Payoff Assessments without Probabilities: A Simple Dynamic Model of Choice

We develop a model which reflects the tendency of people to simplify the decision problems they face. The decision maker chooses among alternate strategies only on the basis of the payoff she assesses she would obtain from them, and these assessments do not explicitly take into account her subjective judgements regarding the likelihood of alternate states of the world. At each stage, the decision maker chooses the strategy that she assesses to give the highest payoff. She updates her assessments adaptively. We show that such behavior leads to maxmin choices. We also consider the decision maker who experiences shocks. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C7, D8.     

Role of Forgetting in Memory-Based Choice Decisions: A Structural Model

We propose a structural model to investigate the impact of forgetting on consumers' brand choice decisions in frequently purchased products. Forgetting results in consumers imperfectly recalling their prior brand evaluations when making a purchase decision in the category. We conceptualize the imperfect recall by positing that consumers recall their prior evaluations with noise. Based on prior research in the behavioral area, we characterize the extent of forgetting as an increasing and concave function of time. Our framework generates analytical results on the impact of forgetting on consumers' brand evaluations and their consequent purchase behavior. We calibrate our model using scanner panel data for liquid detergents. Furthermore, we obtain insights into the consumers' extent of forgetting in the category, extent of learning, predicted price elasticities and implications on state dependence and habit persistence. Our results underscore the importance of modeling consumers' ability to recall only imperfectly.     

A Cross‐Cultural Comparison of the Plural Forms in Franchise Networks: United States,France, and Brazil*

This paper explores the phenomenon of plural forms (i.e., the simultaneous coexistence of franchised and company‐owned outlets, operationally, the proportion of company‐owned units in franchise systems based on literature, in franchising across three countries from three continents, namely the United States, France, and Brazil in what is ostensibly the first cross‐cultural comparison of its kind. Based on 2003 secondary data, we carry out a series of inferentially grounded analyses involving the plural forms phenomenon from an exploratory perspective. Though subsequently, comparative regression models are also evaluated using eight purported determinants of the use of the plural forms, the essential character of the paper remains essentially exploratory. The results show that the proportion of company‐owned outlets is almost three times greater in France and Brazil as compared to the United States. We also found that in the U.S. sample, three of the eight predictors significantly predict the occurrence of plural forms (namely, average total required investment and cash liquidity requirement have a negative impact, and company age has a positive impact); the French model was not statistically significant, whereas in the Brazilian sample, two predictors influence the plural forms phenomenon (i.e., total network size has a positive significant effect and incidence of internationalization has a significant negative impact).     

Unlimited shelf space in Internet supply chains: Treasure trove or wasteland?

Internet retailing offers merchants limitless shelf space. This has led experts to highlight the existence of a “long tail” of offerings on the web and assert that the future of online business is “selling less of more.” However, it is difficult for Internet retailers of physical goods to sell a large scope of products without having to handle potentially large amounts of product returns from customers. This is due to the fact that customers can and do get overwhelmed by excessive product variety and often make erroneous purchasing decisions. We shed light on this issue through an assessment of theoretical predictions based on data from sales and returns of almost 7000 products in a particular product category. While retailers can benefit from expanding the scope of their inventories to generate Internet sales, the success of this strategy will depend on the control of unjustified product returns by consumers and the management of recurrent execution errors and product fit failures in transactions with customers. Furthermore, from our results, the gains that this strategy will bring to retailers will be bound by the amount of time products have been available on the Internet retailer's site, as well as by other attributes such as product price and size.     

Equilibrium in abstract economies without ordered preferences and with a measure space of agents

We report a generalization of Aumann's (1966) existence theorem to economies without ordered preferences and with externalities in consumption. Our work can alternatively be viewed as a generalization of the Shafer–Sonnenschein (1975) theorem to economies with a continuum of agents.     

SEASONED EQUITY OFFERINGS: THE CASE OF ALL-EQUITY FIRMS

Three theories have been widely proposed to explain the significant negative market response to the announcement of a new equity issue. By observing a similar negative effect in a sample of zero and near zero long-term debt firms, we are able to conclude that the capital structure hypothesis is not the sole explanation. Regressions of announcement period abnormal returns against subsequent cashflow change while controlling for price pressure effects provide evidence in support of the information hypothesis. Decomposition of the sample by issue purpose reveals a differential impact at the time of announcement consistent with an information-based explanation.     

Age as double‐edged sword among victims of customer mistreatment: A self‐esteem threat perspective

Service workers are expected to maintain high‐quality service delivery despite customer mistreatment—the poor‐quality treatment of service workers by customers—which can be demeaning and threatening to self‐esteem. Although service work is increasingly delivered by middle‐aged and older workers, very little is known about how employees across the age range navigate abuse from customers on the job. Does advancing age help or hinder service performance in reaction to customer mistreatment? Drawing on strength and vulnerability integration theory, we proposed that age paradoxically both helps and hinders performance after customer mistreatment, albeit at different stages. We tested our proposed model in a two‐sample field investigation of service workers and their supervisors using a time‐lagged, dyadic design. Results showed that age heightens the experience of self‐esteem threat but, nevertheless, dampens reactions to self‐esteem threat, leading to divergent effects on performance at different stages. Implications for age and service work, as well as aging and the sense of self, are discussed.     

Efficiency and stability of sampling equilibrium in public goods games

Most models of social preferences and bounded rationality that are effective in explaining efficiency‐increasing departures from equilibrium behavior cannot easily account for similar deviations when they are efficiency‐reducing. We show that the notion of sampling equilibrium, subject to a suitable stability refinement, can account for behavior in both efficiency‐enhancing and efficiency‐reducing conditions. In particular, in public goods games with dominant strategy equilibria, stable sampling equilibrium can involve the play of dominated strategies with positive probability both when such behavior increases aggregate payoffs (relative to the standard prediction) and when it reduces aggregate payoffs. The dominant strategy equilibrium prediction changes abruptly from zero contribution to full contribution as a parameter crosses a threshold, whereas the stable sampling equilibrium remains fully mixed throughout. This is consistent with the available experimental evidence.     

Strategy-Specific Barriers to Learning and Nonmonotonic Selection Dynamics

The replicator dynamics are generalized to allow for strategy-specific barriers to learning. The resulting dynamics satisfy neither payoff monotonicity nor payoff positivity, but do satisfy weak payoff positivity. It is shown that initial states from which trajectories converge to a rest point under the replicator dynamics may yield trajectories which approach a stable limit cycle under the generalized replicator dynamics. Furthermore, strategies which are strictly dominated by other pure strategies may survive indefinitely along such nonconvergent paths.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: C73.