Improvement in clinical trial disclosures and analysts’ forecast accuracy: evidence from the pharmaceutical industry

This paper examines whether financial analysts use the information contained in clinical trial disclosures to improve their forecast accuracy for pharmaceutical companies. Findings indicate that the improved clinical trial disclosures due to a quasi-regulation issued by the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) significantly reduce analysts’ long-term forecast error. In addition, a propensity-score matching analysis provides additional strong evidence that issuance of the 2005 ICMJE’s regulation is accompanied by an average 45 % decrease in long-term forecast error, and a more than 50 % decrease in long-term forecast dispersion. This study contributes to the accounting literature regarding nonfinancial disclosures by providing the first insights into financial analysts’ use of clinical trial disclosures in their forecasts of future earnings. In addition, because the major event examined in this study is a quasi-regulation issued by the ICMJE, we provide additional insights on the effectiveness of industry-initiated regulations (or quasi-regulations) on nonfinancial disclosure practice.     

Managerial entrenchment, equity payout and capital structure

I develop a contingent claims model to examine the impacts of managerial entrenchment on capital structure and security valuation. The analysis shows that managers’ self-interested leverage choices deviate significantly from the optimal leverages that maximize firm values, partially explaining the suboptimal leverage ratios observed empirically (Graham, 2000). Both the extent and sensitivity of the deviations are affected by firm characteristics, debt features and default solutions. The shareholder-manager conflicts over risk level and cash payout vary dynamically with a firm’s financial health. Managerial entrenchment does not mitigate the agency problems of debt since managers’ discretionary decisions on milking properties or asset substitution could be driven by incentives to increase their own utility.     

基于成本分析与指导价格的超载治理研究——以湖南省的调研数据为例

以湖南省的公路货运调研数据为基础,结合经济学的成本理论建立成本分析模型进行研究发现:我国货运超载的主要原因是货运市场长期均衡决定的运价水平低于额定载重量下的平均成本。因此,从维护运输业者利益的角度出发,应从四个方面加以改进:第一,政府应建立和完善公路货运行业的准入与退出机制,相机调控其规模;第二,针对公路货运价格过低的现状,政府应制定和推行指导价格以保证货运行业的健康发展;第三,继续合理增强对超载运营者的惩罚力度,打击和遏制超载行为;第四,针对我国公路货运相关税费较高的情况,政府应适量减免税费。     

World Ranking of Real Estate Research: Recent Changes in School Competitiveness and Research Institutions

Real estate programs are ranked based upon page counts of articles published in three major real estate journals. The page counts are employed to capture many variations in the length of articles. For each author, his/her most recent affiliation is used to evaluate the school competitiveness of current faculty members rather than a perceived school reputation of the past. In this study, we find that top-tier schools in real estate research are not necessarily the most famous schools in economics and finance; progressive universities specializing in real estate research hold the top ranks. Furthermore, school competitiveness has changed substantially in the United States. The changes are mainly because of a mobility of faculty members. The results also show that U.S. institutions dominate research in real estate.     

湖南水污染税的税制设计及征收效应的一般均衡分析

湖南省"两型社会"的深化建设、首批环境税的开征试点、湘江污染的重点治理等事件将湖南省水污染税改革推向了历史的舞台。借鉴国外水污染税开征经验,文章系统地设计了湖南省水污染税征收的基本框架,运用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型模拟征收水污染税对宏观经济、产业结构、污染物减排等产生的影响。结果表明:开征水污染税宏观经济受损的长期影响要大于短期;对绝大部分行业都带来了不同程度的负面影响,其中短期合成材料制造业产出下降最大,而长期毛纺织和染整精加工业受损最大;然而征收水污染税减少重金属等污染物排放,氨氮、化学需氧量下降尤为显著。     

中国养老保险制度改革的政策选择——老龄化、城市化、全球化的视角

中国的养老保险制度改革不仅要考虑到人口老龄化的挑战,还需看到经济全球化提出的要求,以及城市化带来的机遇。本文基于详实的数据和深入的前期研究,指出中国的养老保险制度改革仍然具有一些独特的空间,包括老年劳动参与的提高,劳动生产率的提升,养老保险覆盖面的扩大,保险基金投资回报率的提高等。中国的老龄化发生在经济发展水平相对较低的阶段,在经济全球化时代,需要权衡缴费率和国际竞争力之间的矛盾。与人口老龄化相伴随的是城市化,将农村转移劳动力纳入城镇社会保障体系可以在较长时间内改变体系的负担率,同时农村老年人口绝对数量的下降,也可为政府补贴增长提供条件。长期而言,老龄化社会的养老能力根本上取决于劳动生产率的不断提高。     

新监管政策对小企业金融实现商业可持续发展的效用分析

为解决小企业贷款难问题,监管当局在原监管政策效用不明显的情况下,又出台了新监管政策,新政策从调整小企业贷款的资本充足率计算口径入手,旨在降低小企业贷款的经济资本占用额,提高小企业贷款的资本回报水平,实现小企业贷款的合理定价,激发商业银行发展小企业金融的内生动力,从根本上解决小企业金融的商业可持续发展问题。本文采用数值算例的方法对新监管政策的有关效用进行了分析,并从商业银行角度提出了相应对策建议。     

支付机构净资本监管研究

虽然中国人民银行2010年颁布的《非金融机构支付服务管理办法》对支付机构的实缴货币资本有所要求,但对其监管仍然属于会计资本监管。本文分析了对支付机构实施会计资本监管存在的弊端,探讨了对支付机构实施净资本监管的可能性与必要性,初步设计了对支付机构实施净资本监管的净资本计算规则,并提出了在现有制度背景下,实施净资本监管模式应当注意的问题。     

The price impact of foreign institutional herding on large-size stocks in the Taiwan stock market

This study constructs a panel threshold regression model to explore the price impact of foreign institutional herding of firms listed in the Taiwan Stock Exchange during January 2000 to June 2008. Our panel threshold model is constructed to explore the price impact of foreign institutional investors?? herding in the Taiwan stock market after controlling the firm size. By examining the presence of threshold effect, this study analyzes whether firm size would obviously and asymmetrically affect the explanation for the effect of changes in foreign investors?? share ownership on abnormal returns. The empirical results of this study find the significant evidence of threshold effect which divides the stocks into large-size and small-size firms. It is found that foreign institutional investors in the Taiwan stock market tend to hold large-size stocks listed in the Taiwan Stock Exchange. There is an apparent increase in the subsequent abnormal returns on large-size stocks bought in bulk by foreign investors. The signals of changes in share ownership initiated by foreign institutional investors would reveal further information for improving the performance of asset reallocation decisions in Taiwan. The panel threshold model constructed in this paper well describes the price impact of institutional herding yet eschews the possibly subjective data snooping issue resulting from the two-pass sorting method as proposed by previous related researches.     

美国债券定向发行制度研究及启示——兼论我国中小企业债券融资制度建设

最近,我国债券相关主管机关正积极研究债券定向发行制度。该制度的立法本源是通过构建适合具有自我保护能力的投资者的发行豁免或简化制度,提高融资效率,形成多层次的融资渠道。美国从发行、转售和清算结算及登记托管等环节对定向发行制度进行了全面系统的规范。而我国的债券定向发行制度规定过于简单,条块分割明显,实践效果差。本文建议借鉴美国相关制度,完善我国债券的定向发行制度。