旅游衔接2030年可持续发展目标——文献回顾与未来议程

尽管旅游业被视为落实2030年可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals,SDGs）的重要工具,但很少有研究系统梳理相关文献,导致我们对该领域的研究进展和知识缺口不明确。文章以2015—2021年Web of Science^TM数据库收录的82篇旅游类SSCI期刊文献为样本,旨在通过梳理旅游学术共同体对2030年SDGs的研究响应,揭示研究发展脉络与学术热点,并启发未来研究方向。结果发现：（1）旅游衔接2030年SDGs研究已得到旅游学术共同体的积极响应,总体经历了初期探索和快速发展两个阶段;（2）研究热点集中在旅游与消除贫困（SDG 1）、良好健康与福祉（SDG 3）、性别平等（SDG 5）、清洁饮水和卫生设施（SDG 6）、经济适用的清洁能源（SDG 7）、体面工作和经济增长（SDG 8）、减少不平等（SDG 10）、负责任消费和生产（SDG 12）、气候行动（SDG 13）、和平正义（SDG 16）等10个方面;（3）旅游业既是落实2030年SDGs的积极贡献者,但也面临诸多潜在挑战与外部威胁;（4）未来需重点拓展旅游衔接SDGs的研究框架,审视旅游对SDGs的贡献与挑战,厘清旅游影响SDGs的权衡与协同,观照旅游衔接SDGs的情境因素。     

宁国市民营企业“二次创业”实现途径研究

在百年一遇的国际金融危机的调整期,唯有在危机中引导企业锐意变革,在管理、文化、体制等方面开拓创新,提高企业经营能力和控制能力,培养核心竞争能力,民营企业才能在危机过后的下一轮发展浪潮中占据优势地位。文章在揭示、剖析宁国民营企业＂二次创业＂存在的困难与挑战的基础上,对其＂二次创业＂的实现途径进行了探究,试图为宁国民营企业指明发展方向。     

无机化学教学之我见

针对本科无机化学的学科特点,论述了教师在课堂教学的过程中,应该注重与学生的互动,启发学生思维,将多媒体与传统教学相结合。采用有效的教学方法,建立良好的课堂气氛,能增强学生的学习热情,进而提高教学质量。     

走可持续发展之路,把黄石建成可持续发展市

根据黄石资源、环境与经济的现状及特点,提出了以科教兴市为本,转变经济增长方式;发展生态农业;建立黄石区域可持续发展支撑体系等若干建议.     

浅谈营林生产中存在的问题及对策

本文主要从营林生产过程中存在的一些问题提出改进措施,从而达到提高营林生产生的目的。     

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and the Volatility of Exchange Rates after the Asian Crisis: A Counterfactual Analysis

The objective of this paper is to carry out a counterfactual analysis of the impact of alternative exchange rate regimes on the volatility of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and the bilateral rate against the US dollar for nine East Asian countries after the Asian financial crisis. Our hypothetical regimes include a unilateral basket peg (UBP), a common basket peg (CBP) and a hard peg against the dollar. We find that a UBP would minimise effective exchange rate volatility for all countries and provides the highest regime gains compared to actual. Although the gains for a CBP are always less than those for a UBP, the absolute differences between the two regimes appear to be small. In terms of the bilateral relationship against the dollar, the gains from a UBP or CBP could be quite significant for the non‐dollar peggers since a fall in effective instability would be accompanied by a fall in bilateral instability.     

My Way or High Way? New relationship of employer/employee and their respective ways of survival

Early in the gestation stage of the new labor contract law, the intensive debates sparked by worries and doubts prevailed, and the event of Huawei Group forcing their employees to re-apply for their jobs made this controversy reach fever pitch. When it came into effect on 1st January, 2008, confusions still bothered people of all sides: someone were on thorns about the increased cost and found wry ways to digest it, and someone were scramble to their rights and looked for shortcut to get it, etc. in particular, textile industry featuring labor-intensive will increase 20% on average in terms of cost, so how to cushion the blow and reverse adversity become prominent, what’s more, we should emancipate our mind to create profits rather than make ourselves balky with losses. Brand-building, technology application as well as expanding business abroad where with relatively cheap cost, etc, all of which can be utilized. In fact, launch of new labor contract law coupled with other polices home and aboard and materials cost increment lift the threshold of Chinese textile industry and rendered a new shuffling, so that the conception of "survival of the fittest" becomes the last straw we should grasp……     

A Bayesian Multiple Comparison Procedure for Order-Restricted Mixed Models

A Bayesian hierarchical mixed model is developed for multiple comparisons under a simple order restriction. The model facilitates inferences on the successive differences of the population means, for which we choose independent prior distributions that are mixtures of an exponential distribution and a discrete distribution with its entire mass at zero. We employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to obtain parameter estimates and estimates of the posterior probabilities that any two of the means are equal. The latter estimates allow one both to determine if any two means are significantly different and to test the homogeneity of all of the means. We investigate the performance of the model-based inferences with simulated data sets, focusing on parameter estimation and successive-mean comparisons using posterior probabilities. We then illustrate the utility of the model in an application based on data from a study designed to reduce lead blood concentrations in children with elevated levels. Our results show that the proposed hierarchical model can effectively unify parameter estimation, tests of hypotheses and multiple comparisons in one setting.     

展望城市社会的未来

我很高兴能来到著名的同济大学,和在座各位共同讨论二十一世纪的城市发展。我认为对于人文科学和社会学研究者,有三个问题具有根本性的意义:一、二十一世纪城市的发展将出现什么样的趋势和特点;二、我们应当如何监控城市未来的发展;三、如何将人文科学引入到城市未来的研究中去。社会学者的义务:思考城市的未来在这个世纪我们已经看到了一个现象——全球性的城市化。一些以农业为主的国家将经历一个重要的城市化过程,比如印度、巴西、还有中国。尽管中国的城市化进程正在进行之中,但我认为这将是人类历史上规模最大、影响最深的社会变动。中…