys; and (c) it finds that in some sense land reform in Mexico may have operated perversely. Finally, the study opens a new avenue for the study of informal sector growth."     

The Role of Fiscal Policy in the Eighties*

After surveying objections to using expansionary fiscal policy to raise output and employment. this article concludes that budget deficits do not necessarily lead to high interest rates and that crowding out is only moderate. even with non-accommodating monetary policy. The major constraint on the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policy is the need to avoid devaluation. If real wages are rigid downwards. devaluation will lead to increases in inflationary pressure rather than increases in output. Because of this. and because of inflationary pressure from short-run Phillips curve effects. expansionary fiscal policy must be complemented by a prices and incomes policy.     

Extraction of an Exhaustible Resource: The Effects on Investment of Several Parameters Being Subject to Uncertainty*

This article shows that the effect on investment of the introduction of uncertainty about the size of one parameter depends on what other parameters are simultaneously uncertain. Further, two parameters may be linked with positive or negative covariances. The covariances are here shown to have important effects on the investor, whether risk neutral or risk averse. Governments are advked to consider policies that affect the covariances of those parameters that are key influences on in vestment.     

A brief technology assessment of the Carbon Dioxide effect

Significant increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide are occuring as a result of fossil fuel combustion. More than a four-fold increase over preindustrial levels may occur by the year 2100. Heating of the atmosphere, changes in precipitation patterns and global storm paths, and other resulting effects are sure to cause significant social changes. This article is essentially a methodological case study demonstrating a useful but inexpensive type of technology assessment. It summarizes current research findings on “the CO₂ effect,” and presents hitherto unpublished findings that resulted from a brief but systems-oriented approach. These findings suggest that most published forecasts of phenomena associated with a CO₂ buildup may be systematically low because various positive feedback relationships are not reflected.     

Increasing returns to scale and the reverse flexible accelerator

We show that the flexible accelerator principle characterizes optimal investment behavior only when the firm's technology exhibits decreasing returns to scale throughout. When there are increasing returns we show that there is a range in which investment increases as the capital stock increases towards its long-run equilibrium level.     

Disparities in income elasticities by ethnic origin

This paper uses expenditure survey data to analyse disparities in income elasticities of demand by ethnic origin. Engel curve estimates indicate that the food elasticity varies with ethnic origin, while the others are quite similar. With data on five food commodities, the income elasticities display considerable disparities.