An Annotated Bibliography of Estimation Procedures Useful in Engineering Economy

Standard decision analysis involves the folding-back of decision trees. This paper provides a simpler approach to evaluating decision trees. It is shown that under certain conditions two-stage trees may be evaluated by inspection of the trees and their probability distributions. Examples are presented of practical problems in which this technique is used.     

The effect of increases in the level of unemployement on older workers

This study explores the influence of the level of unemployment on labour force participation and full- versus part-time status, for men and women aged 56 to 60. Comparisons are also made with 16–19- and 31–35-year-old men and women. It is found that when the unemployment increases, discourgement is greater for older men than for younger ones. For Women, Prime-aged workers exhibit less discouragement than either the older or younger women. The study also infers the original labour force status of older discouraged workers. For men, displaced workers come largely from the ranks of full-time workers. For women, both full- and part-time workers are displaced.     

Interest differentials and extreme support for uncovered interest rate parity

This paper addresses two findings from the empirical literature testing uncovered interest parity (UIP): (i) more favorable results when interest differentials (IDs) are large and (ii) instability across samples. Simulations demonstrate that explanations of the results using large IDs based on the hypothesis of a “zone of speculative inactivity” are inconsistent with empirical evidence. Furthermore, it is shown that, if agents forecast IDs based on long-run values, coefficient estimates will be unstable if rates of decay in IDs vary significantly and, for ex post UIP to hold, IDs must decay in absolute value. This is consistent with OECD country data.     

Strategic planning of complex economic systems ∗

A major drawback of conventional models of the behavior of economic systems (and derived tools for policy intervention) is that the desire for tractability leads generally to a high degree of abstraction from reality. This article suggests an alternative, and arguably complementary, approach which engages specifically with economic complexity. The technique used is one of interactive spatial modelling over long time periods where the principle economic agents base decisions on incomplete heuristic information. For illustrative purposes the model has been calibrated on the basis of Senegalese data for 1981–91 and broad generic equations presented. The article argues that such a methodological approach holds out considerable advantages for strategic planning of sustainable economic systems. In particular it permits the direct engagement of noneconomic disciplines and client stakeholders in the planning process.     

Physician behavioural responses to variation in marginal income tax rates: longitudinal evidence

The longitudinal component of the Young Physicians Surveys (1987, 1991) is used to examine the impact of changes in marginal tax rates on key indicators of physician behaviour. Following the federal Tax Reform Act of 1986, many states' marginal income tax rates changed. This variation is used to estimate the responsiveness of work hours, HMO contracting and practice size to changes in taxes.     

Consumers as researchers – innovative experiences in UK National Health Service Research

Consumer involvement is an established priority in UK health‐ and social‐care service development and research. To date, little has been published describing the process of consumer involvement and assessing ‘consumers’ contributions to research. This paper provides a practical account of the effective incorporation of consumers into a research team, and outlines the extent to which they can enhance the research cycle; from project development and conduct, through data analysis and interpretation, to dissemination. Salient points are illustrated using the example of their collaboration in a research project. Of particular note were consumers' contributions to the development of an ethically enhanced, more robust project design, and enriched data interpretation, which may not have resulted had consumers not been an integral part of the research team.     

Marketing and Professional Services: the Case of Consultancy Engineering

Professional services suffer from a dearth of literature on marketing, especially in New Zealand. Like other professioal services, consulting engineers have expressed particular concern on how to adapt to the present competitive environment. A survey of New Zealand consulting engineers indicated that the use of marketing techniques within consulting engineering practices is uncoordinated in nature and there is disagreement as to the most efective method of attracting clientele. The lack of coordination of marketing techniques is best illustrated by the majority of consulting engineering practices competing on price, while actually perceiving service quality as the most important method for success. Within consulting engineering practices, marketing is becoming a legitimate management function. However, evidence can be seen to illustrate that the ‘trappings' of marketing prevail rather than the ‘substance’ which is needed to have the customer-driven orientation fundamental to the implementation of the marketing concept.     

Finite state Markov-chain approximations to highly persistent processes

The Rouwenhorst method of approximating stationary AR(1) processes has been overlooked by much of the literature despite having many desirable properties unmatched by other methods. In particular, we prove that it can match the conditional and unconditional mean and variance, and the first-order autocorrelation of any stationary AR(1) process. These properties make the Rouwenhorst method more reliable than others in approximating highly persistent processes and generating accurate model solutions. To illustrate this, we compare the performances of the Rouwenhorst method and four others in solving the stochastic growth model and an income fluctuation problem. We find that (i) the choice of approximation method can have a large impact on the computed model solutions, and (ii) the Rouwenhorst method is more robust than others with respect to variation in the persistence of the process, the number of points used in the discrete approximation and the procedure used to generate model statistics.