Expectations Formation and Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Empirical Analysis of Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975–1996

Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected output in eight industries in the UK manufacturing sector. No evidence is found with which to reject rationality in the derived expectations series when measurement error is appropriately taken into account. The VAR analysis illustrates the importance of intersectoral interactions and business confidence in explaining the time profile of industrial outputs, examines the mechanisms by which shocks are propagated across sectors and over time and investigates the relative importance of sectoral and aggregate shocks of different types.     

经济全球化背景下我国经济安全面临的问题与对策

随着经济全球化、金融一体化进程的加快,一方面各国的经济联系比以往更加紧密,另一方面一国的经济发展也更容易受到国内外不利因素的影响。在经济全球化背景下如何保障国家的经济安全成为国际社会普遍关注的重要课题。该文对国家经济安全的涵义及其构成作了界定,分析了当前我国经济安全面临的问题,提出了保障我国经济安全的对策建议。     

Editorial

This July 2012 edition of Public Money &; Management publishes a range of articles debating matters of interest to academics and practitioners working in the provision of public services. The efficient use of public resources is a recurrent theme in our journal and this is reflected in different ways in this edition.     

城管执法者的暴力倾向与素养提振的制度完善

城市管理综合执法从设立至今已经走过十余年了,在取得成绩的同时也存在很多的弊端,主要表现为城管执法人员素质不高,引发一系列的暴力执法事件.城管执法工作本意是使城市居民有一个更好和更安全的生活环境,可是为什么在实践中却出现了相反的结果呢?这是一个值得深思的现象.     

Identifying sources of systematic variation in direct price elasticities from revealed preference studies of inter-city freight demand

Freight demand elasticity studies vary significantly in terms of the demand measure, data type, estimation method, commodity type, etc. This wide variation makes it difficult to compare empirical estimates when the differences may arise in part from the methods and data used. In this paper we conduct a comparative analysis to identify systematic sources of influence on direct price elasticity estimates in the context of freight transport, distinguishing between road, rail, and sea transport, using published direct price elasticities from 12 elasticity-derivative studies from five countries. The study focuses on revealed preference elasticities defined by the freight rate for tonnes and tonne kilometres of inter-city freight movements. Systematic sources that explain differences in direct price elasticities include the demand elasticity measure, mode, commodity class, model estimation form, country, and temporal nature of data (e.g., cross-section). Analysts can utilise the model outputs to adjust the empirical evidence from specific studies to control for differences that impact on the behavioural implications of comparative evidence.     

浅谈信息技术在语文教学中的作用

随着信息化浪潮的迅猛推进,信息技术渗透到教育的各个方面,信息技术在语文教学过程中发挥着越来越重要的作用,本文运用当前相关的研究成果以及自己的教学实践,对信息技术在语文教学中所起的作用进行了初步的探索和研究。     

提高大学英语教师素质的几点思考

大学英语教师的素质对外语教学质量有着重要影响,本文对此进行了探讨,并指出在当前形势下,不应忽视教师素质的提高.     

马尾口岸蝇类生物多样性和携带病原微生物情况的研究

目的全面掌握马尾口岸蝇类的种群分布及季节消长变化,分析不同生境和地点蝇类携带病原微生物的差别,对相关疾病的流行风险进行评估。方法根据马尾口岸地理分布和港口类型,2007年7月至2008年6月间,抽取8个监测点7个不同生境实施为期1年的蝇类本底调查,按生境分类对携带病原微生物进行检测。结果捕获蝇类49579只,年平均密度74.67只/笼.日,隶属4科22属36种,比2004年多19种,其中4种未见在福州分布记录,大头金蝇为优势种群。垃圾堆蝇密度最高,高于荒地、居民室外和食堂。大裕堆场和中钢码头蝇密度较高,高于居委会、青州堆场、局本部和闽鑫物流。5至10月份捕获的蝇数占总数的94.57%,出现了9月和5月的双峰。蝇类体内、外均虽未检出痢疾杆菌、伤寒杆菌和霍乱弧菌等强致病菌,但普遍检出了变形杆菌、铜绿假单胞菌和肺炎克雷伯菌等,以及可引起食物中毒的病原菌如金黄色葡萄球菌、变形杆菌等,个别样本检出气单胞菌和小肠耶尔森氏菌。部分蝇体内检出柯萨奇病毒和轮状病毒（A组）。结论马尾口岸蝇种丰富,比4年前有了较大增长,出现了4种输入性蝇种,蝇类体表和体内携带的病毒,可能引起食物中毒及其他肠道传染病传播的风险。     

国外房地产税制的经验与借鉴

随着我国房地产市场的进一步发展，房地产税必然有极大的潜力，而我国现行房地产税制存在着税费不清、税制松散、税制要素欠科学等问题。因此，有必要借鉴国外的成功经验，深化我国房地产税制改革，深化税费改革、统一规范税制、扩大税基。