Testing Alternative Hypotheses in Economic History

This paper employs a statistical technique comparing non-nested quantitative models in order to address an important problem in economic history, namely, the appropriate role of microeconomic models in historical analysis. Discussion proceeds by example. As described in the paper, three research groups have offered explantations of the shift from corn to cotton production in the post-bellum US South but because their research methods are different, it is difficult to evaluate them effectively. This paper suggests a method for comparing them. The method is based on the Neyman–Pearson likelihood ratio and proceeds by focusing on the three groups’ models of crop choice, in turn hypothesizing each model as ‘truth’, and testing all other against it. Though restrictive in its own right, this excercise suggests one data-oriented approach to all-too-common problem of model proliferation in economic history.     

Outcomes from use of an evidence-based practice guideline

The aim of evidence-based guidelines is primarily to improve patient outcomes without adding to the existing cost of care because both payers and policymakers want to identify health care costs that do not result in benefit to the patient. The purpose of the reported project was to generate a practice guideline for the treatment of uncomplicated acute cystitis in a female population, to determine the extent to which the guideline would be used by providers and to measure the cost and quality of outcomes from its use. A retrospective chart review was used to gather pre-guideline practice and cost data. Measurements included the type, frequency, and duration of antibiotic therapy and the use of urine cultures and both complications and routine followup visits. The implementation of an outpatient practice guideline resulted in a significant change in antibiotic prescribing and a trend toward a change in ordering cultures and clinic followup. There was also a significant decrease in treatment costs.     

The innovation performance of MNE subsidiaries and local embeddedness: evidence from an emerging economy

We examine the innovation performance of MNE subsidiaries and their embeddedness in sources of local knowledge in a policy framework within the context of an emerging economy. Based on first-hand evidence from multiple case studies, we found that: (1) there was variability between the subsidiaries in terms of the cumulative manner and speed at which they improved their innovation performance over time, using progressively levels of accumulated capability as a proxy; (2) these differences in innovation performance improvement reflected heterogeneity between the subsidiaries in terms of the learning efforts made to acquire knowledge from local organizations; (3) the varied frequency in which the subsidiaries developed such local relationships reflects their differing responses to a common industrial policy that makes use of tax incentives to stimulate such links. The paper reveals the limitations of this conventional type of industrial policy in stimulating industrial development and the embeddedness of MNEs. It also suggests that a new direction for policy, which incorporates public–private negotiations and a focus on the firm-centred building of innovation capabilities, should be pursued in order to accelerate the innovation performance progress of latecomer firms.     

Using Credible Advice to Overcome Framing Effects

A framing effect occurs when different, but logically equivalent,words or phrases (e.g., 10% employment or 90% unemployment)cause individuals to alter their decisions. Demonstrations offraming effects challenge a fundamental tenet of rational choicetheory and suggest that public opinion is so malleable thatit cannot serve as a useful guide to policymakers. In this articleI argue that most previous work overstates the ubiquity of framingeffects because it forces experimental participants to makedecisions in isolation from social contact and context. I presenttwo experiments where I show that some widely known framingeffects greatly diminish and sometimes disappear when participantsare given access to credible advice about how to decide. I discussthe implications of my findings for rational choice theory,and public opinion and public policy.     

The effect of annual changes in automobile fuel economy standards

Since 1978 the Federal government has regulated the fuel economy of new cars sold in the United States. The purpose of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards is to lessen the national dependence on foreign oil. Through the use of theoretical and empirical models this paper examines the impact of CAFE standards on the automobile industry and on energy consumption. It is shown that CAFE standards may or may not save energy. If CAFE does save energy, it does so at a prohibitive cost to the economy. CAFE standards are also shown to have a number of perverse impacts on the automobile industry as well as consumers.     

人民币的困境

一 中国的经济发展是一个奇迹,发展得那么好,人民币币值强劲应该是大好形势.但是现在我们国家在人民币问题上遇到了困境,这些问题处理得不好,会影响中国的发展.     

Upstream horizontal mergers involving a vertically integrated firm

Journal of Economics - We study upstream horizontal mergers when one of the merging parties is vertically integrated. Under observable contracting in the pre-merger case, we show that such type of...