Author’s Reply: Principal Applications of Bayesian Methods in Actuarial Science: A Perspective - Discussion by Marjorie A. Rosenberg; M. Mendoza; Francisco José VáZquez-Polo; James C. Hickman; Donald A. Jones; Enrique de Alba; David P. M. Scollnik

Abstract

This paper considers the pricing of equity-indexed annuities (EIAs). Traditionally, the values of the guarantees embedded in these contracts are priced by modeling the underlying index fund while keeping the interest rates constant. The assumption of constant interest rates becomes unrealistic in pricing and hedging the EIAs since the embedded guarantees are often of much longer maturity. To solve this problem, the authors propose an economic model that has the flexibility of modeling the underlying index fund as well as the interest rates. Some popular EIAs are illustrated to assess the implication of the proposed model.     

Business Cycle Co‐movement between Australia and East Asia

This article analyses business cycle co‐movement between Australia and 10 major economies in the East‐Asian region by using two measures: concordance indices and correlation coefficients. The results from the concordance index suggest that Australia's business cycle is becoming increasingly synchronised with those in East Asia, particularly with China and Japan. The correlation coefficients of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the deviation of real GDP from its trend between Australia and its East‐Asian neighbours are also significantly higher since 2000, relative to the correlation coefficients found for the 1990s. The growing importance of East Asia in Australia's economic future implies that the risks facing the economy have changed and Australia needs to engage in more macroeconomic policy dialogues with its neighbouring economies to improve their policy responses.     

企业突破“双重制约”的通途——VE/VM

企业在市场与资金双重制约下,通过运用价值工程/价值管理走出困境,是当前最现实的选择.     

Information acquisition in the ultimatum game: An experimental study

We experimentally investigate if free information disadvantages a player relative to when information is unavailable. We study an Ultimatum game where the Proposer, before making an offer, can obtain free information about the Responder's minimum acceptable offer. Theoretically, the Proposer should obtain the information and play a best reply to the Responder's minimum acceptable offer. Thus the Responder should get the largest share of the surplus. We find that an increasing number of Proposers become informed over time. Moreover, the proportion of Proposers who use the information to maximize money earnings increases over time. The majority of information-acquiring Proposers, however, refuse to offer more than one-half and play a best reply only to Responders who accept offers of one-half or less. This, together with a substantial proportion of Proposers who choose to remain uninformed, means that the availability of free information backfires for Proposers only by a little. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at . JEL Classification C70, D63, D80     

润滑油企业产品标准编写过程中若干问题的探讨

产品标准是表述产品质量的基本技术文件,是企业标准体系的核心。针对企业产品标准审查工作,结合标准编写的规范要求,对润滑油企业产品标准编写过程中常见的问题进行了探讨。     

论我国财政收入规模与结构的科学化及实现途径

通过对我国财政收入规模和结构的实证分析，可得到财政收入规模的合理区间范围；通过对中央和地方一般预算收入分级比重情况、税收收入和非税收入结构情况以及税收收入结构情况的分析，可取得财政收入结构的合理区间范围，以实现我国财政收入运行科学化。     

西部小企业与农村生态环境和谐共生框架的构造

西部小企业要实现可持续发展，离不开社会一经济一生态三者的和谐共生。西部小企业在发展中出现了与所处农村生态环境断裂的现象，本文认为其中的主要原因是资源条件恶劣、生产技术水平低下、对西部小企业的评价体系不完善、二元经济结构、与市场经济相适应的政府功能缺住等。进一步地，本文分析了建立西部小企业与农村生态环境的和谐共生的机制，并就如何因地制宜实现西部中小企业与农村生态环境的和谐共生提出了一些看法。认为需要转变经济增长的方式、优化产业结构、提高政府调控能力、完善西部小企业发展的评判机制。     

Health Information and Subjective Survival Probability: Evidence from Taiwan

The effect of new health information on individuals' expectations about their longevity is examined using a Bayesian learning model. Using two‐period panel‐structured survey data from Taiwan, we find that subjective probabilities of living to age 75 and 85 are significantly smaller for respondents with more abnormal medical test outcomes and for those receiving more extensive advice on health behavior from their physicians. The subjective probability of survival declines with health shocks such as developing heart disease. Using pooled cross‐sectional data, we find that males and married persons are more optimistic about their longevity expectations than females and single persons, and that income is strongly correlated with the subjective probability of living to age 75. Consistent with previous studies, the longevity of the same‐sex parent is strongly associated with an individual's own expectation of living to age 75.     

长江三角洲城市可持续发展综合评价

长江三角洲是中国经济最发达地区,其可持续发展状况具有很强的示范效应。该文从经济、社会和资源环境三个方面构建体现城市可持续发展水平的综合指标体系,运用因子分析法对长江三角洲16个城市的可持续发展状况进行综合评价,指出各城市存在经济结构不合理,科教投入不足,城市系统内部发展不协调等问题,从区域角度提出完善经济结构,加大资金投入,提高人口素质,加大资源环境治理力度,城市之间加强合作与交流,全面提升区域可持续发展能力的建议。