UNAUTHORIZED IMMIGRANTS' ACCESS TO DRIVER'S LICENSES AND AUTO INSURANCE COVERAGE

Fourteen states and the District of Columbia allow unauthorized immigrants to obtain driver's licenses. Using variation in the timing and location of these policy changes, we show these Unauthorized Immigrant License Polices (UILPs) are associated with a 1% increase in both the number of licensed drivers and liability insurance coverage, although we do not document a statistically significant relationship with auto insurance claims. Nor do we detect a significant relationship between UILPs and the number of miles driven, vehicle registrations, air quality, or travel behaviors. Overall, our results are consistent with UILPs licensing unauthorized immigrants who were already driving. (JEL R48, G22, K37)     

Credit rationing and firm exports: Microeconomic evidence from small and medium‐sized enterprises in China

This paper examines the effect of credit rationing on export performance by small and medium‐sized firms in China. We use a detailed firm‐level data provided by the Small and Medium‐sized Enterprises Dynamic Survey (SMEDS) during 2015–16 to conduct this analysis. The SMEDS provides firm‐specific measures of credit rationing based directly on firm‐level responses to the survey rather than indirect ones, based on firm‐level financial statements. We find that, at the extensive margin, weak and strong credit rationing reduces export probability of small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) by 15.1% and 39.6%, respectively. At the intensive margin, they decrease SMEs' export values by more than 20.0% and over 28.8%, respectively. Different than existing literature, we construct valid firm‐level instruments, firm‐level housing stock, for credit rationing rather than using province‐level instruments. We also employ county‐industry‐level instruments and obtain consistent estimates. In addition, credit rationing exhibits heterogeneous impacts on firms with different liquidity ratios, product portfolios, external collateral and capital utilisation rates.     

Overconfidence Mediates How Perception of past Portfolio Returns Affects Investment Behaviors

Investors’ perception of past portfolio returns predicts their investment behavior, but does this relationship mediate by overconfidence? Taking into account different aspects of overconfidence, this paper examines whether overconfidence manifested as illusion of control, miscalibration and better-than-average mediates the association between perception of past portfolio returns and investment behavior. In a survey study with individual and institutional investors from Malaysia, the results indicate that perception of higher past portfolio returns increases investors’ trading, percentage of risky share investment and the number of financial asset holding, through the mediating channel of better-than-average effect. While individual investors are influenced by this overconfidence mechanism, institutional investors are not sensitive. This finding has theoretical implication for overconfidence model, house money effect and naïve reinforcement learning. Practically, the results imply that individual investors should be careful about underlying overconfidence biases as it can lead to inefficient decisions.     

A method towards Web service combination for cross-organisational business process using QoS and cluster

How to quickly combine various Web services to support cross-organisational business processes is the key technical problem in service computing. Because of the changeability of QoS of Web services, the traditional methods are unadaptable to the new environments. In this paper, a new service composition method, called Improved Self-organising neural network Method for Web Service Composition, is proposed to achieve QoS-aware Web service combination, according to using the clustering technology. First, fuzzy mathematics is used to express each QoS attribute and the improved self-organising neural network is used to cluster services to reduce the number of candidate services. Secondly, all the centre of each cluster is selected and formed a composite service by using an exhaustive algorithm. Thirdly, the service cluster that is represented by the concrete services. Finally, the optimal service combination can be selected using integer programming or genetic algorithm. The experimental result shows the efficiency of Web service composition and demonstrates the applicability.     

Financial Competitiveness,Financial Openness and Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment

ABSTRACT

In this article, we test the impacts of financial competitiveness and financial openness on bilateral FDI with novel indexes, covering 127 host countries and 122 home countries from 2009 to 2016. We find that the improvement of financial competitiveness and financial openness significantly increases the FDI assets in the home country and significantly increases the FDI liabilities in the host country. In particular, the impacts of financial competitiveness and financial openness are significant both on the intensive and extensive margins. In addition, the above results remain robust in further analyses, such as using sub-index of financial competitiveness, using quantile regression model, considering capital control on FDI and dealing with the endogenous problem. The study demonstrates the financial competitiveness and financial openness are important factors to explain why FDI positions are relatively small in some developing countries.     

Stable Discovery of Interpretable Subgroups via Calibration in Causal Studies

Building on Yu and Kumbier's predictability, computability and stability (PCS) framework and for randomised experiments, we introduce a novel methodology for Stable Discovery of Interpretable Subgroups via Calibration (StaDISC), with large heterogeneous treatment effects. StaDISC was developed during our re-analysis of the 1999–2000 VIGOR study, an 8076-patient randomised controlled trial that compared the risk of adverse events from a then newly approved drug, rofecoxib (Vioxx), with that from an older drug naproxen. Vioxx was found to, on average and in comparison with naproxen, reduce the risk of gastrointestinal events but increase the risk of thrombotic cardiovascular events. Applying StaDISC, we fit 18 popular conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimators for both outcomes and use calibration to demonstrate their poor global performance. However, they are locally well-calibrated and stable, enabling the identification of patient groups with larger than (estimated) average treatment effects. In fact, StaDISC discovers three clinically interpretable subgroups each for the gastrointestinal outcome (totalling 29.4% of the study size) and the thrombotic cardiovascular outcome (totalling 11.0%). Complementary analyses of the found subgroups using the 2001–2004 APPROVe study, a separate independently conducted randomised controlled trial with 2587 patients, provide further supporting evidence for the promise of StaDISC.     

Analysis of the relationship between the perceived extent of a tourist destination and smartphone use

Service Business - This study considers the relationship between lack of interest (as a leisure constraint), practical travel motivation (desire to visit famous and recommended destinations), and...     

From fantasy to reality: a study of pre-trip planning from the perspective of destination image attributes and temporal psychological distance

Pre-leisure trip planning is often lengthy, and its consideration shifts from fantasy to reality. Using overseas international cities as the destination, and through destination image attributes, this paper uses construal level theory and temporal psychological distance to understand the dynamics behind this shift. The shift is, by and large, as predicted by construal level theory. This study shows that tourists are consistently concerned about certain attributes as the shift unfolds. It is recognized that although tourism is dream packed, it is filled with risks and constraints. The shift also reflects tourists’ increasing needs to address practical issues and to fill their itinerary as a trip approaches. This study proposes that the destination information provision service offered by DMOs have to address the needs for tourists to ‘dream’ about a destination, allay their concerns, and help them schedule their itinerary at various phases of the pre-trip planning stage.     

The impact of sustained attention on labor market outcomes: The case of Ghana

In this paper, we go beyond traditional measures of cognitive abilities (IQ) in explaining labor market and social outcomes in developing countries. We exploit a rich dataset from Ghana that provides information on demographics, labor market outcomes, and a direct measure of cognitive ability along with other test scores to construct a measure of sustained attention. Our work is therefore related to the broader literature in psychology on the importance of executive function on individual behavior and outcomes. We find that, at least for the case of Ghana, after controlling for IQ and other covariates, higher levels of sustained attention are associated with higher educational attainment and a higher likelihood of being employed in a white‐collar job.     

Who likes jargon? The joint effect of jargon type and industry knowledge on investors’ judgments

We experimentally investigate how jargon affects investment willingness for investors with different industry knowledge, and whether such effects vary with good or bad jargon. We find that for investors without industry knowledge, jargon decreases investment willingness because it decreases understanding. However, for investors with some but low industry knowledge, jargon increases investment willingness because it increases perceived product premium. Such effects exist whether good or bad jargon is used. Finally, investors with high industry knowledge differentiate between good and bad jargon, and reduce investment willingness only when bad jargon is used. These findings have implications for regulators, managers, and investors.