Creating Financial Cycles in China and Interaction with Business Cycles on the Chinese Economy

This study creates a Chinese financial cycle index to examine the lead-and-lag relations between business and financial cycles. We examine the macroeconomic performance when these cycles are in boom, bust, and other combinations. We have four interesting results. First, financial cycles occur less frequently than business cycles. Second, the upturn phase of a financial cycle is significantly longer than the downturn phase. Third, gross domestic product growth rates are at their lowest when the two cycles are in troughs and the highest when they reach their peaks. We find similar results for employment, inflation, and consumption rates. Fourth, financial cycles lead business cycles but not vice versa. Hence, policymakers should consider the financial system before bailing out the real economy, which alone is insufficient for the recovery of the macro economy.     

沉默权的国际人权标准与国内现实

随着国际人权运动的深入发展,包括沉默权在内的旨在保障犯罪嫌疑人、被告人权利的制度,不断在各国刑事诉讼制度中得以确立。我国已签署了《公民权利和政治权利国际公约》,而公约的"反对强迫自证其罪"与我国刑事诉讼法所确立的犯罪嫌疑人、被告人"如实供述义务"是相悖的。针对沉默权人权标准国际化趋势,应对沉默权在我国的设置作出应然思考与实然分析。     

企业知识资本积累路径优化机制分析——基于产品生命周期理论

知识资本的积累方式及其效率关系到企业持续发展。从外部交易、内部衍生两种知识积累方式为出发点,结合产品生命周期特点以及知识内部转移、共享的激励方式,分析得出了企业在知识资本积累过程中,基于产品生命周期的特征而进行路径优化的建议,对企业在提高知识资本积累效率方面的投资具有一定的参考意义。     

浅谈广西南丹县新纳力水电站大坝复合土工膜心墙的施工

文章主要叙述广西南丹县新纳力水电站复合土工膜心墙堆石坝复合土工膜作为防渗心墙的施工.解决复合土工膜与大坝坝体填筑之间交叉作业的矛盾,以达到大坝快速优质上升的目的,为类似的工程提供了借鉴.     

功能点方法在软件项目管理中的应用

软件度量是管理、控制和改进软件项目的基础,然而软件规模的概念没有被很好地理解,也没有得到广泛应用。与传统的代码行度量相比较,采用功能点作为规模度量单位具有准确、一致的优点。它在软件定价、变更管理、项目估算等方面可以起到积极的作用。软件度量已成为一项基本的软件项目管理实践,借助功能点分析方法构建起一套完整可行的软件度量体系,将有利于辅助改善软件工程的各个环节。     

Evaluating the effectiveness of Washington state repeated job search services on the employment rate of prime-age female welfare recipients

This paper uses an unbalanced panel dataset to evaluate how repeated job search services (JSS) and personal characteristics affect the employment rate of the prime-age female welfare recipients in the State of Washington. We propose a transition probability model to take into account issues of sample attrition, sample refreshment and duration dependence. We also generalize Honoré and Kyriazidou’s [Honoré, B.E., Kyriazidou, E., 2000. Panel data discrete choice models with lagged dependent variables. Econometrica 68 (4), 839–874] conditional maximum likelihood estimator to allow for the presence of individual-specific effects. A limited information test is suggested to test for selection issues in non-experimental data. The specification tests indicate that the (conditional on the set of the confounding variables considered) assumptions of no selection due to unobservables and/or no unobserved individual-specific effects are not violated. Our findings indicate that the first job search service does have positive and significant impacts on the employment rate. However, providing repeated JSS to the same client has no significant impact. Further, we find that there are significant experience-enhancing effects. These findings suggest that providing one job search services training to individuals may have a lasting impact on raising their employment rates.     

我国利息税税负累进程度分析——以北京地区为例

税负累进程度是指税收负担随收入数额的增加而提高的程度,它是衡量税收公平的指标.对我国现行利息税税负累进性的分析表明,当前5%的税率下,利息税的税负累进性微弱,20%的税率更能增强利息税的税负累进性.要强化利息税的公平功能,可能的政策途径有:提高利息税税率;设定起征点,采用累进税率;并入个人所得税实行合并征收;加强对利息税收入的二次分配.     

中国股票市场对货币需求冲击的实证研究

随着股票市场不断发展和壮大,已成为中央银行货币政策传导机制中的重要环节.本文利用最新的数据,运用现代计量经济实证分析方法,研究股票市场价格对货币供应量的影响程度.结果显示股票市场的发展倾向于减少M1和M2,且对M2的影响比M1小.进而提出中央银行应以股票价格为参考指标,充分运用货币政策工具,防范系统性金融风险的政策建议.     

我国注册会计师行业监管效率研究

基于2002年11月财政部发布的19号文,财政部收回了原委托中国注册会计师协会代为行使的行政监管权,从而我国开始实施财政部门行政监管与注册会计师协会行业自律监管并重的注册会计师行业监管体制。此举引起社会各界人士的质疑,这次权力的交接是否会导致监管效率的变化?本文对19号文前后共五年的数据进行研究。研究结果表明,财政部收回行政监管权后,新的监管体制使审计质量比之前有显著的提升,且主要对非四大会计师事务所而言有显著的影响,对四大会计师事务所影响则不显著。     

浅谈广西南丹县新纳力水电站大坝复合土工膜心墙的施工

文章主要叙述广西南丹县新纳力水电站复合土工膜心墙堆石坝复合土工膜作为防渗心墙的施工。解决复合土工膜与大坝坝体填筑之间交叉作业的矛盾,以达到大坝快速优质上升的目的,为类似的工程提供了借鉴。