Smart fund managers? Stupid money?

Abstract .  We develop a model of mutual fund manager investment decisions near the end of quarters. We show that when investors reward better performing funds with higher cash flows, near quarter-ends a mutual fund manager has an incentive to distort new investment toward stocks in which his fund holds a large existing position. The short-term price impact of these trades increase the fund's reported returns. Higher returns are rewarded by greater subsequent fund inflows which, in turn, allow for more investment distortion the next quarter. Because the price impact of trades is short term, each subsequent quarter begins with a larger return deficit. Eventually, the deficit cannot be overcome. Thus, our model leads to the empirically observed short-run persistence and long-run reversal in fund performance. In doing so, our model provides a consistent explanation of many other seemingly contradictory empirical features of mutual fund performance.     

Meta-Analysis,Benefit Transfer,and Methodological Covariates: Implications for Transfer Error

Meta-regression models in the valuation literature demonstrate that willingness to pay estimates vary according to methodological factors. Neither theory nor characteristics of policy sites dictate the treatment of associated covariates within benefit transfer, however, and the literature provides few insights into potential impacts of common empirical treatments. This paper introduces a method to systematically characterize the impact of methodological variables on transfer error. Using a repeated leave-one-out convergent validity framework, the analysis contrasts errors for a hypothetical ideal case in which correct methodological covariate treatments are known to the realistic case in which the correct treatment is unknown. Results indicate that the common assumption of mean values for methodological covariates leads to only a modest increase in mean transfer error relative to that found in the hypothetical ideal case.     

REAL GROSS DOMESTIC INCOME,RELATIVE PRICES,AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ACROSS THE OECD

This paper uses OECD data to examine changes in labor productivity, real gross domestic product (GDP) and real gross domestic income (GDI), economic aggregates, and relative economic growth over time. Real GDI combines changes in production (real GDP) with a trading gain derived from relative price changes. The paper considers two sources of trading gains: the terms of trade, and the real exchange rate. For OECD countries, the terms of trade is the more important price ratio, making a contribution to real income growth that is, on average, an order of magnitude larger than the real exchange rate. Over long time periods, the most important source of real income growth is changes in production. Over shorter time horizons, however, the trading gain can make noteworthy contributions. Changes in aggregates like real private consumption, or the relative economic performance of nations, are shown to be particularly dependent on the trading gain during the large swings in resource prices that occurred post‐2002.     

Mid-level Managers,Organizational Context,and (Un)ethical Encounters

This article details day-to-day ethics issues facing MBAs who occupy entry-level and mid-level management positions and offers defined examples of the stressors these managers face. The study includes lower-level managers, essentially excluded from extant literature, and focuses on workplace behaviors both undertaken and observed. Results indicate that pressures from internal organization sources, and ambiguity in letter versus spirit of rules, account for over a third of the most frequent unethical situations encountered, and that most managers did not expect to face those issues. Various contextual factors accounted for 32% of the organizational factors that affected decisions. We discuss implications for the workplace, especially the unique ethics challenges for newer managers.     

DO INSTITUTIONS MITIGATE THE RISK OF NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS?

The resource curse, as manifested by an increased likelihood of conflict over rents, can be mitigated by institutions. Lei and Michaels find that discoveries of “giant” oil fields increase the likelihood of violent conflict, but they find no evidence that democratic institutions mitigate this risk. We test whether institutions mitigate the resource curse by reducing the risk of natural resource conflicts. Our results indicate that high quality economic institutions reduce the likelihood of territorial (separatist) conflicts following natural resource rent windfalls. Highly autocratic and highly democratic institutions also reduce the likelihood of territorial conflict after natural resource rent windfalls. (JEL Q34, O13, P48, D74)     

Risk of major amputation or death among patients with critical limb ischemia initially treated with endovascular intervention,surgical bypass,minor amputation,or conservative management

Aims: Patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI) have an increased risk of major amputation. The initial treatment approach for CLI may significantly impact the subsequent risk of major amputation or death. The objective of this study was to describe the initial treatment approaches of patients with CLI and the limb outcomes associated with each approach.

Methods: Data from MarketScan Commercial and Medicare Supplemental Databases from January 2006–December 2014 was utilized. Cohorts of CLI patients were defined as follows: (1) peripheral vascular intervention (PVI); (2) peripheral vascular surgery (PVS); (3) minor amputation without concomitant PVI or PVS (MinAMP); and (4) Patients without PVI, PVS, or MinAMP (conservative therapy). The odds of major amputation or inpatient death were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model. For those patients requiring a major amputation, the incremental expenditures per member per month (PMPM) were estimated using a gamma log-link model.

Results: Conservative therapy was associated with significantly higher odds of major amputation or inpatient death compared to patients who underwent minor amputation (1.59-times), PVI (2.08-times), or PVS (2.12-times). Patients treated with an initial strategy of minor amputation also had higher odds of major amputation or inpatient death compared to PVS (1.31-times) or PVI (1.33-times). The estimated incremental expenditures PMPM for patients with a major amputation was $5,165.

Conclusions: Revascularization reduces the risk of a major amputation or inpatient death for patients with CLI when compared to conservative therapy. Major amputation is also associated with significantly higher healthcare expenditures.     

Competency,prior performance,opportunity framing,and competitive response: Exploring some behavioral decision theory perspectives

Theoretical perspectives from behavioral decision research and strategic management are employed to make competing predictions of managers' competitive response decisions. Results indicate that responses of greater magnitude are more likely when an ambiguous situation surrounding the market entry of a new competitor is framed as an opportunity rather than as a threat and when the prior performance and competency of the firm are at high levels. Faster responses are more likely under high levels of competency, especially when prior performance has been good. These results run counter to two of three predictions of behavioral decision research and raise questions about limits to the generalizability of these theoretical perspectives.