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71.
An important puzzle in international finance is the failure of the forward exchange rate to be a rational forecast of the future spot rate. We document that even after accounting for nonstationarity, nonnormality, and heteroskedasticity using parametric and nonparametric tests on data for over a quarter century, U.S. dollar forward rates for the major currencies (the British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and the German mark) are generally not rational forecasts of future spot rates. These findings deepen the forward exchange rate bias puzzle, especially as these markets are the most liquid foreign exchange markets with very low trading costs. 相似文献
72.
Given the importance of financial intermediation and the rise of globalization, there is little prior research on how national preferences for financial intermediation (markets versus institutions) are determined by cultural, legal, and other national characteristics. Using panel analysis for data on a recent 8-year period for 30 countries, this paper documents that national preferences for market financing increase with political stability, societal openness, economic inequality, and equity market concentration, and decreases with regulatory quality and ambiguity aversion. We confirm with robustness tests that our result for regulatory quality is independent of differences in national wealth and that our result for political stability is independent of both wealth and political legitimacy. These results should be of much interest to managers, scholars, regulators, and policy makers. 相似文献
73.
Theweekend effect and theyearend effect are some of the seasonal anomalies in financial markets that have been widely discussed in the finance literature. In this paper, using weekly observations of the S&P Composite Index over the period from July 1962 through June 1990, plus several subperiods, the authors identify the presence of a thus far unknown seasonal anomaly in the form of aweek-of-the-month return pattern in the stock market. The results suggest the existence of a statistically different weekly return pattern for different weeks of a month. Specifically, the returns during the first week of a month tend to be significantly positive while the returns during the other weeks of a month are statistically indistinguishable from zero. 相似文献
74.
Baldev Raj 《Empirical Economics》1993,18(1):173-195
This paper parametrically obtains estimates of persistence in output using Pandit's (1977, 1982) Data Dependent Systems approach for modelling autoregressive and moving average processes. The estimates are based on over a century of annual data for the rate of change of output in nine industrialized countries. The sensitivity of estimates to various model selection criteria is examined. While persistence in output is found to be sensitive to model selection criteria, the output of all countries including the United States is found to have a substantial degree of persistence if the ARMA models are chosen according to the Schwarz Bayesian Criterion, but excluding the ARMA models whose moving average roots are near the unit root (which involves pile-up phenomenon). Moreover, the parametric estimates of persistence are shown not to have the known upward bias problem commonly associated with parametric estimates of persistence relative to nonparametric estimates. 相似文献
75.
This paper provides evidence in support of the claim that the well-knownJanuary effect is influenced by the stage of the business cycle. Using monthly data for the S&P Composite Index for the period from November
1948 through December 1988 and the standard methodology for seasonal anomalies, the authors show that theJanuary effect is present during the entire period examined as well as in the expansionary phases of that period. However, its existence
was not detected during the contractionary phases of that period. 相似文献
76.
This paper investigates the extent to which institutional ownership of equity affects the market's response to announcements of new issues of common stock. We find that the absolute magnitude of the share price reaction is negatively related to the level of institutional ownership in the announcing firm. These results are consistent with the argument that the information acquisition activities of institutional investors reduce preannouncement information asymmetries between managers and the capital market. 相似文献
77.
Raj Aggarwal Aigbe Akhigbe James E. McNulty 《Journal of Financial Services Research》2006,30(3):265-286
We analyze 271 bank mergers for 1986–2001 to attempt to determine if differences among acquirers in profit efficiency are
priced in financial markets. We find that the acquirer’s pre-merger profit efficiency (as well as its experience in handling
other mergers) has positive effects on the wealth of the acquiring bank’s shareholders. We also find that more profit efficient
acquiring banks produce lower abnormal returns for the target, suggesting that well managed (i.e., more profit-efficient)
banks are less likely to overpay when they enter into a merger agreement. Financial market participants apparently take something
akin to the econometric concept of profit efficiency into account when they make decisions about bank stock purchases and
sales around merger announcement dates.
相似文献
78.
Regularities in risk-adjusted returns for securities listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) are examined in this study. A significant price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio effect is documented for the first time for a non-U.S. market, the TSE. Significant interactions between the P/E effect and the previously documented size and seasonal effects for the TSE are also documented. These results imply that studies of TSE companies must account for these return regularities and that explanations for such effects observed for U.S. and other markets that are based on some unique aspect of these markets are likely to be inadequate. 相似文献
79.
80.
Ping Lin Baldev Raj Michael Sandfort & Daniel Slottje 《Journal of economic surveys》2000,14(3):255-306
This paper provides a survey of recent research on the US antitrust system. First we provide an overview of the US antitrust system, describing the roles of the US Department of Justice, the Federal Trade Commission and case law. Second, we provide a new econometric trend analysis on the enforcement of US antitrust law, showing that (1) enforcement demonstrates some trend behavior, as well as comovement with business cycles; (2) the time series of antitrust cases demonstrates two distinct episodes, which we characterize as 'pre-deregulation' and 'post-deregulation;' (3) the time series of government antitrust filings leads the time series of private antitrust filings. Finally, we describe recent economic research relevant to the area of antitrust and the impact of this research on US antitrust policy. 相似文献