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141.
Sandra J. Peart 《The Canadian journal of economics》2000,33(1):175-189
Early neoclassical economists presumed an element of irrationality in the context of intertemporal decision making. W.S. Jevons, Irving Fisher, Alfred Marshall, and A.C. Pigou observed a preference for present over future consumption, and each took this as evidence that consumer 'foresight' or 'will power' was defective. The labouring classes were said to discount future consumption to reflect uncertainty, and such discounting is regarded as 'rational.' But each of these economists focused on an additional, and purportedly 'irrational,' reason for discounting: 'impatience.' Consumers are thus said to make persistent miscalculations when it comes to decisions involving time.
Irrationalité et choix intertemporel dans les débuts de la pensée néo-classique. Les premiers économistes néo-classiques présumaient qu'il y avait un brin d'irrationalité dans le processus de décision intertemporel. W.S. Jevons, Irving Fisher, Alfred Marshall et A.C. Pigou ont observé une certaine préférence de la consommation présente par rapport à la consommation future et en ont déduit que le consommateur manquait de 'prévoyance' et de 'volonté.' On suggérait que les classes travailleuses escomptaient leur consommation future à cause de l'incertitude - ce qui était considé comme rationnel. Mais chacun de ces économistes faisait aussi appel à une raison additionnelle pour escompter la consommation future - l'impatience - un motif jugé irrationnel. On en concluait que les consommateurs faisaient des erreurs persistantes de calcul quand ils prenaient des décisions intertemporelles. 相似文献
Irrationalité et choix intertemporel dans les débuts de la pensée néo-classique. Les premiers économistes néo-classiques présumaient qu'il y avait un brin d'irrationalité dans le processus de décision intertemporel. W.S. Jevons, Irving Fisher, Alfred Marshall et A.C. Pigou ont observé une certaine préférence de la consommation présente par rapport à la consommation future et en ont déduit que le consommateur manquait de 'prévoyance' et de 'volonté.' On suggérait que les classes travailleuses escomptaient leur consommation future à cause de l'incertitude - ce qui était considé comme rationnel. Mais chacun de ces économistes faisait aussi appel à une raison additionnelle pour escompter la consommation future - l'impatience - un motif jugé irrationnel. On en concluait que les consommateurs faisaient des erreurs persistantes de calcul quand ils prenaient des décisions intertemporelles. 相似文献
142.
Sandra Plancade 《Metrika》2011,74(3):313-347
This note presents an estimator of the hazard rate function based on right censored data. A collection of estimators is built from a regression-type contrast, in a general collection of linear models. Then, a penalised model selection procedure provides an estimator which satisfies an oracle inequality. In particular, we can prove that it is adaptive in the minimax sense on Hölder spaces. 相似文献
143.
The Effective Practice Initiative is a bold attempt to introduce systematic change in the Probation Service so that its practices are based on best evidence of what works with offenders. The main elements of this holistic strategy are outlined and the key implementation issues are discussed. 相似文献
144.
145.
Sandra J. Burke 《Marketing Letters》1996,7(3):215-224
Research has shown consumers either form inferences to fill in missing information or adapt processing to accommodate missing values. This article illustrates that processing may influence which attributes are deemed necessary for the choice task and consequently inferred and that attribute-based processing,leads to inference use. The article also tests a framework that incorporates missing information, processing, inference use, and evaluation variables into a single parsimonious model that shows (1) the effects of missing information on processing and inference use and (2) the effects of inference use on evaluations. The model incorporates a link between processing and inference use that may help explain mixed results regarding the degree and direction of impact of missing information on evaluations. Finally, it explores other variables such as missing information overlap, product familiarity and importance, and attribute type that may also influence inference use. 相似文献
146.
Using a state-of-the-art microsimulation model, we analyse the redistributional effects of four different pension systems for Austria: the status quo, the new pension account system (APG), and two versions of a Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) system — one with and the other without non-contribution-based pension benefits. We identify the largest redistribution in the status quo. Women, low-income earners and persons with limited years of contributions benefit the most. The redistribution is reduced in the APG and nearly eliminated in the NDC system. We disentangle implicit and explicit redistribution in the APG system. The relative share of implicit redistribution decreases with income, whereas the absolute value of redistribution increases. 相似文献
147.
148.
Protection from natural hazards is the most important function of mountain forests from an ecological, economic and social point of view. This assertion has been widely debated in recent years by a number of authors. In this paper we focus on the economic aspects of the protective function of forests, developing a quick and simple estimation method that can be applied on a local scale. We present the results of its application in an Italian Alpine forest. After having identified the main forest attributes directly or indirectly involved in protection, the economic value of the protective function for homogeneous zones was estimated by applying the replacement cost method. This value enables environmental concerns to be included in forest planning and political decision-making. 相似文献
149.
Health care practitioners (especially doctors) have always given assurances that what they do is efficacious. But in the past 50 years justification of the effectiveness of health care interventions has attained a new prominence. Evidence, at least notionally, now lies at the heart of health care policy and practice. This article provides an overview of the generation and use of evidence on effectiveness in health care. It explains why rigorous methodologies have taken hold and describes the major preoccupation with trying to ensure that research evidence has an impact on clinical practice. The strengths and weaknesses of evidence-based health care are explored to identify the opportunities for profitable transfer of experience across the public sector. 相似文献
150.
The substantial control premium typically observed in corporate takeovers makes a compelling case for acquiring target shares (a toehold) in the market prior to launching a bid. Moreover, auction theory suggests that toehold bidding may yield a competitive advantage over rival bidders. Nevertheless, with a sample exceeding 10,000 initial control bids for US public targets, we show that toehold bidding has declined steadily since the early 1980s and is now surprisingly rare. At the same time, the average toehold is large when it occurs (20%), and toeholds are the norm in hostile bids. To explain these puzzling observations, we develop and test a two-stage takeover model where attempted merger negotiations are followed by open auction. With optimal bidding, a toehold imposes a cost on target management, causing some targets to (rationally) reject merger negotiations. Optimal toeholds are therefore either zero (to avoid rejection costs) or greater than a threshold (so that toehold benefits offset rejection costs). The toehold threshold estimate averages 9% across initial bidders, reflecting in part the bidder's opportunity loss of a merger termination agreement. In the presence of market liquidity costs, a threshold of this size may well induce a broad range of bidders to select zero toehold. As predicted, the probability of toehold bidding decreases, and the toehold size increases, with the threshold estimate. The model also predicts a relatively high frequency of toehold bidding in hostile bids, as observed. Overall, our test results are consistent with rational bidder behavior with respect to the toehold decision. 相似文献