应急管理中的敏捷创新：基于健康码的案例研究

面对紧急情况下的各种约束，当事方很容易陷入路径依赖，从而不能实现真正的创新。但在2019年底的新冠疫情应对中，中国健康码异军突起，实现了敏捷创新。选取最具代表性的两类健康码，基于一手访谈和公开报道资料，还原健康码从孕育到成熟的全过程，发现其模式与按部就班的传统创新几乎完全相反。通过与另外3组共6类健康码对照，归纳出打破路径依赖、实现敏捷创新所需的3个条件：制度弹性、应变能力和领导能力。结论对改进科研管理以及理解创新本质具有一定启发。     

贵州省养老服务产业需求与发展障碍调查研究

以问卷调查方式,在对贵州省5个市区养老服务机构进行走访调查的基础上,分析了贵州省养老服务产业的供给与需求概况,提出促进养老服务产业发展的建议,主要包括完善城乡基本养老保险制度,促进区域经济协调展;加大政策宣传力度,改变养老传统观念;整合资源供给,实现医养结合优势互补;精确服务定位,提升养老机构服务水平。     

平台到生态系统成长的势效应——基于iOS移动操作系统的案例研究

移动互联网的快速兴起不仅推动操作系统平台成为移动通讯产业新的竞争制高点，更加速传统通讯行业竞争格局向操作系统生态竞争转变。现有研究关于平台到生态系统的演进成长机理仍不甚清晰，通过引入平台势概念，描述平台到生态系统的持续成长历程，并对iOS移动操作系统开展探索性案例研究，尝试从持续、动态视角打开平台成长为生态系统过程的“黑箱”。研究发现，平台到生态系统的持续成长不仅存在显著阶段性特征，即平台企业在不同发展阶段不仅会依据平台发展特性、需求和组织情境特征，形成不同战略重点与目标，还蕴含着平台势的复杂积聚过程，平台势持续积聚推动着平台到生态系统的持续演进发展；不同发展阶段下，平台的借势型、造势型和应势型战略行动使平台势变化呈现出从逐渐积聚到逐渐加速积聚，再到积聚速度呈加快—减缓—加快形式的转换过程，从而影响平台到生态系统的演进成长进程。     

Detecting Financial Collapse and Ballooning Sovereign Risk

This paper proposes a new model for capturing discontinuities in the underlying financial environment that can lead to abrupt falls, but not necessarily sustained monotonic falls, in asset prices. This notion of price dynamics is consistent with existing understanding of market crashes, which allows for a mix of market responses that are not universally negative. The model may be interpreted as a martingale composed with a randomized drift process that is designed to capture various asymmetric drivers of market sentiment. In particular, the model is capable of generating realistic patterns of price meltdowns and bond yield inflations that constitute major market reversals while not necessarily being always monotonic in form. The recursive and moving window methods developed in Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015a,b; PSY), which were designed to detect exuberance in financial and economic data, are shown to have detective capacity for such meltdowns and expansions. This characteristic of the PSY tests has been noted in earlier empirical studies by the present authors and other researchers but no analytic reasoning has yet been given to explain why methods intended to capture the expansionary phase of a bubble may also detect abrupt and broadly sustained collapses. The model and asymptotic theory developed in the present paper together explain this property of the PSY procedures. The methods are applied to analyse S&P 500 stock prices and sovereign risk in European Union countries over 2001–16 using government bond yields and credit default swap (CDS) premia. A pseudo real‐time empirical analysis of these data shows the effectiveness of the monitoring strategy in capturing key events and turning points in market risk assessment.     

科研不端行为特征与治理对策——国家自然科学基金披露科研不端行为的实证分析

世界著名学术出版商斯普林格（Springer）将刊载于旗下《肿瘤生物学》期刊（Tumor Biology）涉嫌伪造同行评议的中国学者的107篇论文撤稿，引发了社会各界对中国科研不端行为的关注与反思。以2013-2016年国家自然科学基金委员会披露的两批《科研不端行为典型案例及处理决定》中77件科研不端行为的88名涉事人员为样本，发现科研不端行为源于激励诱惑与制度要求、科学家角色冲突与角色序列冲突以及奖励制度与评价制度不对称的共谋。基于此，提出应建立健全科研数据公开机制，加快学术诚信体系建设，深化绩效考核制度改革，平衡奖励制度与处罚制度等政策建议，以维护学术诚信、改善科研生态、预防学术不端。     

试论房地产评估中的建筑物的损耗浅析

章阐述房屋建筑损耗的概念及分类，提出计算损耗的见解。     

提高建筑工程材料质量

建筑材料的质量和建筑工程的质量密切相关,建筑材料质量的好坏直接影响着建筑工程的质量,直接影响着建筑物的结构和各项使用功能,更直接影响到建筑的长期使用寿命。本文从以下几方面阐述了监理人员对建筑材料的控制措施。     

快递企业客户价值定位研究

从了解客户感知角度出发,分析隐藏于客户满意度后面的客户价值观,并尝试对其分类或者定位,进而探讨对于具有不同价值观基础的客户群之服务运营策略及快递企业竞争力路径.     

Procedural volume,cost, and reimbursement of outpatient incisional hernia repair: implications for payers and providers

Objective: This analysis aimed to evaluate trends in volumes and costs of primary elective incisional ventral hernia repairs (IVHRs) and investigated potential cost implications of moving procedures from inpatient to outpatient settings.

Methods: A time series study was conducted using the Premier Hospital Perspective^® Database (Premier database) for elective IVHR identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth revision, Clinical Modification codes. IVHR procedure volumes and costs were determined for inpatient, outpatient, minimally invasive surgery (MIS), and open procedures from January 2008–June 2015. Initial visit costs were inflation-adjusted to 2015?US dollars. Median costs were used to analyze variation by site of care and payer. Quantile regression on median costs was conducted in covariate-adjusted models. Cost impact of potential outpatient migration was estimated from a Medicare perspective.

Results: During the study period, the trend for outpatient procedures in obese and non-obese populations increased. Inpatient and outpatient MIS procedures experienced a steady growth in adoption over their open counterparts. Overall median costs increased over time, and inpatient costs were often double outpatient costs. An economic model demonstrated that a 5% shift of inpatient procedures to outpatient MIS procedures can have a cost surplus of?～?US $1.8 million for provider or a cost-saving impact of US $1.7 million from the Centers for Medicare &; Medicaid Services perspective.

Limitations: The study was limited by information in the Premier database. No data were available for IVHR cases performed in free-standing ambulatory surgery centers or federal healthcare facilities.

Conclusion: Volumes and costs of outpatient IVHRs and MIS procedures increased from January 2008–June 2015. Median costs were significantly higher for inpatients than outpatients, and the difference was particularly evident for obese patients. A substantial cost difference between inpatient and outpatient MIS cases indicated a financial benefit for shifting from inpatient to outpatient MIS.