The Fed,the Bond Market,and Gradualism in Monetary Policy

We develop a model of monetary policy with two key features: the central bank has private information about its long‐run target rate and is averse to bond market volatility. In this setting, the central bank gradually impounds changes in its target into the policy rate. Such gradualism represents an attempt to not spook the bond market. However, this effort is partially undone in equilibrium, as markets rationally react more to a given move when the central bank moves more gradually. This time‐consistency problem means that society would be better off if the central bank cared less about the bond market.     

Concavity of utility,concavity of welfare,and redistribution of income

The marginal social value of income redistribution is understood to depend on both the concavity of individuals’ utility functions and the concavity of the social welfare function. In the pertinent literatures, notably on optimal income taxation and on normative inequality measurement, it seems to be accepted that the role of these two sources of concavity is symmetric with regard to the social concern about inequality in the distribution of income. Direct examination of the question, however, reveals that this is not the case. Concavity of utility has a simple, direct effect on the marginal social value of redistribution, as might be expected, whereas concavity of the social welfare function has a more subtle influence, one that in some cases may not be very significant. The implications of this difference are examined for some standard forms of utility and welfare functions, including particular versions that appear in the optimal income taxation literature.     

Unequal inequalities: Do progressive taxes reduce income inequality?

This paper analyzes the effect of changes in the structural progressivity of national income tax systems on observed and actual income inequality. Using several unique measures of progressivity over the 1981–2005 period for a large panel of countries, we find that progressivity reduces inequality in observed income, but has a significantly smaller impact on actual inequality, approximated by consumption-based Ginis. An empirical comparative analysis shows that the differential effect on observed versus actual inequality is much larger in countries with weaker legal institutions. We also find that structural progressivity has a greater equalizing effect in environments that support pro-poor redistribution. Substantial differences in inequality response to changes in top versus bottom rates are also uncovered.     

Product elimination: A barrier to successful financial service sector company mergers?

The UK's financial service sector is in a process of consolidation predominately via merger and acquisition activity. Driving this process is the desire to reduce costs, increase efficiency and acquire larger customer volumes. This may result in the amalgamation of product management functions and product portfolios, leading inevitably to the need for product rationsalisation. A key controlling factor within this is the inability easily to eliminate financial service products. This may jeopardise the organisation's ability to gain the objectives that have driven the merger/acquisition action. Two key factors were seen to hinder the portfolio amalgamation process. First, the incompatibility of IT-based product management systems. Secondly, the existence of a ‘knowledge gap’ which made it harder to plan and implement effectively large-scale product elimination and portfolio amalgamation. It is likely that this will lead to higher than desired operating costs, duplication in product and service function, and loss of freedom in managing customers.     

Conservation,Discrimination, and Salvation: Investors’ Social Concerns in the Stock Market

Stocks appear to have investor clienteles based on their business practices and products. The variety in expressive benefits each individual receives from owning controversial stocks causes them to modify their portfolio to accommodate their beliefs. We examine the ownership of firms with social concerns and sin stocks (tobacco, alcohol and gambling). Women tilt their portfolios towards stocks with progressive labor policies for women and minorities. Younger investors avoid companies with poor environmental records but seek companies with progressive labor policies. Democratic voters favor stocks with progressive policies regarding women/minorities and gays/lesbians and are less likely to own sin stocks. Christian objections to homosexuality lead their members to invest less in stocks with progressive labor policies for gays and lesbians. The Christian denominations vary, though, in regard to sin stocks. Catholics are more likely while Mormons are less likely to own a sin stock relative to other investors. Socially responsible investors are clearly not all alike. Social characteristics that are important to one investor may not be important to another socially conscious investor.     

Statistical Independence and Fractional Age Assumptions

Abstract

This paper considers in some detail the issue of statistical independence of the curtate future lifetime and the fractional part of the future lifetime of a general status.

Statistical independence is often employed in actuarial contexts, primarily because it leads to simple relationships between quantities of interest and statistical information that is of a discrete nature, such as a life table. The uniform distribution of deaths (UDD) assumption is the most commonly used because of its simplicity and intuitive appeal, but it can be somewhat restrictive. For example, all deaths or withdrawals may be assumed to be at a particular point in the year such as the middle; assumptions of this type are often made in a multiple decrement context. This paper attempts to unify these assumptions and extend their applicability in an actuarial context.

The conditions for independence need to be stated carefully, and the last-survivor status is cited as an example in which failure to do so can lead to erroneous conclusions.

The fractional independence (Fl) assumption is defined, and it is demonstrated that many of the formulas for life table functions that hold under the more restrictive UDD assumption are extended easily to the general Fl case. The simple relationship under UDD between insurances payable on other than an annual mode and those payable at the end of the year of death is extended to the Fl case as well. These results are then used to obtain results for annuities and reserves, again generalizing UDD relationships. It is then demonstrated that many contingent probabilities in the multiple life context are exactly the same under the Fl assumption as under the more restrictive UDD assumption. Finally, a very general result that holds in the multiple decrement context is shown to hold under the Fl assumption.     

Overreaction after Controlling for Size and Book-to-Market Effects and its Mimicking Portfolio in Japan

In this paper we observe that firm size (SZ) and book-to-market (BM) cannot fully explain stock returns on prior-return- (PR-) based portfolios in the Japanese stock market. The overreaction effect after controlling for the SZ and BM effects is significant and persistent, and accounts for a large part of the zero-investment returns on the loser to the winner. We therefore propose a new mimicking portfolio whose returns mimic the common factor in returns related to overreaction. Our evidence shows that the proposed four-factor model captures common variation in returns on portfolios, based on stocks SZ, BM, and PR, better than the well-known three-factor model does.