Rafting the River: A Risk Management Expert System for Dynamic Problem Solving

Commercial project management systems focus on preproject planning and after-the-fact documentation, but not on the dynamic problem solving required in day-to-day project management. Yet the need for risk-oriented management is clear. To understand and control project risks, managers must be able to identify problems as they occur, immediately assess their downstream impacts, and plan a course of action. The Advanced Risk Management System (ARMS) is a prototype system built to address the issues of identifying, analyzing, prioritizing, monitoring, and controlling project risk. ARMS uses expert systems, data base management, and hypermedia technologies to capture and classify project schedule problems, to determine their semantic impacts to future activities, and to alert appropriate project personnel in advance of problem occurrence.     

Estimating and comparing learning curves in three Asian economies

This paper consists of two parts. In the first, a method is suggested to isolate the effects of scale economies on learning phenomena by integrating the conventionally specified learning curve with the production function in neoclassical economics. The problem of establishing the variable for measuring experience is dealt with in the estimation procedure. Using this method we estimated the learning curves of 20 industries in the manufacturing sector in Singapore using data taken from 1961 to 1991. More modern industries like electronics, precision instruments and pharmaceutics have steeper learning curves than older industries. Among traditional industries, the food and beverage industry has a greater learning potential than others. In the second part of the paper, the learning curves for 11 common industries in South Korea, Japan and Singapore were estimated and compared. The Japanese industries are found to have steeper learning curves compared to those in Singapore and South Korea.The authors are from the Department of Business Policy, Faculty of Business Administration, National University of Singapore. The authors would like to thank Ms Tan Mui Lee for her assistance in preparing the time series data used for this study.     

Exploitation or Choice? Exploring the Relative Attractiveness of Employment in the Maquiladoras

This study investigates the relative attractiveness of production level jobs provided by multinational firms in Mexico's maquiladora industry. We take the position that workers themselves are an important and often overlooked source of information relevant to the controversy focusing on the responsibilities of multinational companies to their employees in the developing world. We conducted interviews with 59 maquila production level workers in the Mexican cities of Cd. Juárez and Chihuahua. Using a relative attractiveness framework that compared maquila jobs to other employment available in the local economy, maquila line and technical workers responded to questions addressing why they were working at a maquila, their work history, the attractiveness of maquila jobs compared to both their prior jobs and the jobs held by friends and family, and whether they planned to continue working in the maquilas. While the responses from maquila workers are diverse, they suggest that maquila jobs provide attractive employment for the economically disadvantaged in Northern Mexico.     

Robust portfolio choice with stochastic interest rates

We determine the optimal investment strategy for an ambiguity-averse investor in a setting with stochastic interest rates. The investor has access to stocks, bonds, and a bank account and he is ambiguous about the expected rate of return of both bonds and stocks. The investor can have different levels of ambiguity aversion about the two types of risky assets. We find that it is more important to take model uncertainty about the stock dynamics than model uncertainty about the bond dynamics into account. Furthermore, the investor’s ambiguity increases his hedging demand. Consequently, the bond/stock ratio increases with his ambiguity and implies less extreme positions in the bank account. Altogether, our model yields portfolio allocations which are more in line with what is implementable in practice. Finally, we demonstrate that neglecting model uncertainty implies significant losses for the investor.     

Knowledge exchange in networked organizations: does place matter?

While many studies of knowledge exchange have been undertaken in private and service organizations, government and R&D enterprises, few have studied scientific inter‐organizational collaborations. Furthermore, in the literature on international networks there has been a tendency to assume that knowledge exchange will be inevitably enhanced by global dispersion. Two linked dynamics deserving further study are the role of geographic proximity and the role of information and communication technologies in facilitating knowledge flow across international networks. Studies of intra‐ and inter‐firm knowledge transfer, managerial work values and cultural norms all point to China as being a fascinating counterpoint for the way knowledge exchange might occur in Europe. So in this study of the ATLAS collaboration, a ‘big science’ global network of 3,500 physicists, we explore the perceptions of two subgroups: UK physicists working in Europe and Chinese scientists based in Beijing and HeFei. Findings from 24 interviews and non‐participant observation reveal that face‐to‐face working at European Organization for Nuclear Research (Geneva) is not without its difficulties, but for a variety of sociocultural reasons, it is primarily the Chinese scientists who perceive themselves to be inhibited from full participation in effective knowledge exchange.     

On the competition enhancing effects of exclusive dealing contracts

Antitrust scholars have argued that exclusive contracts have anticompetitive, or at best neutral effects, if no efficiencies are generated. In contrast, this paper shows that exclusive contracts can have procompetitive effects, provided buyers are imperfect downstream competitors and contract breach is feasible. In that case, an efficient entrant is not necessarily foreclosed through exclusive contracts but induces buyers to breach. Because breaching buyers have to pay expectation damages to the incumbent, the downstream profits they obtain when breaching must be large enough. Therefore, the entrant needs to set a lower wholesale price than absent exclusive contracts, leading to lower final consumer prices and higher welfare.     

Cellular clouds

This paper progresses an analysis of what it means to be a cellular network operator and what form the ownership and control of future cellular networks may take. Alternative modes of ownership may allow for the creation of more flexible cellular networking environments in which competition for packages of resources, that is, the licenced spectrum, the RAN and core network, ensures that the most efficient and innovative architectures, services and applications are delivered to the consumer. This paper develops the concept of the Cellular Network Cloud and Utility Cellular Networking as a means to explore the possibilities for such revolution in the way in which cellular networks are owned and operated. Changes to current industry practices which would help to meet the objectives of more flexible and competitive network ownership and control are proposed.     

Optimal commodity taxation with duty-free shopping

International travellers are frequently offered the opportunity to purchase a certain quantity of goods duty-free. Individuals differ in their opportunities to benefit from duty-free shopping, and we focus on the implications of these differences for optimal commodity taxation within a version of the optimal tax model of Mirrlees (Review of Economic Studies, 38, 175–208, 1971). We show how duty-free alters the constraints on the use of commodity taxes to reduce the distortionary costs of income taxation or to reflect externalities. Beyond characterising optimal taxes in the duty-free regime, we discuss conditions under which allowing duty-free would increase or reduce social welfare.