Contemporary issues in empirical public finance

This paper provides a brief overview to how the use of game theory and its derivative theories of information and incentives in public finance have expanded economists' methodological toolkit for predicting how procedural aspects influence strategies of participants as well as their overall performance. Moreover given that evaluation of public policy options, where policy failures can and do occur due to either inadequate incentive structure or the presence of constitutional and behavioural constraints, the objective of the essays in this symposium is to indicate the richness and diversity of empirical approaches that have been used to shed quantitative light on applied public finance issues. First version received: May 1999/final version received: June 1999     

Transactions data tests of efficiency: An investigation in the Singapore futures markets

The aim of this article is to test the profitability of technical trading rules in the intra‐day currency futures market. A wide range of technical strategies are applied to tick data over a two‐year period for two currency futures—Japanese Yen (JY) and Deutschemark (DM)—traded in the Singapore International Monetary Exchange. The study finds that after incorporating transactions costs and testing for the significance of the profits using a bootstrap methodology, none of the technical trading systems produce significant returns. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:687–704, 2000     

Markets and institutions in financial intermediation: National characteristics as determinants

Given the importance of financial intermediation and the rise of globalization, there is little prior research on how national preferences for financial intermediation (markets versus institutions) are determined by cultural, legal, and other national characteristics. Using panel analysis for data on a recent 8-year period for 30 countries, this paper documents that national preferences for market financing increase with political stability, societal openness, economic inequality, and equity market concentration, and decreases with regulatory quality and ambiguity aversion. We confirm with robustness tests that our result for regulatory quality is independent of differences in national wealth and that our result for political stability is independent of both wealth and political legitimacy. These results should be of much interest to managers, scholars, regulators, and policy makers.     

The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle Is Persistent: Evidence from Stochastic and Nonparametric Cointegration Tests

An important puzzle in international finance is the failure of the forward exchange rate to be a rational forecast of the future spot rate. We document that even after accounting for nonstationarity, nonnormality, and heteroskedasticity using parametric and nonparametric tests on data for over a quarter century, U.S. dollar forward rates for the major currencies (the British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and the German mark) are generally not rational forecasts of future spot rates. These findings deepen the forward exchange rate bias puzzle, especially as these markets are the most liquid foreign exchange markets with very low trading costs.     

Do Stereotypes Ignite Polysemy and Strengthen Consumer-Based Brand Equity?

The research proposes and measures “stereotypical—polysemy—brand equity” framework for investigating African-American stereotypes and how the framework relates to advertising polysemy and consumer-based brand equity. The results demonstrate that positive stereotypes may result in both positive and negative polysemy; where positive polysemy strengthens the brand equity, and negative polysemy may not exhibit a negative influence on consumer-based brand equity. The research propagates practical implications for the advertising industry by signifying the usage of purposeful advertising polysemy for strengthening consumer-based brand equity through African-American stereotypes.     

Institutional hypothesis of the long-run income velocity of money and parameter stability of the equilibrium relationship

It has recently been argued that when the conventional specification of M2 income velocity is extended to include proxies for two types of institutional change, as emphasized by Bordo and Jonung (1987, 1990), corresponding to the processes of monetization and increasing financial sophistication of financial developments, this extended model is stable in the sense that one can reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration against the alternative of a single cointegrating vector. There may be implications that such an equilibrium relation is a structural income velocity of money function. The evidence based on century-long data from 1880 to 1986 presented in this paper about parameter instability of the cointegrating vector of velocity with its determinants for Canada, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom casts doubt on this interpretation. The evidence is based on using formal stability tests. Moreover, it has an ‘eyeball’ support from the sequential estimates of various parameters of the cointegrating relationship including income and interest semi-elasticities.     

The role of fiscal policy in the St. Louis model: Nonparametric estimates for a small open economy

This paper reevaluates the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policies and bidirectional causality between income and each of the policy instruments used in the St. Louis model for aggregate demand using nonparametric (or infinite parametric) spectral methods. We proceed by estimating the strength of the correlations (or partial coherences) between income and each of the policy instruments over various frequencies. Then we obtain the corresponding band regression and Hannan's efficient estimates of both the lead and lag coefficients in the St. Louis model. The analysis is carried out with seasonally adjusted quarterly data and is divided into the flexible, fixed, and managed flexible exchange rate regimes. We find that while estimates from parametric regressions yield the standard conclusions for the St. Louis model, results from the nonparametric analysis are quite different. Specifically, the results of our analysis reveal that (i) both monetary and fiscal instruments are strongly correlated with income over cycles of 10 quarters or longer for the most recent period of the managed flexible exchange rate regime, and (ii) bidirectional causality exists between income and the fiscal policy instrument. These results suggest that both monetary and fiscal policy have a long-lasting effect on aggregate demand and that bidirectional causality exists between income and policy instruments. An explanation for the existence of bidirectional causality might be that the Canadian government generally pursued a purposeful discretionary fiscal policy during the post-World War II period. Furthermore, it appears that discretionary policy action may have been anticipated by rational, farsighted, and forward-looking economic agents. Finally, our results for the flexible exchange rate and fixed rate regimes are in agreement with the Mundell-Fleming view of the role of monetary fiscal policy in an open economy.     

Coupons and private labels: A cross-category analysis of grocery products

This article examines the influence of coupons on private label shares of grocery products. The impact of national brand and private label coupons, distributed by manufacturers and retailers, is examined. A consumer framework and a typology of coupon effects are developed to explain different types of coupon usage behavior. Aggregate scanner panel data on 480 product categories are used in the analysis. Both the type of coupon and the method of distribution (by manufacturer or by retailer) are found to be important determinants of private label share response. Couponing activities by the national brand manufacturer are negatively related to private label share, thus indicating that they may be effective deterrents of private label penetration. However, couponing activities related to private labels do not help increase private label shares. The surprising finding is that national brand store couponing activity is positively related to private label share.