Estimating the Half-life of Advertisements

The effectiveness of an advertisement wears out over time; eventually, it becomes totally ineffective. The author proposes a concept for measuring the lifetime of an advertisement and derives closed-form expressions for it under certain conditions. In addition, the author distinguishes the proposed concept, the half-life of an advertisement, from the prevalent notion of the duration of advertising effects. More importantly, the information on the half-life of ads is actionable from a managerial standpoint, whereas that on the duration of advertising effect is hypothetical. To enable advertisers to estimate the half-life of their ads, the author describes an estimation approach and illustrates its use by applying it to the advertising of the Dockers® brand of Levi Strauss and Company. Substantively, the lifetime of advertisements for the Dockers® brand is about three months. Thus, advertisers are well-advised to periodically estimate the half-life of their ads, so that they can plan the timing to replace worn out advertisements.     

The Operational Hedging Properties of Intangible Assets: the Case of Non–voluntary Foreign Asset Selloffs

In this paper we examine the valuation effects and long–term performance of US multinational firms involved in forced transfers of their foreign operating assets during the 1965–88 period. The evidence suggests that the operational hedging ability of the firm to address country risk (nationalization threats) is related to the level of its intangible assets. While it is well known that firms with high levels of intangible assets prefer foreign direct investment, our results show that intangible assets have hidden properties of protection against country risk as well. We document significantly negative abnormal returns only for divesting firms with low levels of intangible assets, but not for firms with high levels of intangible assets. In addition, we show that low (high) growth firms are involved in partial (complete) withdrawals, and show that the long–term economic performance of firms choosing the complete withdrawal strategy is better than those that opt to remain. We argue that management's attempt to maintain economic links in a hostile foreign environment can be attributed in part to the firm's low growth opportunities, performance, and lack of contingent plans to address country risk.     

Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Global Stock Return Distributions

This paper investigates conditional return distribution characteristics for seven developed markets (DMs) and eight emerging markets (EMs). With the exception of Germany and Japan, the behavior of monthly returns of DM sample countries is similar to that of the U.S. In contrast, EM returns exhibit a substantially greater degree of serial correlation and a higher incidence of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) in monthly data. Aggregation of returns into two- and three-month holding periods decreases the significance of the ARCH effects. However, there are cross-sectional differences in the rate at which ARCH effects become insignificant. The findings of ARCH in monthly returns sample data is attributed to differences in the rate at which information arrives and is transmitted into prices in each market.     

Combining Opinions for Use in Bayesian Networks: A Measurement Error Approach

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical probabilistic models used for reasoning under uncertainty. These models are becoming increasingly popular in a range of fields including engineering, ecology, computational biology, medical diagnosis and forensics. In most of these cases, the BNs are quantified using information from experts or from users' opinions. While this quantification is straightforward for one expert, there is still debate about how to represent opinions from multiple experts in a BN. This paper proposes the use of a measurement error model to achieve this. The proposed model addresses the issues associated with current methods of combining opinions such as the absence of a coherent probability model, the loss of the conditional independence structure of the BN and the provision of only a point estimate for the consensus. The proposed model is applied to a subnetwork (the three final nodes) of a larger BN about wayfinding in airports. It is shown that the approach performs well than do existing methods of combining opinions.     

International Trade and the Business Cycle

This paper develops a new empirical framework for analysing the dynamics of the trade balance in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks. The model provides a synthetic perspective on the conditional correlations between the business cycle and the trade balance that are generated by different shocks and attempts to reconcile these results with unconditional correlations found in the data. The results suggest that, in the post-Bretton Woods period, nominal shocks have been an important determinant of the forecast error variance for fluctuations in the trade balance in G-7 countries.     

Energy use in eight rural communities in India

A study of eight rural communities in India indicates that levels of energy consumption vary widely among the communities and that consumption depends on socioeconomic and agroclimatic factors. Irrigation is the most significant factor influencing energy consumption and demand. Fuelwood is not used mainly by the low-income households but by the higher-income households. There is a progressive trend towards monetizationof fuelwood, animal wastes and agricultural residues. Energy planning for rural communities should be location and household-specific, and disaggregated information should be generated for this purpose using baseline surveys.     

The Conceptualization and Measurement of Suppliers' Reputation Display in Asymmetric Marketing Relationships

In asymmetric buyer-supplier relationships, suppliers typically possess more information about the object of an exchange. To ameliorate customers' evaluation problems, suppliers use signals to promise the delivery of a certain quality level to the market. A commonly used supplier signal in asymmetric markets is the manner in which reputation is displayed to buyers. While the marketing literature recognizes the role of reputation in structuring such asymmetric buyer-supplier relationships, relatively little research effort has been directed at the conceptualization and measurement of suppliers' reputation display. To address this gap, I adopt an interdisciplinary perspective and conceptualize suppliers' reputation display as a multi-dimensional construct. Specifically, I argue that suppliers' reputation display represents a latent consisting of three distinct dimensions; (i) specific investments, (ii) advertising intensity, and (iii) certification. The preceding conceptualization implies that reputation display signals a suppliers' past and future conduct to the marketplace. For example, by displaying certification, suppliers expect the market to infer certain firm attributes based on past actions. Likewise, suppliers' investments in advertising and specific assets may provide a signal of future honest behavior to the marketplace. I empirically validate this three factor conceptualization of reputation display by utilizing the technique of Latent Variable Structural Equations Modeling (LVSE). Empirical tests conducted on data obtained from 287 automotive service managers via mail survey support the three factor model of reputation display.